Why I still believe in the Mariners

Things haven't been going well lately - this much is certain. But five factors lead me to believe the Mariners can still save their season.

Elaine Thompson / AP Images

It’s been a rough June for the Mariners. With one game remaining this month, Seattle has a 9-14 record. Only three American League clubs have been worse: the A’s, Tigers, and Royals. None were expected to contend in 2023 - the Mariners were.

Seattle’s June swoon leaves the team three games under .500 for the first time since May 2. Naturally, a vocal segment of Mariners Twitter has already reached DEFFCON ONE. Still, I’m not panicking nor am I giving up on the season. Quite the opposite.

I still believe in this team.

Sharing this opinion undoubtedly puts me in the crosshairs of Twitter’s legion of frustrated Mariners fans. But let’s face it; many of those folks probably didn’t bother to open this piece. They’re currently reacting to its title, which is fine.

So, why am I remaining positive about the 2023 Mariners?

Five relevant factors.

A rotation other clubs envy

There’s a reason current trade speculation largely focuses on the potential availability of starting pitchers. Strong starting pitching can propel a club into postseason contention - the Mariners have strong starting pitching.

Seattle’s rotation is tied with Houston’s and Toronto’s for most quality starts (40) in MLB. The starting staff is not only providing length, it’s delivering quality on a regular basis.

A key development has been the arrival of rookie starters Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Since early May, the starting staff has been one of the best in baseball.

Rotation stats (and MLB rankings) since May 1
291.1 IP (9th in MLB)
23.6 K% (11th)
5.6 BB% (1st)
1.12 WHIP (2nd)
3.83 FIP (4th)
3.95 ERA (7th)
.236 AVG (6th)
.282 OBP (1st)
.407 SLG (9th)
.298 wOBA (4th)
.314 xwOBA (5th)

It’s worth noting the Mariners will likely face workload challenges with Woo. But even if they pull the freshman from the rotation, Seattle is better positioned than most organizations to withstand less of Woo and more of an inferior starter.

Why?

The bullpen has been solid

Collectively, Mariner relievers haven’t been as dynamic as the last two seasons. But the bullpen continues to be an important and useful weapon for manager Scott Servais.

Bullpen stats (and MLB rankings)
266 IP (28th in MLB)
26.0 K% (6th)
9.3 BB% (12th)
1.29 WHIP (13th)
.237 AVG (14th)
.316 OBP (12th)
.354 SLG (4th)
.295 wOBA (7th)
.291 xwOBA (3rd)

Seattle’s relief pitchers have allowed the second-fewest home runs (25) of any bullpen in baseball. Granted, having the rotation cover so many innings helps mitigate a counting stat like home runs. Then again, the relief staff’s .354 SLG is fourth-best in MLB.

Realistically, the combined excellence of the rotation and bullpen should continue to keep the Mariners in most games. So should the players behind them in the field.

The defense isn’t flashy, but it’s been good enough

Other than Julio Rodríguez, there aren’t any potential Gold Glove finalists on the roster. Having said that, Seattle defenders haven’t been a liability to the run prevention effort. That’s what the eyeball test and advanced defensive metrics tell me.

Mariners defensive metrics
20 DRS (5th in MLB)
11 OAA (6th in MLB)

The solid glovework of the Mariners shouldn’t be overlooked or dismissed. After all, a run saved is as good as a run scored.

Speaking of run production.

The offense is disappointing, but not awful

Look, the lineup hasn’t produced many good news stories. It’s been inconsistent, strikes out too much, and vulnerable to breaking pitches. But the offense isn’t as bad as some suggest.

As frustrating as the season has been, the offense ranks 15th in the most important stat of all - runs scored. Last year, it ranked 18th.

Offensive stats (and MLB rankings)
4.47 RS/G (15th in MLB)
125 Doubles (23rd)
92 HR (16th)
52 SB (19th)
8.9 BB% (9th)
25.9 K% (29th)
.229 AVG (27th)
.307 OBP (24th)
.386 SLG (25th)
.304 wOBA (24th)
.325 xwOBA (12th)
97 OPS+ (20th)

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not suggesting anyone should be satisfied with the production of a lineup that struggles to come up with timely hits on a regular basis. Furthermore, ranking 20th-or-worse in doubles, strikeouts, AVG, OBP, SLG, wOBA, and OPS+ is suboptimal.

Still, I see a realistic path to the offense becoming postseason-worthy in 2023. The first step requires the current stable of Mariner hitters being more productive than it’s been thus far. To this nerd, a second-half surge is a doable do.

To see what I mean, look at the following, which compares the 2021-22 OPS+ of current Mariners to what they’ve produced this season. Also included, the delta between each column.

Is it unreasonable to believe Ty France, Julio Rodríguez, Teoscar Hernández, and Eugenio Suárez have the ability to improve to the levels they were producing at in 2021-22?

No.

France isn’t that far away, while Rodríguez is so gifted he could still eclipse his 2022 AL Rookie of the Year campaign. As for Hernández it appears he’s revived his season in June.

Suárez is undoubtedly having a disappointing year. But reaching a 105 OPS+ for the season seems within reach. He’s striking out noticeably less than 2022 and continues to draw walks. The key will be reigniting his power bat.

Can J.P. Crawford, Cal Raleigh, and Tom Murphy sustain what they’ve done through the first three months of the 2023 season?

Sure.

Crawford’s slash-line for this season looks very similar to years past. Raleigh is still developing as hitter. But he’s striking out less often than last year and is on pace to hit 20-plus doubles and home runs. Not bad for a switch-hitting catcher.

The Mariners appear to understand how to maximize Murphy’s offensive tools and are doing just that. He’s been extremely productive in limited opportunities. Barring injury, there’s no reason to think he won’t continue to do so. Perhaps we’ll see more of the 32-year-old over the next three months.

That brings us to several unknowns.

Will the first-half success of Jarred Kelenic carry over into the final months of the season?

It certainly could.

Sure, Kelenic has been slumping lately. But I’m more interested in what’s been accomplished since Opening Day. In my mind, maintaining his current .247 AVG/.326 OBP/.449 SLG is realistic. Doing so would be considered a breakout season for the 23-year-old.

Then there’s Kolten Wong and AJ Pollock.

Last November, I expressed concern with the Mariners acquiring Wong, although I have repeatedly suggested he’d outperform last year’s second basemen - oops. Still, no one could have predicted his free fall this season. Can the 11-year veteran rebound over the last three months of the season?

Hard to say without knowing the root cause of his issues.

It’s possible the way the Mariners have utilized Pollock has affected the 35-year-old’s ability to be the best version of himself.

In January, team president Jerry Dipoto suggested to The Brock and Salk Show the right-handed hitting Pollock would pair with a left-handed hitter in left field. Dipoto also said the veteran would also see time at designated hitter, plus in right field to get Hernández off his feet. This plan never became reality.

Granted, Kelenic got off to a hot start and performed better against southpaws than many had expected, while Pollock struggled to get going versus any pitchers. Then again, is it possible the veteran is scuffling because he’s playing less often than ever in his career?

Time may prove me wrong, but I think the answer could be yes.

The second step of turning around the offense involves adding at least one more established bat from outside the organization. We recently discussed several trade ideas I conjured up.

It’s been done before

As bleak as it seems right now, we should remember there is plenty of season remaining. To this point, MLB writer Andrew Simon recently chronicled the history of playoff-bound teams that got off to slow starts.

Division winners
38-43: 2013 Dodgers (finished 92-70)
38-43: 2008 Dodgers (finished 84-78)
39-42: 2012 Athletics (finished 94-68)
39-42: 2012 Tigers (finished 88-74)
40-41: 2022 Guardians (finished 92-70)
40-41: 2021 Braves (finished 88-73)
40-41: 2019 Cardinals (finished 91-71)
40-41: 2017 Cubs (finished 92-70)
40-41: 2004 Braves (finished 96-66)
40-41: 1997 Astros (finished 84-78)
40-41: 1995 Mariners (finished 79-66)

It turns out there are numerous examples of sluggish starters enjoying second-half resurgences and eventually winning their division title. One accomplished the feat last season. Another did it back in 1995. I’m confident you know the backstory of that club, so we’ll move on.

Among wild card comeback stories, last year’s Mariners are the most recent example. But let’s not forget Seattle’s 2021 edition. Even though it fell short of earning a postseason berth, it did win 90 games.

Wild Card winners
39-42: 2022 Mariners (finished 90-72)
39-42: 2018 Rockies (finished 91-72)
39-42: 2007 Rockies (finished 90-73)
39-42: 2005 Astros (finished 89-73)
39-42: 2001 Athletics (finished 102-60)
40-41: 2021 Cardinals (finished 90-72)
40-41: 2007 Yankees (finished 94-68)
40-41: 2003 Marlins (finished 91-71)
40-41: 2001 Cardinals (finished 93-69)

Obviously, the past doesn’t predict the future. But previous success stories do foster a sense of confidence the Mariners can rebound once again.

The front office will act

Assuming the players produce between now and the August 1 MLB trade deadline, does anyone believe management won’t make moves to improve the roster?

They will.

Last season, we saw the arrival of Luis Castillo, who was a game-changer. Granted, the deadline acquisitions of Jake Lamb, Matthew Boyd, and Curt Casali weren’t as flashy or productive as Castillo. Still, an effort was made to elevate the floor of the bench and bullpen.

I anticipate a similar approach this year - assuming the Mariners remain in contention.

To be clear…

The Mariners haven’t played well. It’s absolutely possible the team craters beginning tonight. After all, the only thing consistent about the offense is its inconsistency. That’s not going to work for a club swimming upstream to make the postseason.

Still, there are so many components of this roster capable of propelling it into contention. It’ll take the lineup picking up the pace, the pitching staff remaining healthy and effective, and the front office executing the right moves at the deadline.

Obviously, there will be no incentive for management to lean forward in July if the team falls in the standings. At that point, deals made will be more about 2024 and beyond than now. That would be unfortunate.

For now, I’ll continue to believe this Mariners club can adjust course and reach the postseason. It’s what I predicted before the season. I see no reason to waver from my pick now.

If I’m wrong, the usual suspects on Twitter will let me know about it. But who cares? Most of them didn’t even open this piece.

I’m always grateful you did.

My Oh My…