The Mariners make two intriguing trades
The deals bringing Mitch Haniger, Luke Raley, and Anthony DeSclafani to Seattle will undoubtedly generate debate among Mariners fans this winter. Perhaps beyond.
Honestly, I’m conflicted by the trades the Mariners pulled off on Friday. On one hand, I believe I get what the front office is trying to accomplish. Then again, each new player presents a unique and genuine risk of volatility.
Mitch Haniger
Haniger’s lone season as a Giant was marred by injuries. As a result, he experienced career lows in AVG, OPB, SLG, wRC+, and walk rate. Moreover, the 33-year-old’s strikeout rate was his second-highest as a big-leaguer.
Still, there was an encouraging sign during Haniger’s lost season. His 46.9-percent hard-hit rate was resoundingly better than the MLB average (39.4-percent). This aligns with the right-handed hitter’s final five seasons as a Mariner (43.8-percent).
As for expectations moving forward, there are several factors to consider.
First, Haniger demonstrated during his previous Emerald City stint that he can produce at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. Many hitters cannot make this claim. For example, the player he’s replacing, Teoscar Hernández, performed significantly better on the road than at home in 2023.
To be clear, Haniger was more productive on the road (.841 OPS in 1,201 plate appearances) than at home. But a .790 OPS in 1,113 plate confrontations at Seattle’s home field is impressive. In fact, only six Mariners with at least 1,000 plate appearances at T-Mobile Park have a better OPS than the Cal Poly alum.
Highest T-Mobile Park OPS as M’s (1,000 PA min)
Nelson Cruz - .865
Edgar Martínez - .862
Bret Boone - .823
Raúl Ibañez - .819
Robinson Canó - .815
John Olerud - .811
Mitch Haniger - .790
Ichiro Suzuki - .780
Richie Sexson - .771
Clearly, crushing baseballs and producing at T-Mobile Park are two strong points for Haniger. But there are concerns to ponder, including an item infrequently mentioned.
Haniger’s platoon splits aren’t “extreme.” But over the past three years, he’s been significantly better when facing left-handed pitching. Even in his worst offensive season ever, Haniger had a respectable .706 OPS in 68 confrontations with southpaws this year.
It’s worth noting Haniger’s bat did continue to deliver power against right-handed pitching in 2021-23. The Californian posted a 4.5-percent home run rate against righties (3.1-percent was average). He was even better versus lefties (5.4-percent).
Defense is another factor to weigh. On Friday, Mariners President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto told the assembled media, including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, the team expects Haniger to play right field this year.
“Our hope is that he plays right field as frequently as he can play right field.” - Jerry Dipoto
In Haniger’s last full season (2021), his -9 fielding run value ranked 289 of 301 defenders with 500-plus innings. In limited action last year, the All-Star accrued a -4 fielding run value.
Another issue on the docket. Over the last two seasons, Haniger experienced a challenge confronting multiple Mariners in 2023. Breaking and off-speed pitches were problematic.
Haniger in 2022-23
Fastballs (53.9%) - .284 AVG/.524 SLG/17.0 SO%
Breaking (32.2%) - .202 AVG/.390 SLG/38.0 SO%
Off-speed (13.9%) - .164 AVG/.279 SLG/35.6 SO%
Perhaps diminished productivity versus non-fastballs is a function of Haniger’s spotty availability in 2022-23. Playing more often this year might be all that’s needed for the Archbishop Mitty High School product to rebound. This is an excellent segue to begin a conversation about *that* subject.
Upon hearing news of the trade, the first thing popping into the minds of some Mariners fans may have been Haniger’s reputation for being hurt often. However, “bad luck” injuries accounted for two-thirds of his missed days.
More specifically, a Jacob deGrom fastball to the face in 2017. Fouling a Justin Verlander pitch off a testicle in 2019. Subsequent rehab setbacks led him to miss the 2020 campaign. A Jack Flaherty offering broke his forearm last year. Oh, and add a case of COVID-19 to the pile.
To be clear, I’m not making excuses for Haniger. Not every injury he’s endured can be chalked up to misfortune. There have been two early-season oblique strains, including one last year. Plus, there was a high ankle sprain in 2022 and a back injury costing him the final week of the 2023 season.
Luke Raley
There are several reasons to like Raley joining the Mariners’ outfield mix. First and foremost, his bat. Among 212 players with 400-plus plate appearances last year, the left-handed hitter’s 130 wRC+ tied for 27th-best with Brandon Nimmo of the Mets. The lone Mariner with a better wRC+ was J.P. Crawford (134).
As with Haniger, Raley makes loud contact. Last season, his 45.7-percent hard-hit ranked 60th and would’ve ranked third-best on the Mariners behind only Julio Rodríguez (52-percent) and Hernández (49.4-percent).
Despite having a 6-foot-4/235-pound frame, Raley is deceptively quick. In 2023, he stole 14 bases and boasted a 28.8 ft/sec sprint speed (27 is league-average). Only three current Mariners were faster: Rodríguez (29.6), Sam Haggerty (29.2), and Cade Marlowe (28.9).
Defensively, Raley provides a unique positional flexibility few on Seattle’s roster possess. Last year, he made 42 starts at corner outfield spots and another nine in center field. The Dodgers’ seventh round pick also started 35 contests at first base.
Having said all that, there are reasons to reserve judgement on Raley.
First, Raley is 29-years-old and has just 550 plate appearances in three big-league seasons. Does he build off last year’s success? Or, will there be regression aided by the league adjusting to him?
Then, there are the strikeouts.
This offseason, Seattle’s front office parted ways with five high-strikeout hitters: Hernández, Mike Ford, Jarred Kelenic, Eugenio Suárez, and Tom Murphy. The stated rationale behind the strategy, put more balls in play this year. Still, only 12 batters with 400-plus plate appearances had a higher strikeout rate than Raley did (31.5-percent). Ironically, just one was a Mariner - Kelenic (31.7-percent).
The amount of swing and miss (whiff) in Ramey’s game last season is worrisome - at least it is to me. Last year, 307 big-league hitters took at least 500 swings. Only three had a higher whiff rate than the Lake Erie College product did.
Highest whiff rate (500 swing min)
Joey Gallo - 44.3%
Jose Siri - 40.1%
Elehuris Montero - 39.3%
Luke Raley - 38.9%
Mickey Moniak - 38.5%
Brent Rooker - 38.2%
MLB Whiff Rate in 2023 = 25.7%
Since management is suggesting Raley will predominantly face right-handed pitching, it’s worth noting his 34.5-percent whiff rate against right-handers was second-highest trailing only Joey Gallo (37.4%).
Anthony DeSclafani
Dipoto says his team intends on sticking with a starting rotation of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo entering the upcoming season. Therefore, DeSclafani projects to be a long reliever/spot starter.
That said, we should remember Chris Flexen entered last season filling the same role. But plans changed almost immediately. A season-ending injury suffered by Robbie Ray during the second contest of the 2023 campaign thrust Flexen into the rotation.
From a performance standpoint, DeSclafani posted a 3.17 ERA in 31 starts in 2021. Since then, it's been rough sledding for the former Florida Gator.
Over the last two years, DeSclafani has made 24 appearances with an unappealing 5.16 ERA. Even worse, opponents had a .294 AVG, .493 SLG, and 45.2-percent hard-hit rate against the right-hander. Suboptimal for a pitcher regardless of role.
Still, numbers aren’t my primary concern with DeSclafani. After all, Seattle’s pitching wizards have a well-deserved reputation for helping hurlers become the best version of themselves. Instead, it’s health-related issues I can’t stop thinking about.
According to Baseball Prospectus, DeSclafani has spent 537 days on the injured list since 2017. That’s more than Haniger (527). Most ominous to me, the former sixth round pick’s previous arm-related IL stints, including two last season.
DeSclafani has never undergone Tommy John surgery, although he must have been close to needing the procedure when he missed the entire 2017 season with a UCL sprain. Last year, the New Jersey native didn’t pitch after July 23 due to a flexor tendon strain and shoulder fatigue. Not good for a pitcher expected to serve as a swing-man in 2024.
Mixed signals
Bad luck or not, Haniger has struggled to remain healthy since debuting with Seattle in 2017. During this span, he’s appeared in 57.3-percent of his teams’ games. And as we discussed with recent acquisition Mitch Garver, availability is a relevant planning factor that must not be overlooked or explained away.
On the other hand, I’m confident a healthy Haniger would outproduce what Hernández delivered for the Mariners last year. And then, there are the intangibles.
This nerd has never set foot in an MLB clubhouse and probably never will. So, it’s impossible for me to quantify the value of Haniger’s leadership to his teammates. But two former big-leaguers I respect immensely took to Twitter to whole-heartedly endorse Haniger’s return. They are Bucky Jacobsen of Sports Radio 93.3 KJR and Ryan Rowland-Smith of ROOT Sports.
Perhaps Haniger falls into another injury crater this year. But he undoubtedly provides the “veteran leadership” some fans believe the Mariners lacked in 2023. Plus, the potential also exists for him to be a Comeback Player of the Year candidate.
Hence, my use of the term “volatility.”
As for Raley, the strikeouts could be problematic. Obviously, hitters with a lot of swing and miss can be rally killers. We saw a lot of this from multiple Mariners in 2023. Furthermore, hitters not making a lot of contact must be more susceptible to being streaky. Right?
Then again, there’s this cool Stathead comparison of what Raley and Kelenic did at the plate last year.
Perhaps this is the optimistic way to view Raley’s acquisition. He could represent an offensive upgrade over Kelenic in left field. Both had about the same amount of playing time, yet Raley was a much better run producer. But we shouldn’t forget Kelenic is about five years younger.
The most enigmatic of the newest Mariners is DeSclafani, who is a free agent after the 2024 campaign. The Flexen plan fell apart last year due to his ineffectiveness as a starter and subsequent return to the bullpen. As a result, he was largely relegated to mop-up duty. Will DeSclafani experience a similar fate this year?
If the answer is yes, it’s unclear how DeSclafani and his $12 million salary would fit into Seattle’s grand scheme for 2024.
Finally
Obviously, the front office’s approach this offseason has created angst within the fan base. An understandable sentiment considering the organization has averaged 89 wins over the last three years, yet has chosen to add around the edges of its roster this winter.
Perhaps that's an unfair assessment. After all, it appears to me management is constrained by reported budgetary uncertainty. As a result, it’s dealing with the situation in the most practical manner available to them - payroll capitalization to create limited opportunities to improve the roster.
Still, I do believe Friday’s trades coupled with the recent signing of Garver made the roster better. We do know the team now boasts three more hitters talented enough to re-invigorate the middle of its lineup. But so much depends on Garver and Haniger remaining available and Raley avoiding exile on Regression Island.
Realistically, whether the Mariners’ offseason machinations have made the team a legitimate postseason contender is an issue to revisit in mid-March. After all, the hot stove is still burning.
It is still burning, right?
My Oh My…