So many trade targets!

Although substantive deals probably won't happen until late-July, the rumor mill is already in overdrive.

David J. Phillip / AP Images

It happens every year. By mid-May, baseball insiders and nationally-recognized purveyors of rumors begin stoking the flames of trade speculation, which typically sends fan bases across the league into a frenzy. That’s certainly been the case in the Emerald City, lately.

The insider creating the stir in Seattle is former GM Jim Bowden, now a contributor to The Athletic. Bowden recently visited The Bump and Stacy Show on Seattle Sports 710 and The Gregg Bell Show with Christopher Kidd on Sports Radio 93.3 KJR to discuss the state of the Mariners through the first quarter of the season.

The message delivered by Bowden to both shows was similar. The Mariners need an injection of offensive talent. Otherwise, the team risks wasting an elite starting rotation capable of propelling it to the World Series this year. Naturally, he suggested trade targets and several potential deadline sellers.

Bowden also stressed that Mariners management must make an uncomfortable choice - trade an MLB-ready starter to land an established bat. Finally, Baseball America’s 1999 MLB Executive of the Year suggested the shortcomings of Seattle’s lineup were foreseeable before the season began. At least they were to him.

Well, that’s a mouthful worth discussing. Let’s begin with the team’s offense.

Suboptimal run production

Bowden is right. The Mariners’ offense ranks mid-pack or noticeably worse in multiple categories.

Compounding matters, Seattle leads MLB in strikeouts despite the fact management made multiple offseason moves to address the issue that began plaguing the team last year.

Let’s make a deal, maybe

The prospective sellers Bowden touched upon were the Marlins, A’s, White Sox, Rockies, and Angels. But there’s a harsh reality that supporters of potential buyers must consider. The rosters of these downtrodden clubs aren’t teeming with premium bats, which is a detail Bowden emphasized.

To illustrate Bowden’s point, I identified hitters from these five teams with at least 100 plate appearances and a wRC+ of 110 or greater.

Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) quantities how a hitter’s total offensive value compares with the league average after adjusting for park effects. League-average is always 100. Therefore, a wRC+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 wRC+ would be 20-percent below average.

All told, I came up with 11 players. Please note I removed currently-injured Mike Trout and his full no-trade protection from consideration. Same with the young starting catchers in Oakland (Shea Langeliers) and Chicago (Korey Lee).

What remains are recognizable names, although many are dealing with the same issue affecting Mariner hitters - too many strikeouts.

Nearly half of the players listed above have a strikeout rate higher than the MLB average. Leading the pack is Brent Rooker. A name floated by Bowden as a less-than-ideal, but better-than-what-they-have solution for Seattle.

In July, we’ll have a robust conversation about potential trade targets. But for now, I will say Taylor Ward and Luis Rengifo, both of the Angels, are intriguing. Each could potentially help Seattle, although history suggests the two teams making a deal may be unlikely.

According to Baseball Reference, the Mariners and Angels have made four trades in 47 years. The most recent move sent designated hitter Kendrys Morales to Seattle in exchange for starter Jason Vargas in December 2012.

Even if the Mariners don't broker a deal with the Angels or any AL West rival, there's no need to worry Seattle fans. Many high-profile names will soon emerge from the rumor mill as possible fits for your club. Let’s discuss the most prominent player being mentioned right now by Bowden and other insiders.

The Polar Bear

Pete Alonso is one of the best home run hitters in baseball. In 2023, he crushed 46 homers. This year, Alonso’s 10 bombs are one fewer than the combined total of Seattle outfielders Mitch Haniger (6), Luke Raley (3), and Julio Rodríguez (2).

Alonso’s very respectable .237 AVG/.335 OBP/.489 SLG slash-line in 1,512 Citi Field plate appearances is also appealing. The Mets home field is known for depressing offense to a level similar to Seattle’s T-Mobile Park. This suggests to me that the slugger’s productivity would transfer well to the Pacific Northwest - assuming a deal happened.

Still, there are factors to consider with any potential Alonso trade. First, his on-field heroics and active involvement with local charities have made him a fan-favorite in the Big Apple. Therefore, it’s plausible the Mets refrain from dealing the former Florida Gator unless the team receives an offer it can’t refuse.

That said, Alonso’s contract status reduces the chances of such a proposal being made. He’s a pending free agent, who according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, turned down a seven-year/$158 million contract extension offer. It’s also worth noting Alonso recently hired Scott Boras as his agent. Boras is an ardent proponent of players setting their value via the free agent market.

There’s also Seattle’s track record to consider. Acquiring a high-profile rental would be fun. But it’d be an uncharacteristic move for a front office that’s resisted committing significant prospect equity for a short-term acquisition.

Then again, if Alonso is wearing a Mariners uniform by August, I won’t complain. But it seems unlikely Seattle would pay the price suggested by Bowden to land him: Ty France and Emerson Hancock.

Arm dealer?

While Bowden strongly believes Seattle must deal either Bryan Woo or Hancock to land the premium bat that he says the team desperately needs, I couldn’t be more against this strategy.

In the case of Woo and Hancock, their injury and workload histories have super-charged my aversion to trading either starter. Perhaps this sounds backwards to you, but please let me explain.

Last year was the first time Woo or Hancock pitched 100-plus innings in a college or professional season. Certainly, these types of availability challenges and low inning totals must reduce their value on the trade market to some degree. Right?

Heck, maybe I’m wrong. After all, Bowden has forgotten more about baseball than I could ever hope to know. Still, it’s tough for me to envision a pair of starters who’ve yet to demonstrate they can remain healthy over a full season having as much value as some rumor merchants suggest.

Setting aside whether trading Woo or Hancock would land the Mariners an established hitter, there’s a practical reason to keep both pitchers. The team will likely need them for its own rotation.

Last year, Seattle used 13 starting pitchers, just under the league-average (14). This season, three teams have already needed double-digit starters - the Dodgers (11), Brewers (10), and Marlins (10). The Mariners are going to need more starters, folks.

If Woo or Hancock were no longer with the Mariners, there wouldn’t be an obvious replacement within the organization if Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, or Woo/Hancock were lost for an extended period.

Sure, former Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel and Jhonathan Díaz, both pitching for Class-AAA Tacoma, could potentially fill the void created by an unplanned loss. But neither southpaw provides the upside of Woo or Hancock.

At least that’s how I see it.

Should’ve seen it coming!

Perhaps the most perplexing commentary from Bowden were claims he knew Seattle’s offense would struggle this year and that its current strikeout issue was predictable.

Poppycock.

“I don’t know where you all thought this offense was coming from. Give me some names of guys that you think were supposed to perform better than this. I never saw it.” - Jim Bowden to Bump & Stacy

Yes, concerns were raised before the season about the health history of several newcomers, the viability of a third base platoon, and the strikeout rates of Raley and Polanco. Having said that, ZiPS projected 11 Mariners would have a wRC+ of 100-or-better this season. Only five are currently above this threshold.

Compounding matters for me, Bowden bestowed Seattle’s lineup with a grade of B-minus in his publication’s AL West preview. This doesn’t align with the tone and tenor of his comments to Bump and Stacy.

Then, there's Bowden's remarks to Gregg Booth and Christopher Kidd regarding the Mariners putting balls in play and striking out too much.

“And you look at Seattle and it was just a perplexing offseason because they traded the power of Teoscar Hernández and Eugenio Suárez. But they didn’t replace them with guys that put the ball in play more, or would move the chains, or create traffic. They brought in more guys who just, you know, strike out too much.” - Jim Bowden to Gregg Booth & Christopher Kidd

Again, Bowden’s words on the radio don’t match with what the former Reds and Nationals GM wrote two months ago. In another Athletic article in March, he gave Seattle’s overall offseason a B-minus grade.

Bowden began his March assessment of Seattle by criticizing ownership for not committing more financial resources to the offense. He then went on to say, “The Mariners’ lineup will have fewer strikeouts and more contact, but they will miss the 59 home runs that the trio (Eugenio Suárez, Teoscar Hernández, and Jarred Kelenic) provided last year.”

Based on the 2023 strikeout numbers of returning Mariners and the team’s offseason additions, Bowden’s statement made sense to me at the time.

Four hitters acquired since last summer’s trade deadline - Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco, Dominic Canzone, and Luis Urías - have experienced an uncharacteristic increase in strikeouts. Adding to Seattle’s misery, Ty France has whiffed at his highest rate since becoming a Mariner in 2020. Who could’ve seen this coming?

No one including Bowden, I suspect.

As for Bowden’s assertion the Mariners will miss the home runs delivered by Hernández, Suárez, and Kelenic, that’s debatable. The team isn’t doing as poorly in this category as some perceive.

Through their first 46 games, the Mariners’ home run total ranked ninth in MLB. Furthermore, the team has more homers than it did at the same point last year.

Mariners First 46 Games

2023: 48 HR/1735 PA’s = 2.8 HR%
2024: 51 HR/1670 PA’s = 3.1 HR%

Perhaps the Mariners finish with fewer home runs this year than they did in 2023. But that hasn’t been the case thus far and Rodríguez has just two home runs. Otherwise, his team would be further ahead of last year’s pace.

Finally

In its current state, the Mariners’ offense isn’t good enough to propel a team to the Fall Classic. That point isn’t up for debate. But for me, the best course of action is to allow the season to progress a little further before assessing the roster’s construction and the productivity of its hitters.

Until then, we can speculate about potential blockbuster trades unlikely to ever happen and continue to enjoy watching Mariners baseball.

Sounds like fun to me!

My Oh My…