Will the Mariners go “all-in” at the deadline?
The past doesn't predict the future. But Seattle's trade deadline history does call into question the likelihood of the organization adding impact to the roster this summer.
The Mariners sit atop the AL West division with a 43-31 record and a seemingly comfortable eight and one-half game lead on the second-place Rangers. As it should, this significant edge over the competition has super-charged speculation regarding Seattle’s strategy to improve its roster prior to the MLB trade deadline.
Do the Mariners pull off a blockbuster trade? Or, does the team choose to rely on a series of low-key deals, lateral moves, and minor-league call-ups instead?
Hard to tell with six weeks to go. After all, the Mariners have about 35 games remaining before the July 31 trade deadline. That’s a lot of baseball for the tide to shift within the division and the American League.
A year ago, Texas held a lead similar to the one Seattle currently boasts. But by the final weekend of the season, both clubs and Houston were in a heated three-way battle for the division title or a wild card berth.
For the sake of our conversation, let’s assume the Mariners continue their winning ways. In that scenario, making a large-scale trade has to be on the table for the club. At least that’s the way I see it.
Still, the Mariners pulling off a mammoth deadline deal is rarer than the franchise making the postseason during its 47-year history. My research found just one noteworthy trade involving a marquee name, in his prime, since Seattle’s first playoff run in 1995 - Luis Castillo.
La Piedra
As we all know, the Mariners acquired Castillo from the Reds on July 30, 2022. At the time of the deal, the club had the fourth-best record in the AL and held the second wild card spot. Seattle landed the Dominican Republic native, who was a bona-fide star, by offering the most appealing package of prospects from Cincinnati’s perspective: Edwin Arroyo, Andrew Moore, Noelvi Marte, and Levi Stoudt.
Castillo, who had a 2.86 ERA in 14 starts at the time of the trade, was an All-Star for the Reds that season and three years prior. The right-hander would help lead his new club to its first postseason appearance since 2001 and a wild card series victory over the Blue Jays.
An undistinguished history
Before the Castillo deal, there’s not much to talk about when it comes to big-ticket acquisitions involving Seattle. Recognizable names have been added through the years, although none were considered front-line players when they joined the Mariners. A sample of examples includes Andy Benes (1995), Jamie Moyer (1996), Austin Jackson (2014), Mark Trumbo (2015), and Yonder Alonso (2017). Only Moyer made a meaningful impact.
On the other hand, the Mariners have managed to peddle valuable contributors during previous summers with debatable success in terms of what the club received in return. The look in the rearview mirror we’re about to take will undoubtedly spur bad memories for some long-time followers of the team. Perhaps the newbies, too.
Just last season, the team shipped its best reliever - Paul Sewald - to Arizona for Ryan Bliss, Dominic Canzone and Josh Rojas. Sewald would then help the Diamondbacks reach the World Series. This transaction had a lateral feel to it. Hope to remain competitive, while adding young players who might help in the future.
In 2021, a similar fence-straddling approach was used. While still in the hunt for a wild card berth, the Mariners made an extremely popular trade with both players and fans that sent relievers Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero to Houston for reliever Joe Smith and infielder Abraham Toro.
Editor’s note: Trading Kendall Graveman was not extremely popular.
Seattle also dealt minor-leaguers Carter Bins and Joaquin Tejada to Pittsburgh for veteran starting pitcher Tyler Anderson. Finally, reliever Diego Castillo was acquired from Tampa Bay for reliever JT Chargois and minor-league infielder and Bellingham High School product Austin Shenton.
This trio of deals reconfigured Seattle’s bullpen and provided the starting rotation with a desperately-needed established arm. At the time, this approach seemed reasonable for a club emerging from a rebuild sitting on the fringe of contention. Not so much in 2023, though.
We travel back over a decade to find our next example of a noteworthy Mariner making a summertime departure. In 2010, then-GM Jack Zduriencik dealt pending free agent and one-time Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee, plus reliever Mark Lowe, to division-rival Texas for Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke and Matt Lawson. Lee helped catapult the Rangers to their first-ever Fall Classic.
The biggest summer sell-off from a name and talent perspective happened a quarter-century ago. On July 31, 1998, the Mariners traded two-time Cy Young Award winner and future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson to the Astros for pitchers Freddy García and John Halama and infielder Carlos Guillén.
Seattle received reasonable value in return for the Big Unit, who was a pending free agent. But many fans, including Mrs. A, were devastated by this deal. I learned this during our first date when she described her disappointment to me in great detail.
Decisions, decisions
So, what’s it going to be for the Mariners this summer?
Maybe Seattle pursues and lands a high-profile name such as Luis Robert Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr., or Pete Alonso. Perhaps the front office acquires a top-shelf player who wasn’t on anyone’s radar. For me, those are the most exciting deals.
Then again, it’s plausible the Mariners take a more reserved approach for a variety of reasons such as team finances or confidence in its current stable of players. With the exception of the Castillo deal, this has been the organization’s modus operandi throughout its existence.
Still, the Mariners have a special starting rotation capable of propelling the team to its first World Series. But to improve the club’s chances of actually reaching the Fall Classic, the lineup and bullpen requires augmentation in a meaningful way. Perhaps this doesn’t require trading for a big-name. However, adding established talent capable of making an immediate impact is a must.
Let’s face it. At this point, long-time Mariners fans, including Mrs. A, deserve this level of effort from a franchise they’ve faithfully supported for so many decades. Anything to the contrary would be unconscionable.
My Oh My…
I’m thinking we go after a bullpen arm or two.