Six low-profile bullpen trade targets for the Mariners
Seattle has a pair of dynamic late-inning relievers. But the team would benefit from adding another supporting cast member to its bullpen this month.
The return of Gregory Santos from a season-long IL stint is somewhat akin to the Mariners adding a quality relief arm via trade. His presence immediately improves the potency of the back of the bullpen.
Still, as we’ve seen with Santos, Matt Brash, Andrés Muñoz, Gabe Speier, and potentially Ryne Stanek, the injury-related absences of key contributors can wreak havoc on any bullpen. For this reason alone, acquiring reliever depth before the MLB trade deadline makes sense to me.
With this perceived need in mind, I identified six lesser-known candidates capable of bolstering Seattle’s bullpen for a second-half race to the postseason. Sorry, no high-profile names frequently mentioned in trade speculation, such as Mason Miller or Tanner Scott.
Sure, acquiring Miller, Scott, or someone of that ilk would be cool and exciting. But doing so would likely require expending valuable resources, which would be better used to upgrade an underperforming Mariners lineup.
Our first reliever is someone Seattle faced just last month.
Robert Garcia, LH - Nationals
Selling points: Garcia’s .252 xwOBA is superb - 20th-best among 315 relievers facing 50-plus hitters. No Seattle pitcher with at least 10 innings pitched this season has a better xwOBA than the former UC Davis Aggie. The closest Mariner is Bryan Woo (.254).
Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) uses quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle) to determine what should’ve happened to batted balls. A key advantage to xwOBA is defense (good or bad) doesn’t influence it. This gives us a truer sense of how a hitter or pitcher is performing.
Garcia’s superb xwOBA is being driven by several factors. Opponents have a 30.1-percent hard-hit rate against him, eight points below the MLB average for relievers. Moreover, the 15th-round pick in 2017 boasts a top-25 barrel rate. Garcia has also proven adept at avoiding contact altogether with a top-15 strikeout rate.
This year, Garcia has also demonstrated a knack for avoiding fly balls. His 10.8-percent fly ball rate is third-lowest among relievers allowing 50-plus batted balls.
Potential concerns: Garcia has garnered much better outcomes against left-handed hitters than righty bats this season.
Garcia Platoon Splits (2024)
vs RHH: 81 PA/.280 AVG/.325 OBP/.400 SLG
vs LHH: 60 PA/.208 AVG/.283 OBP/.321 SLG
While Garcia has limited batted balls being put into the air, opponents have managed to produce an unsightly .359 AVG on ground balls. That’s 13th-highest among 199 relievers allowing 30-plus grounders.
Thoughts: Garcia has been a productive member of Washington’s bullpen despite his unfavorable platoon splits. Much like Tayler Saucedo has done for manager Scott Servais in Seattle this year. Coincidentally, Garcia (..400) and Saucedo (.392) have a relatively SLG against righties.
As for Garcia’s ground ball issues, it’s plausible his supporting cast is the culprit. The Nationals’ ranks 27th with minus-13 OAA (outs above average). For context, the Mariners (minus-1 OAA) are mid-pack.
Lucas Erceg, RH - Athletics
Selling points: Erceg strikes out lots of hitters and limits walks to an average-ish rate. The former second rounder has also held opponents to strong 33-percent hard-hit and 5.7-percent barrel rates.
Half of the batted balls surrendered by Erceg have been ground balls. A good thing considering the Menlo College alum has held opponents to a .182 AVG on grounders -MLB AVG is .247.
For much of the season, Erceg has served as eighth-inning setup man. That said, the Cal Berkeley product has occasionally made multi-inning relief appearances for A’s skipper Mark Kotsay. So far, he’s logged multiple frames in a game six times, including a pair of two-inning affairs.
Potential concerns: Erceg has been effective at containing right-handed bats. But left-handed hitters have excelled against him.
Erceg’s Platoon Splits (2024)
vs RHH: 81 PA/.218 AVG/.247 OBP/.308 SLG
vs LHH: 61 PA/.229 AVG/.393 OBP/.438 SLG
Thoughts: Erceg isn’t a standout. Yet, he does most things well. For this reason, he could be a nice addition to the supporting cast of a top bullpen - like Seattle’s.
Links to other deadline-related posts
Intriguing infield candidates
Potential outfield targets
Three familiar DH candidates
Will the Mariners go “all-in” at the deadline?
Talk is cheap, action speaks
Sam Moll, LHP - Reds
Selling points: Within our group of 315 relievers, only two have a better xwOBA than the five-year veteran: Miller (.194) and Kirby Yates (.212) of the Rangers. Not a surprise considering Moll has a top-10 hard-hit rate, a superb 3.1-percent barrel rate, and controls the zone with above-average strikeout and walk rates.
Moll has experienced better success against left-handed hitters. But unlike Garcia, he’s managed to hold right-handed bats to average-ish production numbers.
Moll’s Platoon Splits (2024)
vs RHH: 51 PA/.239 AVG/.314 OBP/.391 SLG
vs LHH: 39 PA/.167 AVG/.205 OBP/.167 SLG
To date, Moll has allowed just one home run to the 90 batters he’s faced. It’s worth noting the Memphis alum surrendered just two dingers in 268 plate confrontations last year.
Potential concerns: Moll missed the first month of this season with a shoulder impingement. A strain to the same joint cost the 2013 third round pick the final two weeks of the 2022 campaign.
Ironically, Moll has much better home numbers this season at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park than on the road. Away from the Queen City, opponents have a .848 OPS against the Tennessean. At home, it’s a much more appealing .387 OPS.
Thoughts: Moll may not be viewed as a high-leverage arm. But that’s okay. Adding a versatile reliever capable of getting the ball to the late-inning arms by limiting damaging contact would be beneficial to the Mariners or any contender.
Dylan Floro, RH - Nationals
Selling points: Floro’s 1.5-percent barrel rate is 12th-best. Avoiding the most damaging type of contact has led to the Cal State Fullerton alum boasting a top-20 SLG. Moreover, he’s one of four relievers to face 150-plus hitters and not allow a home run. The others: are Calvin Faucher and Declan Cronin of Miami and Joe Mantiply of Arizona.
Floro has been impressive against all hitters regardless of handedness. The Merced, California product enters the All-Star break with a .520 OPS against right-handed hitters and .513 OPS versus left-handed hitters.
If necessary, Floro can give his manager more than one inning at a time. The 33-year-old has eight multi-inning appearances this year, including three occasions when he logged two frames.
Potential concerns: This isn’t exactly a concern, but Floro isn’t the prototypical “swing & miss” reliever many bullpens are teeming with these days. His strikeout rate is about three points below the MLB average for relievers.
Floro hasn’t been terrible on the road. But his first-half splits suggest he likes home cooking. The veteran of nine seasons has a .464 OPS at Nationals Park, a venue viewed as welcoming to hitters than pitchers. Conversely, he has a .569 OPS away from the nation’s capital.
Thoughts: If you overlook Floro’s peculiar home/away splits, he looks a viable option for buyers in the market for a solid reliever.
Derek Law, RH - Nationals
Selling points: Law doesn’t have standout numbers. But he possesses a skill not demonstrated by the relievers we’ve discussed thus far. The Pennsylvania native can deliver multiple innings on a regular basis. Perhaps the Mariners could use such an arm.
Twenty-one of Law’s 46 appearances this season have lasted at least 1.1 innings. Only former Mariner Luke Weaver (24) and Ryan Yarbrough (23) have more than the pride of Seton LaSalle Catholic High School. Furthermore, ten of Law’s 21 longer outings lasted two innings. He even logged three frames on one occasion.
Potential concerns: Law is on a trajectory to throw a career-high number of innings. He’s already matched last year’s tally and we’re only at the All-Star break. Does this matter?
Hard to tell with an experienced pro like Law. But it’s worth noting the Miami Dade College product did experience an elbow injury, which sidelined him for six weeks last season. Furthermore, a shoulder issue caused Law to miss the second half of the 2021 campaign.
Thoughts: Adding a reliever, who could potentially be innings-constrained later this season could be a risky undertaking. Then again, Mariners appear to have done relatively well at managing the pitching staff’s workload. If Seattle or another team were to acquire Law, I would assume the proper homework was done on the eight-year veteran.
Nick Martinez, RH - Reds
Selling points: The Fordham University product has demonstrated the ability to transition between the starting rotation and the bullpen, when needed. This season, five of his 28 appearances have been starts.
Martinez is arguably the best in baseball at avoiding loud contact. Among 131 pitchers relievers facing at least 250 hitters this year, his 28.9-percent hard-hit rate leads the pack. The veteran right-hander’s 3.9-percent barrel rate is also lowest within this group.
Martinez’s ability to minimize damage has curtailed home run production against him. His 0.8 HR/9 innings ties for 17th-lowest with recognizable names such as George Kirby, Max Fried, Tarik Skubal, Seth Lugo, Garrett Crochet, Hunter Greene, Zack Wheeler, and Zac Gallen.
The Miami, Florida native has been quite stingy when it comes to surrendering walks, too. Only Zach Eflin (2.2-percent) and Kirby (2.8-percent) have lower walk rates than Martinez (three-percent).
Potential concerns: As with Floro, Martinez doesn’t generate a lot of whiffs. His 18.9-percent is nearly four points below the MLB average. For context, only two Mariners have lower strikeout rates than the 33-year-old: Bryan Woo (17.1-percent) and Emerson Hancock (13.1-percent).
Martinez’s .402 SLG is higher than you might expect for someone so proficient at limiting home runs and loud contact. This can be traced back to allowing 19 doubles in just 296 plate confrontations.
It’s a small sample, but it should be discussed nonetheless. Martinez has been far more effective out of the bullpen than as a starter this year.
Martinez’s SP/RP Splits (2024)
As SP: 25.2 IP/7.36 ERA/.348 AVG/.527 SLG
As RP: 46.1 IP/1.95 ERA/.217 AVG/.320 SLG
Thoughts: Considering the Mariners may need someone to cover innings or starts for their young starters later this season, Martinez is an intriguing name to consider.
Regarding his higher-than-expected SLG appears to be a product of pitching home games at Great American Ball Park. Opponents are slugging .451 against Martinez in Cincinnati, but a much more palatable .321 on the road.
As for Martinez’s extreme splits as a starter and reliever, I’m not concerned. Sure, a 7.36 ERA as a starting pitcher doesn’t scream “must have” for the Mariners. But he wouldn’t be pitching his home games for the Reds any longer. Instead, he’d benefit from a home field advantage provided by T-Mobile Park.
Parting shots
As always, the on-field accomplishments of players were the focus of our conversation, not the business stuff. However, I will note several of the names we discussed aren’t arbitration eligible for several years. Therefore, potential sellers may not be inclined to move these players this summer.
Something else to consider. The pitchers listed above may not be what the Mariners are looking for this summer, which is a distinct possibility. After all, I stink at predicting what this team’s front office will do.
They’re a lot smarter than me.
My Oh My…
Going after a RP makes sense if the mariners are buyers…are they sellers now?