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Thanks for the analysis Luke,

So after last night's 8th inning implosion, do you still believe? ;-)

I also glanced at situational - M's RISP avg. (I forget ~.221?) but another bottom 3 stat.

Back to your analysis: As Twain said; "there's damn lies & then there's statistics..."

It's one thing to point at a mass of data. Making sense of the data is another matter: where's the smoke and where's the fire?

Within the pile of stats you present I say the fire is "25.9 K% (29th)".

1. M's don't know where the strike zone is AND 2. Can't hit breaking balls (per my eyeballs, too lazy to see if stats support).

From his beginning Dipoto said we want to get younger, athletic, good fundamentals, pitching, defense & base-running, control the strike zone. The only out and out fail is "control the strike zone". Dipoto's done a great job with M's organization, except for hitting. M's have 1. failed to develop MLB-quality hitters in their minor leagues and 2. the M's MLB team hitting approach is not working.

As for the individual stats:

If Kelenic hadn't risen from the dead & Caballero hadn't bailed M's out from Wong, where would 1st half M's be? (not rhetorical question - I think it'd already be "wait'll next year")

JRod's 2023 season-to-date is a failure. How many times have M's fans fallen for the hype of one good season only to witness MLB pitchers adjust and Ackley, Smoak, Montero, D-Mo, now JRod-thus-far; fail to meet the challenge? (who did I miss???)

Only Seattle, with it's sports-inferiority-complex, would anoint JRod, "superstar" in his rookie season - by 710AM and the M's other hype machines. JRod is NOT a superstar, but he probably believes it too. It's too much pressure to put on a still-maturing 22 y.o. to live up to the billing. JRod's 2023 "approach" is swinging from his heels, way off balance, concentrating on "launch angle" & "exit velocity". He's a victim of the "it's ok to strike out a lot if you hit a lot of dingers" philosophy. Even when he smokes a ground ball single, many result from him topping a ball he's trying to launch, M's announcers still babble about his "exit velocity" on a worm burner single - talk about hype trains...

I agree with you the pitching & D are good enough.

But to get to post-season, team hitting approach must change from launch angles & exit velocity to plate selectivity, going with the pitch and elevating pitch counts by spoiling pitches they can't handle.

And it has to be done with the team they have, not with a miraculous acquisition, because except for Crawford, France & Kelenic (who may be fading), they're a bunch of swing-happy liabilities plus the Pollack/Wong/LaStella dumpster-dive failure.

Back to your statistical approach Luke: Mom said, "aim high to shoot high".

I'm waaay too lazy, but what do you think of doing M's comparison vs. over .500 teams or vs. division leaders? The expanded playoff format dilutes the value of all inclusive averages because every team "could get to post-season". What's the bar to actually BE post season, and how do M's compare with in-playoffs-as-of-today teams?

I suggest that approach will help us separate belief from delusion.

Mike A

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Thanks for reading & subscribing, Mike! Sounds like you’ve come up with quite a homework project for yourself. Enjoy!

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HAHA! You're adorable.

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Thanks for reading and subscribing, Tom!

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