Mariners at Memorial Day: Run Production

Seattle's offense is giving many fans a sense of déjà vu in a bad way.

Abbie Parr / AP Images

The Mariners enter the Memorial Day weekend atop the AL West division with a three-game over the reigning World Series champion Rangers. Yet, there’s unease about this team across the Pacific Northwest.

The source of this anxiety is an offense struggling to adequately support one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. An understandable sentiment once we reflect on the Mariners’ win-loss record based on run scored.

M’s W-L Record Based On Runs Scored

Three-or-fewer runs (5-22)
Four runs (6-2)
Five runs (6-1)
Six runs (4-0)
Seven-plus runs (6-0)

What stands out to me is the fact that the Mariners have scored three-or-fewer runs in 27 games this season, which ties for fifth-most in MLB and accounts for 52-percent of the team’s contests. Obviously, things are going well. So, let’s take a closer look at Seattle’s run production effort.

The baby is ugly

The Mariners rank in the bottom-third of baseball in nearly every category illustrated below. Even worse, only the White Sox are averaging fewer runs scored/game (RS/G) than Seattle.

Through the first two months of the season, most of the hitters expected to be pillars of the offense have underperformed the back of their baseball card - some in a big way. The end result is an inconsistent lineup that’s generally been too short.

A simple method I use to gauge a lineup’s length is to determine how many players have an OPS+ greater than the MLB average. At this point of the season, I’m referring to hitters with 100-plus plate appearances.  

On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) is a normalized version of OPS that adjusts for park and league conditions. OPS+ is scaled so 100 is always league-average. As a result, an OPS+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 OPS+ would be 20-percent below average.

Currently, Seattle has four such players satisfying this criteria: Dylan Moore, Cal Raleigh, Luke Raley, and Josh Rojas. Only two clubs have fewer than the Mariners - the Reds and Blue Jays. The Orioles lead MLB with eight.

OPS+ of M’s Hitters

Dylan Moore – 146
Josh Rojas – 127
Cal Raleigh – 116
Luke Raley – 115
Ty France – 94
J.P. Crawford – 88
Mitch Haniger – 85
Julio Rodríguez - 79
Mitch Garver – 79
Jorge Polanco - 74

MLB Average OPS+ = 100

What I find striking about the preceding list is three of the four Mariners with an above-average OPS+ weren’t viewed as everyday players on Opening Day: Luke Raley, Josh Rojas, and Dylan Moore.

Raley and Rojas were projected to play frequently, but in a platoon or a timeshare arrangement. Moore was expected to continue in the utility role he’s filled since his MLB debut with Seattle in 2019.

The following illustrates the 2023 and 2024 OPS+ of the scuffling core players I’ve been referring to. Anyone significantly less productive than last year is highlighted.

The only regular delivering at an expected level is Cal Raleigh. That’s a tough reality to overcome, even when a few supporting cast members try to cover for the headliners.

It’s important to note Dominic Canzone currently has a 118 OPS+. But the left-handed corner outfielder didn’t qualify for our list since he has just 55 plate appearances following a brief IL stint with a shoulder injury. Canzone rejoined the Mariners last week.

For those preferring conventional numbers, the Mariners have just two players with 100-plus plate appearances who are also above average in all three slash categories - AVG, OBP, and SLG. They are Raley and Rojas. The Phillies, Diamondbacks, Yankees, and Astros are pacing the league with six.

The following provides a visual of Mariners exceeding the league average in at least one of the three slash categories. It’s a remarkably small and discouraging list.

Whether we use sabermetric measurements or old-school stats, it’s evident the Mariners’ lineup hasn’t fielded enough productive hitters through the first third of the 2024 campaign. So, what’s going on in the Emerald City?

Oh, you know what’s going on.

Too many strikeouts!

While strikeouts have been on the rise in baseball for over a decade, the amount of swing and miss in Seattle’s lineup over the last two seasons has reached a crippling level. Currently, the team has a 28.1-percent strikeout rate – nearly six points worse than the average hitter and any team, ever.

When we look at individual Mariners, the issue is even more ominous. Ten hitters are striking out at least two-percent more often than the average player. Six are over the 30-percent mark, which I view as a line of death for offensive productivity.

Strikeout Rates of M’s

Seby Zavala - 40.5%
Luis Urías - 34.1%
Cal Raleigh - 33.7%
Jorge Polanco - 31.8%
Mitch Garver - 31.6%
Dominic Canzone - 30.9%
Julio Rodríguez - 28.2%
Mitch Haniger - 27.8%
Luke Raley - 26.1%
Ty France - 24.3%
Dylan Moore - 23.5%
J.P. Crawford - 21.4%
Josh Rojas - 20.1%

MLB average = 22.3%

Granted, the name atop the leaderboard, backup catcher Seby Zavala, plays sparingly. However, the duo of Zavala and starter Raleigh has a 35.2-percent strikeout rate, which leads their position by about three-percent.

The combination of striking out at a historically high rate and playing games in a ballpark rated as one of the least conducive for offense has affected Seattle’s ability to consistently generate and sustain rallies in a very negative manner.

Where’s the SLG?

Some may argue Raleigh striking out frequently isn’t as bad as it seems since he delivers power when he does make contact. Fair enough. But a side-by-side review of the strikeout rates and SLG of his teammates reveals most of the high swing and miss guys are slugging well below the league average.

The most alarming names with limited SLG are Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco, and Julio Rodríguez. Garver and Polanco were the team’s biggest offseason additions expected to add pop and help drive down the lineup’s strikeout rate. Rodríguez is the team’s most talented player and a potential superstar. But Polanco, Rodríguez, Garver, plus Haniger and Ty France all rank in the bottom-50 among qualified hitters.

This seems suboptimal.   

RISPy business

An optimist may note the Mariners have a respectable .259 AVG/.328 OBP/.423 SLG slash-line with runners in scoring position (RISP). True, but a realist will likely push back by pointing out that Seattle has 405 plate appearances with RISP. The fewest in MLB by a large margin and well under the MLB average.

Fewest PA’s w/RISP

SEA - 405
OAK - 426
CHW - 430
MIA - 438
CIN - 450
BAL - 463
TOR - 466
DET - 470
TBR - 474
LAA - 479

MLB average = 488

For me, there are two primary root causes. One has already been covered - strikeouts. The other is the lineup’s inability to produce doubles. Obviously, two-baggers automatically create a RISP situation. Unfortunately, the Mariners rank last in this category. Once again, the team is well below average.

Fewest Doubles

SEA - 58
MIA - 64
TEX - 68
TBR - 70
CHC - 73
WSN - 73
CIN - 75
PHI - 75
PIT - 76
DET -77

MLB average = 81

Here’s another nugget bound to make some heads spin. The Mariners have the same number of doubles as home runs. The league is averaging 27 more doubles than home runs. Seattle is also one of three clubs that doesn’t have a hitter with at least 10 doubles. The team leaders are Moore (9), France (7), Garver (7), Haniger (6), Rojas (5), and Rodríguez (5).

Better days ahead?

I do believe the lineup, combined with an excellent pitching staff, can propel the Mariners to the AL West division title. But the majority of the projected core contributors - Rodríguez, Crawford, Polanco, Garver, France, Haniger - must begin producing. It’s unreasonable to expect Raley, Rojas, and Moore to carry a large portion of the load for the rest of the season.

Raley has never played more than 123 games as a professional. Therefore, he remains an unknown quantity over the span of a full MLB season. Do his numbers suffer from the additional playing time? Or, does the 29-year-old rise to a new level with the opportunity Seattle is providing him?

The career OPS+ of Moore (103) and Rojas (95) suggests they’re destined to be average-ish run producers by season’s end. We’ve already seen Rojas’ numbers begin to suffer after a torrid start. Perhaps one or both players defy their history. But until they do, it’s reasonable to question whether they can continue to thrive through October.

Considering the state of the offense, this nerd would like to see the front office acquire another established bat prior to the July 31 trade deadline. Someone possessing a blend of power and on-base ability would be ideal. Sounds so easy, right?

It’s not.

Still, it’s important to recognize that even a superstar bat like Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, or Shohei Ohtani wouldn’t fix the Mariners’ offensive woes unless their current stable of proven hitters begin to consistently deliver at the plate.

For this reason, it’s imperative that Seattle’s hitters demonstrate to management between now and the end of July that it should lean forward and add impact to the roster. Otherwise, we may see another deadline come and go with nothing more than a series of lateral moves.

That’s an approach unlikely to generate high fan morale or success in September and October.

My Oh My…