Sizing up Matt Chapman

Would Matt Chapman be a good match for the Mariners? I have doubts.

Eric Christian Smith / AP Images

There’s been a recent groundswell of speculation regarding the notion of the Mariners signing free agent third baseman Matt Chapman. The impetus behind the chatter appears to be an innocuous article authored over the weekend by Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times.

In his story, Divish posed four Mariners-related questions, including the likelihood of the team adding to its roster. The long-time beat writer noted management had discussed the feasibility of signing Chapman to be Seattle’s starting third baseman. A role previously filled by the since-traded Eugenio Suárez.

The Chapman speculation pouring onto social media platforms and over the air waves was interesting. But to me, it was nothing more than mid-February conjecture about a recognizable free agent still on the market. It remains unlikely the right-handed hitter signs with Seattle.

First, there’s that pesky RSN issue reported by Divish and his Times teammate Adam Jude. Adding a high-profile free agent probably doesn’t fit into the Mariners current payroll structure. And let’s not forget Chapman is represented by Scott Boras, an agent known for driving the hardest of bargains.

Never say never, but don’t hold your breath.

Although Chapman probably won’t become a Mariner, I chose to temporarily ignore reality and consider whether he’d make sense for the team. Honestly, a review of his numbers created more concern than excitement for me.

So many strikeouts

A strong suit of Chapman’s has been avoiding pitches outside the strike zone. His 18.9-percent chase rate last year was eighth-best among 132 hitters seeing at least 1,000 pitches outside the zone. This is an encouraging start to our conversation until we realize the California native’s strikeout rate was tenth-highest among qualified hitters.

Highest SO% Among Qualified Hitters (2023)

Brent Rooker - 32.7%
Jack Suwinski - 32.2%
James Outman - 31.9%
Ryan McMahon - 31.6%
Teoscar Hernández - 31.1%
Eugenio Suárez - 30.8%
Kyle Schwarber - 29.9%
Josh Jung - 29.3%
Luis Robert Jr. - 28.9%
Matt Chapman - 28.4%

We all know Seattle’s lineup was built to strike out a lot last year and management subsequently parted ways with several high-strikeout hitters: Mike Ford (32.3-percent), Jarred Kelenic (31.7), Teoscar Hernández (31.1), Suárez (30.8), and Tom Murphy (27.7). Signing Chapman would seemingly conflict with the team’s desire to reduce strikeouts.

Still, the Mariners did add a pair of high-strikeout hitters this winter: Luke Raley (31.5-percent) and old friend Mitch Haniger (27.3-percent in 2022-23). Therefore, it’s possible Seattle would accept Chapman’s propensity to whiff under the right circumstances.

Torrid April…not so much afterwards

During the first month of the 2023 campaign, Chapman led qualified hitters in multiple categories: doubles, SLG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, hard-hit and barrel rates, and fWAR. Moreover, the former Athletic and Blue Jay was second-best in AVG and OBP behind Miami’s Luis Arráez. Unfortunately, his stats cratered afterwards.

With the exception of walks, Chapman’s combined production numbers for May through October were significantly worse than what he delivered in March and April. This kind of decline from a hitter in his walk year is alarming to me.

Troubling platoon trend?

Chapman continues to torch left-handed pitching (.890 OPS in 2023). But his .223 AVG/.320 OBP/.402 SLG slash-line against right-handed pitching was average-ish for a right-handed hitter. A closer look reveals the 30-year-old’s productivity against righties dating back to 2021 has been much lower than his first four years as a big-leaguer.

Is this a big deal?

Perhaps not. But one of the two Mariners vying for time at third base, right-handed hitting Luis Urías, was slightly more productive against right-handers over the past three seasons (.232/.337/.405) than Chapman was (.217/.319/.401).

Trouble with the heat?

In 2023, Chapman had a significantly higher whiff rate against high-velocity pitches (96-mph or better) than in recent seasons. Is this a red flag?

High-Velo Whiff Rate

2021 - 32.7%
2022 - 31.5%
2023 - 36.8%

MLB whiff rate vs high-velo in 2023 = 23.8%

I’m not sure, although it’s clear Chapman’s whiff rate against high velocity was among the worst in baseball last year. Only six of 137 hitters swinging at 100-plus high-velo pitches had a higher whiff rate than the El Toro High School product.

Highest Whiff Rate on 96+mph Pitches

Nolan Gorman - 44.1%
Brandon Belt - 44.1%
MJ Melendez - 41.9%
Randy Arozarena - 37.7%
Brandon Drury - 37.7%
Garrett Cooper - 37.3%
Matt Chapman - 36.8%
Brent Rooker - 36.4%
Ryan Noda - 36.3%
J.D. Davis - 36%

Is this increase in swing-and-miss against velocity an indicator of diminished bat speed?

Perhaps, although this nerd doesn’t feel comfortable arriving at such a conclusion without additional concrete information. Still, it’s obvious to this amateur that Chapman whiffing against velocity more frequently isn’t a good news story.

Where have all the home runs gone?

Chapman can undoubtedly put a hurt on baseballs. Only Aaron Judge had a higher hard-hit rate (64.2-percent) than the Cal State Fullerton product (56.4-percent) did last year. Furthermore, Chapman’s 17.1-percent barrel rate tied for third-best with J.D. Martinez. Yet, his home run rate fell below the three-percent threshold for the first time in his career.

Chapman’s HR%

2017 - 4.3%
2018 - 3.9%
2019 - 5.4%
2021 - 4.3%
2022 - 4.4%
2023 - 2.9%

MLB HR% = 3.2%

Why a hitter making so much loud contact didn’t hit more homers is unclear to me. But a closer look at his barreled ball success revealed several intriguing items.

Barrel productivity

Last season, 120 hitters barreled at least 30 baseballs - Chapman was one of them. However, his 1.898 SLG on barrels was third-lowest within this group. Only Seattle’s Ty France (1.813) and Trent Grisham (1.816) ranked worse.

Barrels are the most devastating batted-ball events produced. In 2023, batters boasted a .742 AVG and 2.493 SLG on barreled balls - 85.7% of all home runs hit were barrels.

When we review Chapman’s barrel production, several things are definitely amiss. There’s the SLG we just discussed. But he also experienced an uncharacteristically low home run rate, plus his barreled balls didn’t travel as far as they have in the past.

It’s also worth noting Chapman’s average distance of 367 feet on barrels last season tied for last with Grisham among the 120 hitters just mentioned.

Again, I can’t provide the “why” driving this unusual development. Perhaps it’s nothing more than randomness that corrects itself in 2024. But what if it’s a harbinger of decline?

The ballpark

I don’t put any weight into Chapman’s .179 AVG/.253 OBP/.278 SLG slash-line in 178 career plate appearances at T-Mobile Park. It’s a relatively small sample spread over multiple seasons. That said, we can’t dismiss the fact Seattle’s home field depresses offense as much as any active MLB venue.

For example, fly balls produced by right-handed hitters at T-Mobile Park have averaged 309 feet over the past three seasons. This ties for lowest among full-time MLB venues with Chapman’s first home - the Oakland Coliseum.

With this in mind, it’s reasonable to wonder whether a free agent slugger would entertain signing a short-term “prove it” deal with the Mariners in order to reestablish his value. It’s a topic the newsletter tackled last offseason.

Diminished fly ball productivity

Sticking with this theme, Chapman recorded a .229/.226/.724 slash on fly balls last year. A .724 SLG may sound impressive until we realize the MLB SLG on fly balls was .845 last year. Not only that, the 2023 campaign was the first time the 25th-overall pick of 2014 produced a SLG below .975 on this type of batted ball.

Chapman’s SLG on Fly Balls

2017 - 1.129
2018 - 1.045
2019 - 1.133
2021 - .983
2022 - 1.009
2023 - .724

MLB SLG on fly balls in 2023 = .845

Chapman’s diminished power on fly balls is likely connected to the declining barrel success we’ve discussed. But it’s important to recognize the All-Star has been making outs on fly balls much more frequently for several years.

Does a player with declining fly ball productivity make sense for a club playing its home games in a ballpark notorious for suppressing airborne batted balls?

It doesn’t to me.

Why not just keep Geno?

The Mariners could’ve simply retained Suárez, which would’ve rendered the Chapman speculation moot. How many of you knew the Venezuelan was more productive than Chapman over the final five months of 2023?

Well, he was.

There’s another consideration regarding Suárez that’s worthy of being highlighted. Geno did something better than a significant number of Seattle hitters - produce at T-Mobile Park.

In two seasons as a Mariner, Suárez posted a higher OPS at home (.762) than on the road (.739). Even during his difficult 2023 campaign, the 10-year veteran produced better at the ballpark at the corner of Edgar & Dave than he did on road trips.

How many of you had that nugget on your bingo card?

Perhaps Chapman also enjoys success similar to Suárez’s at T-Mobile Park. But how much money would you bet on it? Remember, we’re talking about a hitter, who experienced significantly less success on barrels and fly balls last year.

The defense rests?

Chapman has a well-deserved reputation for being one of baseball’s best defensive third baseman. Yet, I see a trend suggesting he may be losing a step at the hot corner.

Since debuting in 2017, Chapman has earned four Gold Gloves and two Platinum Gloves. Furthermore, the 54 outs above average (OAA) amassed over his career is second only to fellow El Toro High alum Nolan Arenado.

Highest Total 3B OAA Since 2017

Nolan Arenado - 78
Matt Chapman - 54
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 51
Ryan McMahon - 33
José Ramírez - 30
Josh Donaldson - 20
Alex Bregman - 19
Manny Machado - 18
Eugenio Suárez - 17
Kyle Seager - 14

Average OAA always = 0

But now let’s consider the last two seasons. Chapman’s OAA is still good, although it’s no longer great. In fact, he finished outside the top-10 in each of the last two years.

Highest 3B OAA (2022-23)

Manny Machado - 20
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 35
Ryan McMahon - 20
Nolan Arenado - 19
Maikel Garcia - 13
Eugenio Suárez - 11
Alex Bregman - 10
José Ramírez - 9
DJ LeMahieu - 8
Jace Peterson - 8
Josh Donaldson - 7
Matt Chapman - 6
Josh Jung - 6

Am I suggesting Chapman is about to become a defensive liability at third base?

Absolutely not. But a segment of Mariners fans emphasize fielding ability as an element of his game the current Seattle third base duo of Urías and Josh Rojas probably won’t be able to replicate.

True, but it’s important to recognize Chapman’s surest attribute - his golden glove - may be slowly losing its luster.

If you’re interested in learning more about OAA, check out the official MLB glossary explanation. Another useful reference is an excellent article written by Mike Petriello of MLB discussing OAA for infielders.

Well?

At first blush, Chapman's history of making quality contact and hitting dingers, plus his Gold Glove defense make him an appealing target. But would the Mariners, or any club, be getting that player in 2024?

The potential indicators of regression we’ve discussed suggest the answer may be no.

The Mariners adding Chapman just wouldn't make sense for me. I’m not suggesting the team is set at third base. But I don’t see any merit in obligating limited payroll dollars to a 30-something player, who may be showing signs of offensive and defensive decline.

Then again, I wouldn’t criticize the organization if it were to ink Chapman to a deal. Let’s face it, the big brains in Seattle’s baseball operations department are better-versed on his value and abilities than me. After all, it’s their job to know more than anyone else.

Having said that, color me surprised if Matt Chapman is a Mariner on Opening Day.

My Oh My…