Mariners Season Primer: Offense
The first of our season previews delves into the Mariners' run production effort.
Opening Day is upon us. So, let’s shift our attention from meaningless Cactus League action to the upcoming regular season. Will the Mariners reach the postseason? Or, will Seattle fans feel as unfulfilled as they did during the final homestand of 2023?
It’s hard to predict how this year unfolds. But a run production effort better than last year’s would help position the Mariners mount a serious postseason run.
2023 reflections
Immediately after last season ended, we performed a reality check on the offense. As a refresher, here’s how the Mariners’ lineup stacked up against the rest of MLB.
Seattle’s offense was no better than middle-of-the-pack in most categories, including a 29th ranking in strikeouts. That said, an optimist may note the Mariners were twelfth-best in runs scored/game (RS/G), which is the most important stat of all.
True, scoring the most runs is the key to winning games. But in the case of the Mariners, their season ranking was skewed by a torrid August when the team ranked sixth. Remove August from the equation and Seattle was 19th for the rest of 2023.
The uneven nature of the offense further comes into focus when we consider the team’s monthly OPS. The MLB-average OPS last year was .734. The Mariners were above this mark just twice - July and that insane August. We’ll discuss July later.
To address this inconsistency, the team offloaded several high-strikeout hitters in the offseason: Teoscar Hernández, Eugenio Suárez, Jarred Kelenic, Mike Ford, and Tom Murphy. Other notable position players no longer with the organization include José Caballero, Brian O'Keefe, Cooper Hummell, and Evan White.
Welcome to Seattle!
The mass exodus of so many contributors will result in at least six new position players on the big-league roster: Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, Luke Raley, Mitch Haniger, Luis Urías, and Seby Zavala. With so much offseason churn, let’s run through each position group.
Infield
First base: During the offseason, we dug into results-based shortcomings confronting first baseman Ty France last year. In a nutshell, his bat was far less potent than in the past.
To address his issues, France turned to the big-brained analysts of Driveline Baseball. This spring, the 29-year-old has posted excellent numbers that are basically irrelevant. But he’s in superb physical shape, which is an encouraging development.
Raley likely spends most of his time in the outfield. But he did start 25 games at first base for Tampa Bay last season. His versatility provides manager Scott Servais with an experienced alternative whenever the skipper wants to get France off his feet.
Second base: The Mariners haven’t had an above-average run producer at the position since Robinson Canó left in 2018. That should change with the arrival of Polanco, who outperformed Seattle’s second basemen in multiple categories last year.
My lone performance-related issue with Polanco is a recent uptick in strikeouts. The veteran of 10 seasons has been whiffing more frequently over the past three years.
Polanco’s Strikeout Rates
2021 - 15.5%
2022 - 18.3%
2023 - 25.7%
MLB strikeout rate in 2023 = 22.7%
Still, I’m not overly concerned. Even if the strikeouts continue to rise in 2024, Polanco should easily deliver more offense than Seattle received from the keystone last year.
Shortstop: Most fans view J.P. Crawford as the Mariners’ captain. But the 16th overall pick of the 2013 draft was so much more than a team leader last season. Crawford delivered career-best production with 19 home runs, 35 doubles, and a .266 AVG/.380 OBP/.438 SLG slash-line.
Fun fact: Last year, J.P. Crawford had the same OPS (.814) as Julio Rodríguez.
It’s understandable if some fans are anxious about a potential Crawford regression. However, I don’t view anything he accomplished last year as unrepeatable. Yes, the Californian demonstrated uncharacteristic power. But his increased pop can be traced back to the hard work he put in with Driveline last winter.
Third base: After relying on two everyday third baseman for the past 12 years - Kyle Seager and Eugenio Suárez - the Mariners may use a platoon of Josh Rojas and Luis Urías. What I find intriguing about this potential strategy is the splits of Rojas and Urías don’t appear dramatically different over the past three seasons.
Perhaps the Mariners are more interested in previous performance numbers produced by Rojas and Urías than their platoon success.
Rojas was reasonably productive after he joined the Mariners at last year’s trade deadline. In 134 plate appearances across 45 games, the left-handed hitter had a .272 AVG/.321 OBP/.400 SLG with four home runs.
In the case of Urías, who dealt with multiple injuries last year, getting the production his right-handed bat delivered in 2022 might be all the Mariners need from the native of Mexico.
Still, I have misgivings about a potential Rojas and Urías pairing. Defensively, they’re likely to be a big step backwards from the stellar glove work Suárez provided in 2023. From an offensive standpoint, the team appears to be banking on one-or-both players reproducing previous success stories - not former struggles. Such an approach doesn’t inspire confidence in this nerd.
Outfield
As we noted in January, right fielder Mitch Haniger has a history of producing in Seattle. His .790 OPS at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park is seventh-best among players with 1,000-plus plate appearances at the venue. His return provides a boost to both the lineup and clubhouse.
Raley projects to play both corner outfield spots, although he made nine starts in center field for the Rays in 2023. More importantly, the Ohio native was a dynamic performer with Tampa Bay last year with 23 doubles, 19 home runs, 14 stolen bases, and an .824 OPS.
Still, I’m taking a wait-and-see approach with Raley. Last year, the left-handed hitter had a 31.5% strikeout rate and the fourth-highest whiff rate in baseball.
Highest Whiff% (500 swing min)
Joey Gallo - 44.3%
José Siri - 40.1%
Elehuris Montero - 39.3%
Luke Raley - 38.9%
Mickey Moniak - 38.5%
Brent Rooker - 38.2%
MLB Whiff Rate = 25.7%
A beefed-up Dominic Canzone has excelled during Spring Training and may end up being Seattle’s Opening Day left fielder. Canzone has always been adept at limiting strikeouts. But the 26-year-old has also demonstrated some pop. In two months as a Mariner, he boasted above-average 41.4-percent hard-hit and 11.7-percent barrel rates, plus five home runs and 11 doubles.
As with Raley, it’s reasonable to wonder what Canzone ends up being for the Mariners. Yes, the Ohio State alum flashed a power stroke. But he also struggled to reach base (.248 OBP). Walking just six times in 141 plate appearances didn’t help. Neither did a 43.2-percent ground ball rate paired with a .116 AVG on grounders.
Something else to consider. As a rookie, Canzone crushed fastballs - not so much against other pitches. How will the league adjust to this disparity in 2024?
Canzone’s SLG vs Pitch Group (2023)
Fastballs - .671
Breaking - .153
Off-speed - .268
After a fourth-place finish in AL MVP voting last year, center field belongs to Julio Rodríguez for the foreseeable future. That said, Rodríguez morphing into a more consistent run producer is crucial to Seattle’s success.
Yes, Rodríguez’s season stats propelled him to MVP consideration. However, his numbers don’t look nearly as impressive once we remove a white-hot August against subpar pitching staffs.
Rodríguez’s season with August removed would be considered good for a run-of-the-mill slugger. But the common belief in baseball is that he's destined to become a superstar. Superstars don’t produce a .300 OBP. To this point, the 23-year-old had an above-average OBP in just two months last year - July and August.
To me, Rodríguez can transition from a really good player to a perennial MVP candidate by chasing less and reducing swing & miss. Easier said than done, I know. But the two-time Silver Slugger undoubtedly possesses the talent to make it happen.
Catcher
The 27.8-percent strikeout rate of starter Cal Raleigh was a bit higher than preferred. But despite whiffing often, Raleigh provided offensive value via the long ball. Just 15 qualified hitters had a better home run rate than the Florida alum did (5.3-percent).
Backing up Raleigh will be Seby Zavala, whose history suggests he’s a defense-first receiver. Zavala produced an above-average 9.2-percent barrel rate in 2022. But the 30-year-old has a 35.8-percent strikeout rate over four big-league seasons and a 28.6-percent strikeout rate in 2,111 minor-league plate appearances. Before reacting to Zavala’s numbers, I suggest you consider the fact that catcher (.697 OPS) was the only position group in MLB with an OPS below the .710-mark last year.
Newcomers Michael Papierski and Blake Hunt likely provide minor-league depth. Seattle Times beat writer Ryan Divish recently suggested Papierski may be ahead of Hunt on the organization’s depth chart.
Designated hitter
For the first time since Nelson Cruz left in 2018, the Mariners will use a full-time DH - Mitch Garver. The veteran of seven seasons is an established baseball crusher.
Garver’s Career of Mashing Baseballs
.483 SLG
42.1 Hard-Hit%
11.3 Barrel%
5.0 HR%
Ready reserves
The floor of the bench has been raised - finally. I’m not referring to just the four-or-so bench players Seattle will have on its 26-man roster. But also, the multiple candidates at Class-AAA Tacoma capable of helping the big-league club in a pinch.
Potential Supporting Cast
Luis Urías/Josh Rojas (INF)
Ryan Bliss (INF)
Dylan Moore (UTL)
Brian Anderson (UTL)
Sam Haggerty (UTL)
Samad Taylor (UTL)
Dominic Canzone/Luke Raley (OF)
Cade Marlowe (OF)
Taylor Trammell (OF)
Seby Zavala/Michael Papierski/Blake Hunt (C)
It’s important to note several players listed may not be with the Mariners by Opening Day. Veteran Brian Anderson is a non-roster invitee, who according to Divish, is owed $2 million if he’s on the MLB roster. Furthermore, Taylor Trammell has no Minor League options remaining. Therefore, the fan-favorite would have to clear waivers to remain with the organization.
Even if some of the names listed above aren’t with Seattle by April, the big-league club is better-positioned to withstand injuries or suboptimal performances thanks to the depth and versatility it amassed in the offseason.
Ah, an ideal segue into our next topic.
“If healthy”
These two words were frequently uttered during conversations about the offense this winter for a good reason. The availability of several offseason acquisitions has been problematic in recent years.
Percent of games played in 2022-23 (plus age)
Jorge Polanco - 57% (30 yo)
Luis Urías - 53% (26 yo)
Mitch Garver - 44% (33 yo)
Mitch Haniger - 36% (33 yo)
A fifth regular worthy of mention is Luke Raley. The most games Raley has played in a professional season (123) in 2017. Last year, he appeared in 118 contests with Tampa Bay. A late-September cervical strain cost him a chance to play in the playoffs.
While I’m bullish on what the Mariners did to elevate the bench, there’s a common-sense reason to remain cautious about the roster’s construction. The team’s supporting cast isn’t as good as its stars. That said, they should be capable of covering short-term absences.
Well?
Having an outstanding pitching staff means the Mariners shouldn’t need an elite offense to be a legitimate postseason contender. Instead, a lineup ranking closer to tenth-place than middle-of-the-pack should be all the team needs to field a winner.
For me, the level of offense produced last July is what I’d like to see the Mariners emulate in 2024 - not that super-hot August against bad teams.
Mariners July Rankings
Runs - 9th
Doubles - 1st
HR - 9th
AVG – 17th
OBP – 11th
SLG – 10th
OPS – 12th
wOBA - 11th
In July, the Mariners had a 17-9 record against the Rays, Astros, Tigers, Twins, Blue Jays, Giants, and D-Backs. Most of these clubs were still considered contenders at the time. Seattle’s success during this month was fueled by an ideal blend of great pitching and good hitting.
The upgrades made to the lineup over the offseason should position the Mariners to achieve results similar to what the team produced in July 2023 this year. But it’ll take more than just the new guys producing to reach meaningful October baseball. Continued growth by Rodríguez and Raleigh is vital. So is Crawford building upon last year’s breakout and France once again doing Ty France things.
Everything just described seems doable to me - even if a few veterans get nicked-up along the way. For this reason, I expect the Mariners to end their one-year postseason drought in September.
My Oh My…
Love your work thank you so much!!!