The Mariners add a proven bat

Acquiring an established right-hander hitter was an offseason priority set by Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander. Mitch Garver certainly checks that block.

Tony Gutierrez / AP Images

The Mariners have finally acquired an established hitter.

On Christmas Eve, Jeff Passan of ESPN reported Seattle agreed to terms on a two-year/$24 million contract with free agent catcher/designated hitter Mitch Garver.

As always, deals are contingent on players passing a physical examination. While we await an official announcement from the Mariners, let’s discuss Garver’s potential value to his new club.

A strong 2023

This year, Garver was significantly better than league-average in multiple categories. More importantly, he was one of the best hitters in the lineup of the World Series champion Texas Rangers.

To better demonstrate the value of Garver’s bat, let’s turn to a useful tool for comparing a player’s offense productivity to his peers - OPS+.

On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) is a normalized version of OPS that adjusts for park and league conditions. OPS+ is scaled so 100 is always league-average. As a result, an OPS+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 OPS+ would be 20-percent below average.

Among 293 hitters with 300-plus plate appearances, Garver’s 134 OPS+ tied for 19th-best with J.D. Martinez and NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll.

For those preferring conventional stats, the lone Ranger with a higher OBP than Garver this year was AL MVP runner-up Corey Seager (.390). Furthermore, Seager (.623) and Adolis García (.508) were the only Texas hitters with a better SLG.

Lone Ranger, get it?

A long history of production

Garver’s offensive success this year isn’t an anomaly. He’s been a superb run-producer during his seven big-league seasons. Again, let’s use OPS+ to assist with our assessment.

Compared to 159 right-handed hitters with at least 1,500 plate appearances since he entered the league in 2017, Garver ranks 29th in OPS+. Take a look at the familiar names with a similar level of productivity. It’s an impressive group.

Hitters with a Similar OPS+ to Garver Since 2017

Bo Bichette - 126
Randy Arozarena - 126
Will Smith - 126
Rhys Hoskins - 125
Xander Bogaerts - 125
Luis Robert Jr. - 124
Austin Riley - 124
José Abreu - 124
Carlos Correa - 123
Mitch Garver - 123
Kris Bryant - 122
Marcell Ozuna - 121
Luke Voit - 121
Mitch Haniger - 121

Now, let’s consider several factors that help Garver deliver with his bat. To me, they make him particularly appealing to the Mariners.

Controlling the zone

In 2023, Garver demonstrated the kind of plate discipline Seattle didn’t receive from most of its power hitters. Several metrics help illustrate this core capability.

Doesn’t chase

The rate at which Garver swung at pitches outside the strike zone this year was one of the lowest in baseball. Among 319 hitters seeing at least 500 pitches outside the zone, his 17.4% chase rate ranked ninth. The best Mariner was J.P Crawford (18.6%), who tied for 14th place.

Breaking balls weren’t kryptonite

As we’ve discussed in the past, multiple Mariners struggled against breaking pitches in 2023. The team’s .207 AVG versus curveballs and sliders ranked 25th and fell noticeably below the .222 MLB AVG.

Garver hit .243 against breaking balls, which would’ve ranked second among Seattle hitters seeing at least 200 offerings from this pitch group.

AVG vs Breaking Pitches in 2023

Julio Rodríguez - .263
Mitch Garver - .243
Ty France - .239
Jarred Kelenic - .221*
Teoscar Hernández - .212*
J.P. Crawford - .203
Cal Raleigh - .202
José Caballero - .194
Eugenio Suárez - .181*
Mike Ford - .169+
Dylan Moore - .098
Kolten Wong - .085*

* No longer on roster

Manageable strikeout numbers

It’s been well-chronicled Seattle accrued the second-most strikeouts in MLB in 2023. Garver’s presence should help in this regard. His 23.8% strikeout rate was just above the league-average mark. However, this is palatable considering nine Mariners with 100-plus plate appearances had a higher strikeout rate than the 2019 Silver Slugger.

Higher SO% than Mitch Garver (100 PA Min)

Dylan Moore - 33.9%
Cade Marlowe - 33%
Mike Ford - 32.3%*
Jarred Kelenic - 31.7%*
Teoscar Hernández - 31.1%*
Eugenio Suárez - 30.8%*
Cal Raleigh - 27.8%
Tom Murphy - 27.7%*
Julio Rodríguez - 24.5%
Mitch Garver - 23.8%

* No longer on Seattle’s roster

And he walks too!

More strikeouts resulted in the team walking less often than it did the season prior. Once again, Garver is capable of helping.

Among players with at least 300 plate appearances, Garver’s 12.8% walk rate tied for 30th-best in MLB with former Rangers teammate Nathaniel Lowe. The only Mariner earning free passes at a better clip than the University of New Mexico product was Crawford (14.8%).

He mashes

Garver frequently makes contact and it’s typically loud and damaging. This is reflected in his xwOBA, which represents the quality and quantity of contact made by a hitter or allowed by a pitcher.

Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) uses quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle) to determine what should’ve happened to batted balls. A key advantage to xwOBA is defense (good or bad) doesn’t influence it. This gives us a truer sense of how a hitter or pitcher is performing. The MLB league-average xwOBA this year = .320

In Garver’s case, Baseball Savant ranked his .365 xwOBA 28th-best among 258 qualified hitters tying him with two-time Silver Slugger Austin Riley and Riley Green. The closest Mariner was Rodríguez (.345).

Barrel rate provides another way to gauge Garver’s productive power. Barrels are batted balls with the ideal blend of exit velocity and launch angle. This year, these well-struck balls produced a .742 AVG, 2.493 SLG, and 85.7-percent of all home runs hit in MLB.

As for Garver, his 12.6-percent barrel rate tied for 44th-best with his new teammate - Cal Raleigh. The only Mariners barreling batted balls more frequently than the catching duo were Teoscar Hernández (13.8-percent) and Eugenio Suárez (13.2-percent).

From a traditional aspect, Garver’s .500 SLG tied for 31st-best with Patrick Wisdom, Rafael Devers, and Josh Lowe. Once again, he would’ve paced the Mariners with Rodríguez (.485) finishing a distant second.

Assessing a conventional stat through a different lens, Garver’s 5.5-percent home run rate ranked 29th sandwiching him between Ronald Acuña Jr. and Isaac Paredes and just ahead of the leading Mariner - Raleigh (5.3-percent).

Hitting home runs often has been a recurring theme throughout Garver’s career. Among 280 hitters with 1,500-plus plate appearances since 2017, his 5-percent home run rate ties for 30th-best with several recognizable names - Bryce Harper, Cody Bellinger, Adolis García, Teoscar Hernández, and Josh Donaldson.

Oh-for-what at T-Mobile Park?

When news of the Garver trade broke, Mariners Twitter noted he’s never had a hit in 33 plate appearances at Seattle’s home field. True, but my reaction is “big whoop.”

Sure, it’d be nice if Garver had a history of crushing baseballs at T-Mobile Park ala Mike Trout. But we’re talking a teeny-tiny sample size with Garver. Eight games in three seasons (2018, 2022, and 2023) spread over a five-year span. Who cares?

Well, some people must care since they tweeted about it. But let’s not forget that a year ago many of us, including me, were emphasizing Teoscar Hernández boasted a .357 AVG/.400 OBP/.679 SLG in Seattle before becoming a Mariner. How did that work out for both player and team in 2023?

Here’s a thought exercise for those clinging to Garver’s .000 AVG at T-Mobile Park as a reason to be skeptical about the Albuquerque, New Mexico native. Consider the lack of success his former teammate, Corey Seager, has experienced in the Emerald City. In 59 career plate appearances, Seager has a .135 AVG/.220 OBP/.192 SLG with one home run - zero as a Ranger.

Would Mariners fans welcome Seager with open arms if the three-time Silver Slugger joined their team tomorrow?

Or, would they gripe about the front office adding a hitter with a measly .413 OPS in 14 games at Seattle?

I think we all know the answer.

Built for T-Mobile Park?

Having said all that, it’s important to recognize Garver did play his home games at hitter-friendly Globe Life Field this year. He boasted a .928 OPS in Arlington compared to an .809 OPS on the road. So yes, it’s reasonable to expect T-Mobile Park will have some effect on his production, as it does for most hitters.

Still, I'm wondering whether one of the factors prompting the Mariners to target Garver was his 47.7-percent pull rate, which was ninth-highest among 189 right-handed hitters with at least 200 batted balls this season. Why would this matter?

In 2023, right-handed hitters clobbered 61 home runs to the pull side at T-Mobile Park. According to Baseball Savant, these bombs traveled an average distance of 389 feet. And surprise, surprise. Guess which park had the second-shortest average distance in MLB?

Shortest Average Dist on Right-Handed Pull HR’s

Minute-Maid Park - 387 feet
T-Mobile Park - 389 feet
Fenway Park - 390 feet
Rogers Centre - 390 feet
Petco Park - 391 feet

Now, look at Garver’s 2023 home run spray chart. Clearly, hitting to the pull side is an important component of his success as a power hitter. Perhaps the Mariners and Garver’s power bat will turn out to be an ideal match.

Postseason cred

There’s an intangible quality Garver possesses this nerd can’t overlook - a championship pedigree.

Garver’s overall postseason .212 AVG/.297 OBP/.379 SLG may not thrill Seattle fans. But the veteran knows what it takes to win it all. This year, he helped Texas win its first-ever World Series title with home runs in the ALDS, ALCS, and the Fall Classic.

Injuries have to be a concern

Okay, there’s a reason we’ve focused solely on Garver’s rate stats during our conversation. Throughout his career, he’s struggled with remaining available due to a variety of maladies. Therefore, his counting stats wouldn’t impress in most seasons.

With the Rangers, the biggest injury-related issue confronting Garver was a flexor strain suffered in May 2022. He would miss 11 games before returning to the lineup. Ultimately, he didn’t catch another game and had season-ending surgery in July.

Catcher or DH?

Once the deal becomes official, the Mariners will likely share management’s vision on how the team will use Garver. Will he be a full-time designated hitter? Or, will the 2013 ninth round pick of the Twins serve as DH most of the time and occasionally spot the team’s starting catcher, Raleigh?

If it were up to me, Garver would serve as a full-time designated hitter and act as an emergency catcher reserved for only the worst-case scenarios. Several factors are driving this thought pattern.

First, most of Garver’s injuries have occurred when he was catching. The notable exceptions would be an intercostal strain experienced during a swing of the bat, a sprained knee running the bases, and a case of COVID-19. That said, there’s no way to know with certainty whether the rigors of the catcher position didn’t factor into the intercostal and knee issues.

Sure, there’s no guarantee Garver won’t suffer an injury as a designated hitter. But moving out from behind the plate would undoubtedly mitigate the risk of further injury. Perhaps this is why Seattle added two catchers this offseason.

Seby Zavala joined the Mariners in the deal sending Suárez to Arizona. Minor-league backstop Blake Hunt was acquired from the Rays. Both are considered excellent defenders. Conversely, Statcast suggests Garver’s defensive value is average-ish.

Let’s face it. The Mariners aren’t investing significant money in Garver for his abilities as a catcher. The organization is hiring him for the potential his bat provides. Therefore, keeping him available is paramount.

Since 2021, MLB designated hitters have a .240 AVG/.319 OBP/.418 SLG slash-line. During the same span, Seattle’s DH spot ranked 29th in AVG and OBP and 26th in SLG. Conversely, Garver slashed .249/.347/.479 over the last three years.

Bottom line: Garver represents a significant upgrade at the designated hitter position, if healthy. Therefore, the team should do everything within its power to keep him that way.

Finally

Garver represents one of the established bats the Mariners need to acquire this offseason. He’s right-handed and has demonstrated the ability to be a top-30 run producer. Having said that, his availability challenges are real.

Remember, Garver’s career-high for games played in a season is 102 in 2018. It’s the only year he’s surpassed the 100-game mark. This is a relevant factor, which must be considered.

Still, the Mariners must feel comfortable with Garver’s injury history. Otherwise, management wouldn’t obligate such a significant amount of money to sign him. This is why I suspect he plays exclusively at designated hitter - the team needs to protect its investment.

Realistically, Garver could miss significant time to an injury next year, even if he’s Seattle’s full-time designated hitter. But Garver's previous history isn’t a roadmap to future availability issues. Any player can land on the IL.

Finally, Mitch Garver’s offensive skill set makes him an excellent match for the Mariners. For this reason, he’s a worthwhile risk for an organization still capable of being a postseason contender in 2024.

My Oh My…