Gauging the Mariners’ defensive outlook after a busy offseason
How might the new bats added this offseason affect the Mariners’ defense?
Over the winter, the Mariners experienced significant roster churn with at least six new position players projected to be with the club on Opening Day. The motivation driving this frenetic offseason activity? Reset a lineup that just set a franchise record for most strikeouts in a season.
On paper, the front office accomplished its mission. But this massive turnover undoubtedly had to affect the defense. After all, the team didn’t just add six new bats to the mix. It introduced six new gloves, too.
With this in mind, let’s consider the defensive numbers of fielders expected to regularly appear at each position for the Mariners. We’ll also discuss the supporting cast expected to lend a glove to Seattle’s run prevention effort.
First, a quick review of several metrics Baseball Savant metrics I’ll be leaning on.
OAA
Outs above average (OAA) attempts to quantify outs saved by a fielder. Zero OAA is considered average.
I’ve become increasingly comfortable with OAA since it’s based on information collected by Statcast’s state-of-the-art tracking technology. Inputs include the following:
• How far the fielder must go to reach the ball (infielders/outfielders)
• How much time the fielder has to reach the ball (infielders/outfielders)
• Direction travelled by the fielder to reach the ball (outfielders only)
• How far the fielder is from the base the runner is heading towards (infielders only)
• On force plays, the average sprint speed of the runner (infielders only)
Whenever I mention OAA, I usually cite a superb piece written by Mike Petriello of MLB prior to the 2020 season. In it, Petriello elaborates on the rollout of OAA for infield defense. It’s an excellent tutorial on OAA with several visual examples explaining the data mentioned above.
Arm strength
This self-explanatory stat represents the average throw velocity in miles-per-hour of infielders and outfielders. The method used to determine arm strength varies slightly based on position group being assessed. The MLB glossary has a great, simplified explainer for those wanting to learn more about arm strength.
Arm value
Arm value evaluates the ability of outfielders to prevent runners from taking an extra base. Conversely, the metric can be flipped around to rate base runner performance at taking that extra bag. Factors weighed include:
• Speed of the runner
• Outfielder arm strength
• Runner’s position on the base path
• Outfielder’s proximity to the ball and the bases
• Estimated success probability
Fielding run value
Our final metric incorporates arm value and OAA into one number for infielders and outfielders. But I’m going to primarily use it when we discuss catchers. For backstops, three components measured by Statcast are involved with determining fielding run value: blocking, framing, and throwing.
Okay, enough with the nerd stuff. Let’s talk about players.
First base
Barring unforeseen circumstances, Ty France will be the main stakeholder this year. His -1 OAA last season is indicative of average-ish defense.
It’s plausible newcomer Luke Raley spells France. Last year, Raley made 25 starts at first base with the Rays accruing 1 OAA. In of itself, this number suggests average defense. But it’s critical to remember throughout our conversation that defensive metrics are best consumed in large amounts. Therefore, I suggest holding judgement on the Ohio native’s first base acumen until more information is available.
Second base
Over the last two seasons, the -14 OAA accumulated by newly acquired Jorge Polanco ranked 38 of 40 second basemen making 250-plus plays. That’s a large sample size and merits being taken seriously.
Polanco’s 2B OAA
2021 (-2) - 384 fielding attempts
2022 (-9) - 338 fielding attempts
2023 (-5) - 207 fielding attempts
It’s worth noting that over the past two seasons Polanco has been on the IL twice with both knee and hamstring issues. He also missed time with a back problem. Perhaps the injury bug was driving the 30-year-old’s two-year defensive decline and better health will lead to improved glove work in 2024.
Shortstop
The player I’ll likely receive the most OAA pushback over is J.P. Crawford (-8 OAA).
A vocal contingent of Mariners fans will insist Crawford is a premium glove. They don’t care what OAA or any other nerd number says. What they've seen with their own eyes tells them all they need to know.
And there’s the problem. What we’re exposed to during a TV broadcast is a limited view of the action - it simply is. Remember, OAA is determined using Statcast technology, which sees everything.
Don’t get me wrong. ROOT Sports does a fine job of presenting on-field action. But a fan watching from the comfort of their home or barstool can’t possibly account for all of these previously mentioned factors:
• How far the fielder must go to reach the ball
• How much time the fielder has to reach the ball
• Direction travelled by the fielder to reach the ball
• How far the fielder is from the base the runner is heading towards
• On force plays, the average sprint speed of the runner
In the case of Crawford, Statcast tells us he was less effective at moving towards third base last year. That’s what my unqualified eyes saw, too. Perhaps the issue traces back to the Californian possessing below-average sprint speed for a shortstop or team established pre-positioning. Maybe it’s a combination of these two factors or something completely different.
Another factor to consider with a shortstop is arm strength. Crawford’s throws averaged 82.3-mph, which tied for 21 of 31 among shortstops making at least 300 throws in 2023. The MLB average for the position was 86.3-mph.
Third base
This is the most uncertain defensive position on the roster. Gone is Eugenio Suárez and his 11 OAA, which tied for third-best among third baseman with Manny Machado and Ryan McMahon. At the moment, the plan to replace Suárez calls for using some combination of Josh Rojas and Luis Urías.
Josh Rojas
The majority of Rojas’ big-league experience at third base came in 2022 when he made 89 of his 151 career appearances at the position. Through the lens of Statcast, things didn’t look good for the University of Hawaii alum two years ago (-6 OAA). Last year, Rojas had zero OAA during 48 appearances at the hot corner.
One aspect of Rojas’ defense that shouldn’t be an issue is his arm. His throws from third base averaged 87-mph in 2022 — ninth-best among 59 third basemen making 100-plus throws. Essentially the same velocity as a certain free agent third baseman a segment of Mariners fans are pining for the team to sign - Matt Chapman (87.3-mph).
Luis Urías
In five big-league seasons, the versatile Urías has more starts at third base (147) than other infield positions, but not by much. The 26-year-old has 124 starts at both second base and shortstop. In 2022, his arm strength (82.2-mph) ranked 35th within our group of 59 third basemen.
Urías’ 3B experience
2020 – 20 starts (2 OAA)
2021 – 58 starts (-2 OAA)
2022 – 54 starts (-1 OAA)
2023 – 14 starts (2 OAA)
Urías is another new Seattle infielder with a recent history of injuries. Since the beginning of the 2022 campaign, he’s missed 105 games with leg injuries. A more concerning development could end up being the native of Magdalena de Kino, Mexico dealing with a shoulder issue, which has curtailed his throwing.
Outfield
Statcast recognizes Julio Rodríguez (12 OAA) as one of baseball’s best defenders. Furthermore, his 91.6-mph arm strength was 19th-best in MLB.
Still, Statcast dinged Rodríguez with a -2 arm strength value. I suspect this deficiency may be attributable to the accuracy and trajectory of the 2022 AL Rookie of the Year award winner‘s powerful cannon.
Raley (-2 OF OAA) spends most of his time in corner outfield spots, although he does possess some center field experience. The 29-year-old’s 91.3-mph arm strength is comparable with Rodríguez’s, while his arm value of 1 rates as slightly above-average.
Fan-favorite Mitch Haniger (-13 OAA since 2021) appears destined to play right field. Mariners President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto said as much when discussing Haniger’s acquisition with members of the media, including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times.
Whether Dipoto’s expectation for Haniger becomes reality likely depends on the veteran’s productivity and availability, plus the performance of several reserve candidates competing to make the Opening Day roster.
The most recognizable names in the reserve outfielder mix are Dominic Canzone (-2 OAA), Cade Marlowe (2 OAA), and Taylor Trammell (2 career OAA). Just to reiterate. The defensive numbers of Canzone, Marlowe, and Trammell are extremely small samples.
The other guys
Both Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty have logged time across the diamond and will likely do so again. Two non-roster invites Brian Anderson and Michael Chavis are also vying for a major-league roster spot.
Since these four individuals play multiple positions, I won’t focus on their defensive stats. Instead, let’s review the positions each played over the last two seasons. Two things stood out to me.
Moore is the most versatile of the group and the lone player with shortstop experience. This seemingly gives him an edge over the others, although Rojas and Polanco have spent time at the position during their respective careers. But not much recently.
Since third base is receiving so much scrutiny, Anderson’s recent history is relevant. Last season, the Arkansas alum accumulated 3 OAA at the position during 50 starts and 476.1 innings. Furthermore, his arm strength is superb.
Anderson’s 96-mph average velocity for all positions played was seventh-best among all fielders with 100-plus throws. At 88.7-mph, his average third base velo was number-eight of 59.
Two young minor-leaguers could inevitably fill supporting roles for the Mariners this upcoming season - Samad Taylor and Ryan Bliss. Both are extremely quick with Taylor boasting experience at second base, third base, and each outfield position. Bliss has been a middle-infielder throughout his professional career.
Catcher
This is Seattle’s strongest defensive group thanks to starter Cal Raleigh and offseason acquisition Seby Zavala. Not only that, minor-leaguer Blake Hunt is considered a good defender by MLB Pipeline.
Only six of 38 catchers with 500-plus innings last year had a higher fielding run value than Raleigh (7). Zavala (5) tied for twelfth-best within this group.
Designated hitter Mitch Garver probably won’t catch often this year. Last season, the University of New Mexico product made just 27 starts behind the plate with zero fielding run value.
Around the horn
To me, the Mariners’ overall defense should be fine, but probably not great. That said, there are a few areas I’ll be keeping an eye on. The first is the middle infield.
If Polanco were to further regress defensively due to injuries or other factors, Seattle’s up-the-middle defense could become problematic. Especially when combined with shortstop glove work rated as unfavorable by Statcast.
The quality of right field defense likely varies drastically depending on who’s out there. At this point of his career, Haniger is probably better off playing less in the field. Moreover, his expected understudy, Canzone, has long been considered a bat-first type of outfielder.
Still, third base remains the most prominent concern for me. Rojas’ time at third base in 2022 wasn’t particularly reassuring. Plus, the fact Urías isn’t throwing in games is a bit unsettling.
Compounding matters for Seattle’s third basemen, Statcast tells us the team’s starting shortstop was suboptimal at moving towards the hot corner on balls put in play last year. This issue could potentially become increasingly evident with Suárez no longer defending third base on a daily basis.
Perhaps Anderson vaults ahead of Rojas or Urías on the depth chart to make the Opening Day roster. But it’s important to note the 30-year-old had a .224 AVG/.311 OBP/.357 SLG and 86 OPS+ in 744 plate appearances over the past two seasons. Yes, we’ve been talking about defense. But offense still matters.
Maybe signing Chapman suddenly becomes a viable option for the Mariners. This scenario seems a bit far-fetched to me for the obvious financial reasons, plus I recently expressed my concerns with Seattle signing the seven-year veteran.
Then again, never say never.
My Oh My…