Intriguing infield trade candidates for the Mariners
Intriguing infield trade candidates for the Mariners
Seattle's lineup could us some help. Could any of these infielders be part of the solution?
With the MLB trade deadline about a month away, we should discuss potential options for the Mariners. Most fans expect Seattle to address its offense, which has been unable to consistently plate enough runs in support of the team’s outstanding pitching staff. Therefore, expectations are high.
Let’s start with infielders capable of having a positive impact on Seattle’s lineup. At later dates, we’ll get around to outfielders and designated hitters - maybe even catchers. A few notes, first.
Each player’s tables will illustrate when he reaches free agency. However, my focus was on-field performance, not the business side. Therefore, I’m sharing what the stats say to me about these interesting hitters.
Also, it’s important to consider some or all of the players we’re about to discuss may or may not be available for trade. Furthermore, it’s possible the Mariners may not be interested in some of the names listed below for a variety of reasons.
Okay, first up is a big thumper from the Big Apple.
Pete Alonso, 1B - Mets
Selling points: As we discussed in May, Alonso is one of the best home run hitters in baseball. Dating back to the beginning of the 2021 season, only three players have more home runs than the Polar Bear’s 139 bombs: Aaron Judge (168), Shohei Ohtani (149), and Kyle Schwarber (142).
As mentioned in the past, Alonso is an effective run producer at Citi Field, which according to Statcast, is the second-worst hitting environment in MLB with only Seattle’s T-Mobile Park being more challenging. In 1,590 career plate appearances at home, the Florida alum boasts a .237 AVG/.333 OBP/.486 SLG slash-line with an impressive 5.9-percent home run rate.
For a slugger, Alonso has effectively limited his swing and miss. The right-handed hitter’s 20-percent strikeout rate is slightly more than two-percent below the MLB average (22.2-percent) For context, the only Mariner with at least 100 plate appearances and a lower strikeout rate than Alonso’s is Josh Rojas (19-percent).
Amazingly, Alonso has almost identical platoon splits during his six-year career with an .860 OPS against right-handers and .865 OPS versus southpaws.
Potential concerns: Statcast rates Alonso as a below-average defensive first baseman with minus-6 outs above average (OAA). This ties him for last with Oakland’s Tyler Soderstrom among 39 qualified first basemen. For context, Seattle’s Ty France ranks 34th with minus-5 OAA.
Thoughts: If Alonso were to become available, teams looking for a middle-of-the-order power bat should be interested. The Tampa, Florida native certainly fits this description.
Isaac Paredes, 3B - Rays
Selling points: Paredes is adept at something the Mariners don’t do often enough - reach first base. This season, his .359 OBP is top-25 among qualified hitters. in 2023, his first full campaign, Paredes ranked 35th.
Paredes’ excellent on-base success is attributable to the right-handed hitter’s ability to avoid whiffs. His 17.2-percent strikeout rate is five points below the MLB average and top-45 among 146 qualified hitters. Furthermore, the product of Hermosillo, Mexico has a better-than-average 9.7-percent walk rate.
Paredes’ bat also has pop in it. The 25-year-old’s 12 home runs would rank second on the Mariners behind Cal Raleigh (14). His 15 doubles would lead all Seattle hitters.
Although he’s primarily playing third base for the Rays, Paredes does have double-digit starts at second base (53) and first base (30) during five big-league seasons.
Potential concerns: Paredes has demonstrated extra-base power. But it’s important to note he doesn’t frequently make loud contact compared to the rest of MLB. Among 253 qualified batters, his 26.1-percent hard-hit rate is 16th-lowest. Moreover, the right-handed hitter’s 4.6-percent barrel rate ranks 209th.
At 25.8 ft/sec, Paredes won’t be confused for a speedster. Still, Statcast does rate his base running value as average.
From a defensive standpoint, Paredes’ minus-2 outs above average (OAA) suggests he has below-average range compared to his third base peers. Statcast’s fielding run value ranks him 34 of 40 third basemen with 200-plus innings.
Thoughts: It’s important to note both Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan have lower hard-hit rates than Paredes and they’re performing just fine this season. Then again, so does old friend Adam Frazier and we know how playing in T-Mobile Park affected Frazier’s productivity in 2022.
Still, acquiring Paredes would seemingly make sense for the Mariners from a short- and long-term perspective. He’s young, has superb on-base skills, and possesses a knack for generating extra-base hits despite a measurable shortage of loud contact.
Yandy Díaz, 1B - Rays
Selling points: Only 16 qualified hitters have a lower strikeout rate than the 2023 All-Star and Silver Slugger winner. Furthermore, Díaz’s 15 doubles and .332 OBP would lead the Mariners.
Although he has a history of suboptimal defense, Statcast rates Díaz as an average first base defender this year.
Potential concerns: After enjoying a career-year a season ago, Díaz’s offensive production is dramatically down in multiple categories. The simplest indicator of this is the steep decline in his wRC+.
Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) quantities how a hitter’s total offensive value compares with the league average after adjusting for park effects. League-average is always 100. Therefore, a wRC+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 wRC+ would be 20-percent below average.
After registering a 164 wRC+ in 2023, the right-handed hitter is down to a 112wRC+ this season. Furthermore, Díaz’s AVG, OBP, SLG, and wOBA are also much lower than last year and 2022.
Although quickness has never been crucial to his game, it’s worth noting Díaz’s sprint speed has been on the decline in recent seasons. This seems relevant when assessing a player on the wrong side of 30.
Díaz’s Declining Sprint Speed
2021 - 26.6 ft/sec
2022 - 27.1 ft/sec
2023 - 26.6 ft/sec
2024 - 25.4 ft/sec
MLB average sprint speed = 27 ft/sec
Thoughts: To be honest, I was much higher on Díaz until I took a closer look at his numbers. He would definitely help the Mariners in 2024. But it’s plausible the drop in his production and sprint speed this season are early signs of age-related regression.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B - Blue Jays
Selling points: Guerrero mashes baseballs. He has the third-highest hard-hit rate among qualified hitters, while his 13.3-percent barrel rate is top-30 in baseball. Even better, the six-year big-leaguer has a strong command of the strike zone, which is reflected in his top-40 strikeout and walk rates.
If he were a member of the Mariners, Guerrero would lead Seattle in multiple categories including AVG, OBP, wOBA, and wRC+. Only Raleigh (14.9-percent) has a better barrel rate than Toronto’s first baseman.
Since the beginning of the 2020 season, Guerrero has played in 98-percent of Toronto’s games. Availability matters considering several high-profile names mentioned in trade speculation have dealt with injuries during their career.
He may not be a burner on the bases, but Guerrero does have an average-ish 27 ft/sec sprint speed. That’s sixth-best among 39 first basemen with at least 25 competitive runs this year.
Potential concerns: Despite frequently making loud contact, Guerrero’s power numbers have atrophied in recent years, particularly in the home run department.
Guerrero’s Declining Home Run Rate
2021 - 6.9%*
2022 - 4.5%
2023 - 3.8%
2024 - 2.9%
* Fourth-best among qualified hitters
MLB home run rate in 2024 = 2.8%
Granted, Guerrero still boasts an above-average SLG this season. However, we’re talking about a hitter who led the AL in 2021 with a .601 SLG. A year later, he dropped to .480. But it’s worth noting he was still top-20 despite this significant drop.
Thoughts: There’s no disputing the decline in Guerrero’s power numbers. But perhaps his stellar 2021 campaign prevents some from fully appreciating the three-time All-Star's offensive value. His current wRC+ tells us he’s more productive than 33-percent of the league. Such a player can help any lineup, including Seattle’s.
LaMonte Wade Jr., 1B - Giants
Selling points: Wade’s 19.9-percent walk rate is the highest among hitters with 150-plus plate appearances. Not only that, the former Maryland Terrapin is one of just eleven .300 hitters with an OBP and SLG over the .400-mark.
Even though extra-base power isn’t central to Wade’s game, he does make quality contact. Both his 10.7-percent barrel and 46.9-percent hard-hit rates are well above league norms.
Primarily a first baseman with the Giants, Wade has made starts at both corner outfield spots over the past two seasons. That said, his 3 OAA at first base ties for fifth-best among 40 qualified players at the position.
Potential concerns: Wade does have a history of availability challenges. During 2021-23, he averaged 107 games annually due to knee, oblique, and thumb injuries. That said, the 30-year-old did appear in 135 contests last season. This year, he’s been sidelined by a hamstring.
Thoughts: Assuming Wade were available on the market - and that’s a big assumption - the primary issue for me would be his injury history. Perhaps limiting Minnesota’s 2015 ninth-round pick to first base and designated hitter duties would help keep him on the field?
Ryan McMahon, 3B - Rockies
Selling points: After producing a respectable, but not outstanding, .246 AVG/.326 OPB/.431 SLG slash-line and 92 wRC+ in three previous seasons, McMahon is having a breakout campaign. The most intriguing element of this big year - his home and away splits.
Naturally, we tend to expect a hitter playing half his games in the Mile High city to enjoy a huge home field advantage and deliver much weaker road numbers. That’s been the case with McMahon in the past, but not in 2024.
Instead, McMahon is having a great season at and away from Coors Field. When we look at his away OPS dating back to 2021, it appears the improved road numbers are the big difference-maker in this year’s overall success.
McMahon has demonstrated the positional flexibility to play both third base and second base, although the hot corner has been his primary place of employment this year. The product of Yorba Linda, California ties for fourth-best among big-league third basemen with 2 OAA.
Defensive excellence is nothing new for McMahon. Dating back to the beginning of the 2021 campaign, only Pittsburgh’s Ke'Bryan Hayes has more OAA (49) than McMahon’s 31. That’s right, Colorado’s second-round pick in 2013 is ahead of defensive stalwarts Nolan Arenado (29) and Matt Chapman (23). Pretty good for a player who also started 69 games at second base during this timeframe.
Potential concerns: McMahon does something the Mariners need less of - strikeout. The right-handed hitter’s 28.6-percent strikeout rate is 14th-highest - this isn’t a new development. During his eight-year career, McMahon has a 28.7-percent strikeout rate.
Despite the excellent road numbers this season, the 800-pound gorilla remains the same for every Rockies hitter. What will their offensive numbers look like when they’re no longer playing home games in Denver?
In McMahon’s case, he doesn’t have a sustained history of road success.
Thoughts: The Coors Field effect is real. But I’m in the camp of Mike Petriello of MLB.com, who provided interesting insight on the topic in 2020.
Petriello acknowledged the home numbers of ex-Rockies will drop once they leave Denver. However, their road stats tend to improve over time with their new club. This essentially helps offset declining home production.
For me, the bigger issue is McMahon’s propensity to strikeout often. Adding another swing & miss bat to a lineup already striking out at a historically high rate seems problematic to this risk-averse nerd.
Christian Walker, 1B - Diamondbacks
Selling points: Conventional stats tell us Walker has plenty of thunder in his bat. Advanced metrics like his 16.4-percent barrel rate, which is currently 10th-best in MLB, provides further context. The former South Carolina Gamecock also reaches base at a respectable clip.
You basically know what your team will get from Walker. To see what I mean, take a look at his wRC+ dating back to 2022. The Norristown, Pennsylvania native has been a master of consistency.
Walker’s wRC+
2022 - 123
2023 - 120
2024 - 123
Walker has been a Gold Glover the last two seasons and is on a trajectory to three-peat. The 33-year-old currently leads all first basemen with 8 OAA. Next closest are Bryce Harper of the Phillies and Carlos Santana of the Twins, who each have 6 OAA.
Potential concerns: Strikeouts are up for Walker this year. About six-percent above what he produced over the past two seasons.
Walker’s Strikeout Rates
2021 - 19.6%
2022 - 19.3%
2023 - 25.4%
MLB strikeout rate in 2024 = 22.2-percent
Thoughts: Walker hits for power and reaches base. An excellent combination the Mariners or any contender would welcome to its lineup. Even better, he provides premium first base defense.
Unlike McMahon, Walker’s strikeout rate doesn’t concern me. First, he strikes out noticeably less often than Colorado’s starting third baseman. Furthermore, the Mater Dei High School alum is a pending free agent and may not factor into the long-term plan of any club acquiring him - assuming Arizona is amenable to a trade.
Ketel Marte, 2B - Diamondbacks
Selling points: The one-time Mariner would lead this year’s version of his former club in doubles, home runs, AVG, OBP, SLG, wOBA, and wRC+. He’d also have the lowest strikeout rate in the Emerald City. That said, Marte is better than most players not playing their home games in Seattle this year.
Marte’s Stat Rankings
HR (16)
2B (35)
AVG (36)
OBP (42)
SLG (16)
wOBA (25)
wRC+ (27)
Hard-hit% (13)
A former shortstop and center fielder, Marte has found a home at second base. The Dominican Republic native’s 8 OAA is third-best in MLB with only Marcus Semien of the Rangers and Thairo Estrada of San Francisco being better.
Potential concerns: Although he’s hitting for power at home and on the road, Marte’s on-base success significantly lags behind when he’s away from Chase Field.
Marte Home & Away
Home - .368 OBP/.503 SLG
Away - .318 OBP/.503 SLG
This season, Marte has feasted against left-handed pitching (1.073 OPS). Facing right-handers, he has a .699 OPS. Perhaps a nothing-burger, but this means he’s a right-handed hitting thirty-someone who is average-ish against righties.
Thoughts: Marte’s 3.2 fWAR this season suggests he’s a top-15 player in baseball. He reaches base, doesn’t strike out too often, hits for power, and is an excellent defender. For these reasons, the 30-year-old would be an ideal contributor to any contender, including the Mariners.
Jake Cronenworth, 1B/2B - Padres
Selling points: Cronenworth is having his best year since he was a rookie during the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. As with many of the players previously mentioned, the Michigan alum would lead the Mariners in multiple offensive categories.
During his career, Cronenworth has managed to be productive at San Diego’s Petco Park. An important consideration since the Padres’ home field ranks 28th in hitter-friendliness - just two spots ahead of T-Mobile Park. In 1,210 home plate appearances, the two-time All-Star has a .261 AVG/.338 OBP/.441 SLG slash-line.
Cronenworth does possess some positional flexibility. This season, he has 30-plus starts at both first base and second base. That said, the majority of his playing time has come at first base in 2024.
Potential concerns: The defensive metrics are a bit uneven for Cronenworth. Last year, he had 1 OAA at second base. In 2024, the St. Clair, Michigan product has minus-5 OAA at the keystone. In 2023, Cronenworth was at minus-3 OAA at first base, while this season he has 1 OAA.
Cronenworth’s seasonal stats have also waxed and waned. This is best demonstrated using his annual wRC+.
Cronenworth’s wRC+
2020 - 126
2021 - 117
2022 - 110
2023 - 90
2024 -125
League-average wRC+ always = 100
Thoughts: It’s true. Cronenworth’s season stats have been up and down. But his career numbers during 2,300-plus plate appearances suggest the 30-year-old is an above-average run producer. Even better, he’s demonstrated the ability to succeed in a pitcher-friendly venue over multiple seasons.
Missed it by *that* much
I opted to not profile several names suggested by fans - most were outfielders. That said, I did skip discussing Bo Bichette, who is having a down season. And I didn’t bother talking about Alex Bregman since I don’t see the Astros trading him to the Mariners.
Once all my “trade candidate” pieces have published, I’ll circle back and provide a list of my top choices to help Seattle’s offense and pitching staff.
My Oh My…
My order of preference:
Paredes
Vlad Jr
Cronenworth
Thanks for the breakdown