No place like home?

Home is where the heart is. But does T-Mobile Field’s reputation make the Emerald City less appealing to free agent hitters?

The Seattle Mariners’ reluctance to heavily invest in free agents, particularly position players, has been a richly-debated topic within the team’s fan base this offseason. In other words, it’s ignited fiery exchanges on multiple platforms - the airwaves, podcasts, the blogosphere, and of course Twitter.

Still, I often wonder whether T-Mobile Park’s long-standing reputation for depressing offense might dampen a free agent hitter’s enthusiasm toward signing with the Mariners.

The negative influence T-Mobile Park has on run production isn’t exactly breaking news. Yet, Seattle’s home field disadvantage isn’t often mentioned when fans discuss the organization’s effort to build a competitive lineup.

Perhaps it should be.

When’s the next road trip?

Consider this. In 21 of the last 23 seasons, the Mariners have scored more runs on the road than at T-Mobile Park. The exceptions were 2005 and 2008. Last year was more of the same with the team’s numbers being considerably worse at home than on the road.

Something else regarding Seattle’s offense merits mention. Not only was run production better away from home, it was top-10 in multiple categories.

Mariners Road Production (and MLB Rank)
372 runs (9th in MLB)
100 HR (6th)
9.9 BB% (2nd)
22.2 SO% (10th)
.236 AVG (16th)
.322 OBP (7th)
.399 SLG (12th)
.720 OPS (8th)
.317 wOBA (8th)

Considering the lineup’s success on the road in 2022, we should discuss elements of Seattle’s offense affected most by the ballpark at the corner of Edgar & Dave. Doing so may give us insight on why a free agent hitter may prefer looking elsewhere for employment.

Feeling a bit sluggish

Dating back to the beginning of the Statcast era in 2015, the Mariners have the fifth-lowest home SLG (.399). During the same eight-year span, their SLG on the road (.417) was eighth-best. The only team with a more negative difference between its home and away SLG than Seattle’s -.018 gap was the New York Mets (-.026).

When we drill down to an individual level, the Mariners’ home field disadvantage comes more into focus. To see what I mean, check out the SLG splits of current and former Mariners and the deltas between each stat.

Depending on your perspective, there’s some good news and bad news here. On one hand, two of the three hitters with a better SLG at T-Mobile Park than on the road are on the current roster - Julio Rodríguez and Tom Murphy. The third, Luis Torrens, is a free agent.

Then again, two youngsters expected to clobber baseballs - Cal Raleigh and Jarred Kelenic - slugged significantly better away from home. It’s important to note we’re dealing with small sample sizes with each of these players.

Still, it’s tough to ignore the number of accomplished big-league Mariner hitters performing better away from Seattle. In some cases, over multiple seasons. Specifically: Nelson Cruz, Robinson Canó, Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger, Ty France, and Eugenio Suárez.

Sure, several of these players performed very well at T-Mobile Park despite its effect on offense. But that doesn’t erase the fact each experienced a noticeably lower SLG at home.

Maybe the Mariners should bring back Luis Torrens.

I’m just kidding.

Or am I?

Home runs

Okay, we’ve established slugging is more challenging in Seattle than other locations. However, the Mariners were actually decent at hitting homers last season - even at T-Mobile Park.

The Mariners hit the twelfth-most home runs (97) of any home team last year; just one fewer than a Colorado Rockies team calling mile-high Denver home. On the road, Seattle’s 100 dingers ranked sixth.

From a ratio standpoint, the Mariners’ 3.3% home run rate at T-Mobile Park was essentially the same as it was on the road (3.2%). Moreover, both stats were better than the overall MLB average (2.9%).

Clearly, hitting homers wasn’t a major issue for the Mariners last year. However, producing a more common type of extra-base hit was. In fact, it’s been a chronic issue in the Emerald City.

Doubles

During the Statcast era (2015-22), Seattle’s 1,854 doubles ranked 29th in MLB ahead of the Miami Marlins (1,809). When we view the home and away production of these extra-base hits, a familiar pattern emerges.

With the exception of one season (2017), the Mariners’ doubles tally at home fell in the bottom 20-percent of the league. Conversely, the team’s rankings looked decidedly better on the road except for the 2019 campaign.

Please note the 2020 season was intentionally excluded - it’s a small sample size. Besides, Seattle played eight more road games than home contests.

More food for thought. In 2016-18, the Mariners had Cruz, Canó, Seager, and Haniger anchoring the lineup. Yet, the team’s 356 doubles at home ranked 28th in the majors, while its road total (432) was ninth-best.

Homers or bust?

So far, we’ve determined the Mariners could clobber home runs anywhere last year, including T-Mobile Park. But hitting doubles in Seattle remained problematic. With this in mind, I revisited the team’s home and away slugging percentages, but through a different lens.

Since it’s clear the Mariners could hit home runs, I focused on line drives and fly balls not resulting in homers. After all, the vast majority of doubles (86.1%) were generated by these types of batted balls in 2022.

Last year, no venue experienced a lower SLG off these types of batted balls than T-Mobile Park did (.457). Next lowest was San Diego’s Petco Park (.470) - that’s a significant difference.

Naturally, the Mariners’ .459 home SLG off non-HR line drives and fly balls was also the worst in MLB. However, the team did post a .525 SLG on the road. Not quite to the league-average mark (.535), but significantly better.

Once again, let’s look at individuals. This time, Seattle’s most utilized hitters in 2022. Please note, the following stats encompasses each player’s entire Mariners career. Not just last year for those with the club for multiple seasons.

It’s important to note quantity of contact *and* quality of contact have a major effect on our specialized metric. It’s not just about the ballpark.

So yes, T-Mobile Park favors pitchers more than hitters. But Seattle’s doubles issue was at least partially attributable to its roster makeup. After all, the Mariners were “out-doubled” 249 to 201 during home games over the past two seasons.

And that’s where this offseason re-enters our conversation.

Welcome to Seattle?

Undoubtedly, many factors affect a free agent’s decision-making when it comes to finding a new home. There are certainly others, but several immediately popping into my include family, playing time opportunities, organizational culture, geographic location, team success, and financial security. So does T-Mobile Park’s reputation as a pitcher-friendly venue.

Look at it this way. If you were representing a free agent hitter looking to sign a one- or two-year “prove it” deal, would you suggest Seattle and its suboptimal offensive environment as a top destination? Especially if your player had received multiple offers with similar financial terms.

I wouldn’t.

T-Mobile Park is an absolute gem to watch a ballgame in. But notable free agents looking to rebound in 2023 (Cody Bellinger, Michael Conforto, Joey Gallo) may have been concerned about how playing in Seattle might affect their stats. The same could apply to established veterans (J.D. Martinez, Wil Myers, Michael Brantley) wanting to extend their respective careers via short-term deals.

Am I suggesting all free agent position players would be unwilling to take a starting role with the Mariners on a short-term contract?

No, of course not.

It’s possible someone like Trey Mancini, Jurickson Profar, or Andrew McCutchen could choose to play for the Mariners in 2023 provided the team had interest in signing them.

That said, it’s reasonable to believe a hitter wanting to make a big splash and then re-enter free agency may prefer playing home games in a ballpark more friendly to offense than T-Mobile Park.

A method to their madness?

Perhaps the Mariners’ draft, develop, trade philosophy takes into account the challenges of hitting (and the benefits of pitching) at T-Mobile Park.

Comments by GM Justin Hollander following the Teoscar Hernández trade suggest the team’s home field is a consideration when acquiring players.

“I don’t really think the park effects or other things will be an issue coming to T-Mobile because of the way in which he (Hernández) hits the ball, the velocity angles, just the way he attacks the baseball.” - Mariners GM Justin Hollander

Sure, T-Mobile Park could inhibit Hernandez’s production numbers like so many other sluggers before him. But there’s no reason, other than health, the 30-year-old won’t provide significantly more pop in right field than what the Mariners received from the position last year (.386 SLG).

Time will tell whether the same applies to newly acquired second baseman Kolten Wong. That said, I do believe Wong’s 35.9% hard-hit rate positions him to deliver more offense than Mariner second baseman did last year with a combined 26.7% hard-hit rate.

As for hitters the Mariners have parted with this offseason, three had well below average hard-hit rates - Adam Frazier, (24.5 %), Abraham Toro (29.7%) and Jesse Winker (34.3%) and were less than stellar with their bats.

The trio of Frazier, Toro, and Winker accounted for 24.5% of Seattle’s total plate appearances and put up a .219 AVG/.301 OBP/.326 SLG slash-line. Oh, and their combined hard-hit rate was 28.9%.

Perhaps the front office knows what they’re doing after all.

I think they do.

Finally

Based on comments by Hollander and President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto, the Mariners likely make additions to the roster before Opening Day. Perhaps a free agent hitter like Mancini, Profar, McCutchen, or someone else is signed to deepen the lineup. Then again, there’s always the organization’s preferred method of acquisition - trades.

Regardless of the route taken, expect T-Mobile Park’s effect on batted balls to factor into management’s decision-making process. Understandably, a segment of fans would’ve preferred the team had already made all the necessary offseason moves. But instant gratification isn’t a thing in baseball, is it?

Look at it this way, anxious Mariners fans. If all else fails, a Luis Torrens reunion is still a possibility.

I’m just kidding.

Or am I?

My Oh My…