Potential outfield trade targets for the Mariners
These outfielders could potentially help kickstart Seattle's sputtering run production effort.
We’ve already discussed nine interesting infielders capable of helping the lineup of the Mariners or any contender. Now, let’s turn our attention to outfield trade candidates, who could potentially make a positive impact on Seattle’s offense.
As mentioned during our infielder conversation, my focus was on players’ on-field contributions, not financial matters or contract talk. As you peruse the names listed below, please remember it’s still too early to know how many of these hitters will be made available by their current clubs. Another unknown, the Mariners’ interest in acquiring any of these candidates.
Luis Robert Jr., CF - White Sox
Selling points: Robert earned All-Star and Silver Slugger honors on the way to hitting a career-high 38 home runs last year, which was ninth-most in MLB. In fact, only seven qualified batters finished with a higher SLG than the 26-year-old did.
Robert is a premium center field defender. Last year, his 13 outs above average (OAA) ranked third among big-league center fielders, just ahead of Seattle’s Julio Rodríguez. Some may even dare to make the case that Robert was a better defender than Rodríguez in 2023.
At 28.9 ft/sec, Robert’s average sprint speed remains well above the MLB average (27 ft/sec). The only Mariners with a better sprint speed than the 2020 AL Rookie of the Year are Rodríguez (29.7) and Jonatan Clase (29.3). Luke Raley is tied with Robert.
In 28 games this season, Robert has an impressive 18.5-percent barrel rate. This resembles what he produced last year (15.4-percent) when he was 19th-best in MLB. The closest Mariner to Robert in 2023 was Teoscar Hernández (13.8-percent).
Potential concerns: Availability is an often-discussed topic with Robert. Multiple IL stints have limited him to an average of 104 games annually in 2021-23. The most concerning injury to this unqualified nerd is a hip issue sidelining him for half of 2021 and two months this season. Is this happenstance or the onset of a chronic problem?
Even though Robert enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2023, he struck out significantly more often than previous years. His 28.9-percent strikeout rate was ninth-highest among qualified hitters. This number has only worsened this year, although we’re talking about a relatively small sample size.
Thoughts: Robert is undoubtedly ultra-talented and a dynamic contributor, when healthy. He possesses a nice blend of power and speed and is an elite-level center field defender. The issue confronting potential buyers is whether the product of Ciego de Avila, Cuba will be available often enough to help a contender win this season and in the future.
Bryan Reynolds, LF/RF - Pirates
Selling points: Reynolds has been a very consistent offensive performer. This becomes evident when we compare his current production to the combined .263 AVG/.337 OBP/.461 SLG slash-line and 117 wRC+ he delivered in 2022-23.
Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) quantities how a hitter’s total offensive value compares with the league average after adjusting for park effects. League-average is always 100. Therefore, a wRC+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 wRC+ would be 20-percent below average.
The switch-hitting Reynolds has been productive from both sides of the plate, although he’s delivered better results against right-handed pitchers (.837 OPS) than lefties (.768). Then again, the only Mariners with a higher OPS versus southpaws than the Vanderbilt product are J.P. Crawford (.821) and Mitch Garver (.796).
If Reynolds were already a Mariner, he’d be the most productive hitter on the team, leading Seattle in doubles, AVG, OBP, SLG, wOBA, and wRC+. Only Cal Raleigh (14) has more home runs. Furthermore, his strikeout rate would tie for second-lowest with Crawford behind leader Josh Rojas (19-percent).
Although he’s not a big base stealer, Reynolds has flashed above-average sprint speed (28 ft/sec). From a defensive perspective, the 29-year-old has been a corner outfielder for the Pirates this season. He did start 13 games in center field last year.
Potential concerns: Statcast’s OAA, which measures range, doesn’t like Reynolds’ outfield defense. This season, his minus-9 OAA ties for worst among 128 qualified outfielders with Mets right fielder Starling Marte.
Thoughts: Is Reynolds a superstar? No. But with the exception of his defense, the numbers say the one-time All-Star is very good at every other aspect of the game. He frequently reaches base, possesses extra-base power, and is an excellent runner. Any contender, including the Mariners, would benefit from having such a player join its roster.
Jazz Chisholm Jr., CF/2B - Marlins
Selling points: Chisholm’s OBP and SLG are both above-average. The only Mariner currently meeting this rather straightforward criteria is utility-man Dylan Moore. Furthermore, the left-handed hitter is just one of 14 players in the majors with double-digit totals in home runs, doubles, and stolen bases this season.
Chisholm also boasts an above-average 28.5 ft/sec sprint speed, which makes him top-35 among 187 players with 75-plus competitive runs this season. The one-time All-Star has used his superb speed to steal 14 bases this year. Rodríguez (16) is the lone Mariner with more swiped bags than Chisholm.
Originally a shortstop before becoming an above-average glove at second base, Chisholm moved to center field prior to last season. While he’s hovering around average-ish this year, the Nassau, Bahamas native did demonstrate above-average range in 2023 with 4 OAA.
Potential concerns: Chisholm has a 25.4-percent strikeout rate this season, which would be somewhat problematic for an already high swing & miss team like the Mariners. Especially, when you consider he has a 28.4-percent strikeout rate during 1,500-plus plate appearances spanning five big-league seasons.
From Opening Day 2021 through the end of last year, Chisholm has averaged just 94 games annually. The only season the 26-year-old has appeared in over 100 games is 2021. Reasons landing him on the IL include injuries involving his hamstring, back, toe, shoulder, and oblique. It’s important to note Chisholm has played in 98-percent of Miami’s games in 2024.
Thoughts: There’s a lot to like about Chisholm. He’s fleet afoot with extra-base power. Plus, he’s demonstrated the unique ability to play both second base and center field. Still, prior availability challenges and a history of frequent strike outs are reasons to question whether he’d be an ideal fit for a contender this year and beyond.
Bryan De La Cruz, OF/DH - Marlins
Selling points: De La Cruz’s 11.1-percent barrel and 43.7-percent hard-hit rates indicate he’s quite capable of making loud, quality contact. The Dominican Republic native would lead Mariner hitters in doubles and he’d be in a tie with Raleigh for most home runs.
De La Cruz has a strong throwing arm (89.5 mph average velocity). Good enough for tenth-best among 44 qualified left fielders. He also possesses slightly above-average sprint speed (27.4 ft/sec).
Potential concerns: De La Cruz strikes out more than preferred. Currently, the fourth-year player has a 25.1-percent strikeout rate, which is 37th-highest among 146 qualified hitters. Yes, his strikeout rate wouldn’t necessarily stand out on the Mariners. But that’s not saying much.
Dating back to the beginning of the 2023 season, De La Cruz has been more productive at home than on the road. His .799 OPS at loanDepot Park is considerably better than the .638 OPS he has generated away from Miami. Per Statcast’s Park Factors, the Marlins’ home field ranks tenth in hitter-friendliness. As we all know, T-Mobile Park is last.
De La Cruz’s minus-5 OAA ranks 117th among the 128 qualified outfielders we cited during our Reynolds discussion. Just to reiterate, this suggests below-average outfield range.
Thoughts: After initially reviewing De La Cruz’s numbers, I considered excluding him from our conversation. But the right-handed hitter made the cut because several fans suggested him to me. Having said that, De La Cruz is 27-years-old, has a 99 wRC+ after 1,543 MLB plate appearances, and is a below-average outfield glove. I struggle to envision how such a player would fit on the current Mariners team.
Taylor Ward, LF - Angels
Selling points: Ward makes a lot of quality contact. His 16-percent barrel rate is 14th-best in MLB. He also brings a top-35 walk rate to the table.
Statcast’s fielding run value suggests Ward is an above-average left field defender this season. It’s worth noting he’s covered the other two outfield positions in the past. But the 30-year-old has primarily appeared in left field over the last two years.
Potential concerns: The right-handed hitting Ward is having a nice season. But it’s worth noting he’s feasted on southpaw pitching, while being ordinary against right-handers. This development dates back to the beginning of the 2023 campaign.
Ward’s Platoon Splits (2023-24)
vs RHP: 557 PA /.223 AVG /.312 OBP /.392 SLG
vs LHP: 180 PA /.327 AVG /.389 OBP /.551 SLG
Thoughts: Ward’s 111 wRC+ over the past two seasons tells us he’s been an above-average run producer during this timeframe. He’s a solid player with respectable power, who could potentially help the Mariners.
Still, let’s not forget Seattle has made four trades with the Angels in 47 years with the last one being over a decade ago. Never say never, but the two teams hooking up for a deadline deal feels like a reach to this blogger.
Lane Thomas, RF - Nationals
Selling points: After a slow start, Thomas boasts a combined .287 AVG/.341 OBP/.565 SLG slash with a 149 wRC+ in May and June. The Knoxville, Tennessee native also has six home runs and eight doubles since May 1.
The 29.2 ft/sec sprint speed of Thomas ranks 21st among 292 players with 50-plus competitive runs. Furthermore, Rodríguez is the only Seattle runner with more “bolts” (40) than the 28-year-old (nine). Thomas has taken advantage of this quickness to steal 17 bases for Washington this year.
Thomas’ arm strength (92.6 mph) is 14th-best among all position players, not just outfielders.
Potential concerns: The right-handed hitting Thomas possesses extreme platoon splits. This year, he has a .648 OPS versus right-handed pitching compared to .938 against lefty hurlers.
Even though Thomas has a cannon for an arm and he’s fast as greased lightning, his outfield range is significantly below-average. Toronto’s 5th-round pick in 2014 has tallied minus-7 OAA, which ties him with teammate Jesse Winker for second-worst within our group of qualified 128 outfielders.
Thoughts: The stats tell us Thomas is an average-ish run producer, who’s capable of being disruptive on the base paths. However, the metrics also suggest he may be a liability in the field and better-suited for a platoon role.
Randy Arozarena, LF - Rays
Selling points: After a sluggish start to the season, Arozarena has been on a heater. Over the last 30 days, he’s produced a .267 AVG/.412 OBP/.427 SLG slash-line and a 150 wRC+. Moreover, the Cuban has superb 14.4-percent walk and 18.6-percent strikeout rates during this span.
Over the previous three seasons, Arozarena’s wRC+ has remained between 124 and 127, which suggests he’s been a consistent, above-average run producer during this timeframe.
The bat may have started slowly, but Arozarena’s feet didn’t. His 28 ft/sec sprint speed is noticeably above the MLB average (27 ft/sec). Moreover, the 29-year-old has stolen 10 bases this season.
Potential concerns: Well, Arozarena did start slowly. This follows a noticeable decline in production during the second half of 2023.
Arozarena’s 2023 First & Second Half Splits
1st: 376 PA /.279 AVG/ .388 OBP/ .467 SLG
2nd: 278 PA /.220 AVG/ .331 OBP/ .369 SLG
Defensively, Arozarena’s range is slightly below-average. His minus-2 OOA ties for 26th with De La Cruz among 42 qualified left fielders.
Thoughts: Arozarena is popular with some Mariners fans, including Mrs. Arkins. If the 2020 ALCS MVP were to rebound to his 2021-23 production levels, he’d be a nice addition to clubs wanting to add an impact bat to its outfield.
Missed the cut
When we recently discussed infield trade candidates, very few suggestions from fans were excluded. Not so much with the outfield. There were several reasons I shied away from certain names.
Young players just getting established, such as Detroit’s Riley Greene and San Francisco’s Heliot Ramos, didn't make my list. Sure, they might help a contender. But I struggle to believe the Tigers and Giants would part ways with inexpensive, talented hitters like Greene and Ramos. Besides, it’s quite possible the Giants won’t be selling at the deadline and will be buyers instead.
Players on the injured list were also excluded. Most notably: Lars Nootbaar (Cardinals), Kerry Carpenter (Tigers), and Starling Marte (Mets).
I also chose to bypass discussions on high-strikeout hitters Ian Happ (27.4-percent strikeout rate) and Brent Rooker (34.6-percent). Both provide value to their respective teams. But to me, adding more swing & miss is something the Mariners can ill-afford to do.
And as with Alex Bregman in the infield piece, no Kyle Tucker. Houston isn’t dealing either of these guys to Seattle or any club this summer.
My Oh My…