Rounding Out The Numbers
Off day reflections from the Consigliere.
It’s an off day. So, I compiled random thoughts and tidbits to help keep your mind focused on Mariners baseball until the team resumes play in Philadelphia tomorrow.
If this edition of Rounding Out The Numbers is received well, I’ll probably continue doing something similar whenever the Mariners aren’t playing. Feedback is always appreciated.
Oppo Taco Man
Jarred Kelenic has six home runs, which is great. But what’s really fun to me is Kelenic spreading his bombs all over the field.
Even more interesting, Kelenic did something twice over the weekend few players have accomplished more than once during the Statcast era, which dates back to 2015. What did the left-handed hitter do? Clobber two opposite field home runs on pitches in the lower left area of the strike zone highlighted in red below.
It turns out only three left-handed hitters have multiple opposite field home runs on pitches located in zone nine highlighted above. Freddie Freeman (3), Joey Votto (3), and Kelenic (2). You can see the entire list, which includes just 16 names here.
Video reel: Kelenic’s opposite field home runs vs the Cardinals
It’s important to note Daniel Kramer of MLB.com wrote an excellent piece about what Kelenic has achieved, which is truly special. Take the time to check out Daniel’s superb breakdown of Kelenic’s effort. You’ll be glad you did.
The season is still very young, so I won’t claim Kelenic has finally broken through. But what he’s done in his first 20 games (.319 AVG/.377 OBP/.667 SLG with a 194 OPS+) must make Seattle fans feel grateful that management practiced patience with the Wisconsin native.
Right field defense
Over the weekend, Mariners Twitter was decrying the glove work of Teoscar Hernández in right field. But as much as some fans hate his defense, advanced metrics see Hernández in a different light.
To date, Hernández’s five defensive runs saved (DRS) leads all right fielders with at least 90 innings at the position. Using the Statcast metric outs above average (OAA), only three right fielders have more OAA (2) than Hernández’s 1 OAA - Jake McCarthy, Alex Verdugo, and Joey Wiemer.
Something else to consider. Hernández’s arm strength (88.4 mph) is 27th best among all position players with 50-plus throws this season. Furthermore, his 28.3 ft/sec sprint speed is not only better than the league-average (27 ft/sec), it’s tied for seventh-best among right fielders with Ronald Acuña Jr.
Am I saying Hernández will eventually make Mariners fans forget the right field exploits of 10-time Gold Glover Ichiro Suzuki? No. However, it’s plausible the native of the Dominican Republic isn’t as bad as some fans believe.
That said, advanced defensive metrics are best served in large samples. Perhaps Hernández’s numbers plummet as the season progresses. But for now, I’ll rely on DRS and OAA over assessments performed via a TV.
Outfield Guns
Fun fact: Hernández’s good arm strength (88.4 mph) is actually the weakest among Seattle’s three regular outfielders. Ahead of the 30-year-old at tenth-overall is center fielder Julio Rodríguez (91.8 mph) with Kelenic (89.7 mph) ranking 17th.
Not-so-fun fact: It’s only fair to acknowledge second baseman Kolten Wong (66.9 mph) has the weakest arm strength of 111 fielders with at least 50 throws this season.
DH troubles
The designated hitter position has been woefully unproductive with a 20 wRC+ (yikes!), which ranks last in MLB. Seattle is the only team without a home run from its designated hitters.
Not to diminish the Mariners’ DH challenges, which are real and significant. But Seattle isn’t the only organization struggling to receive respectable production from the position. There are several projected postseason contenders among the five teams with the worst DH wRC+, including the reigning champs.
Lowest DH wRC+
MIL - 65
HOU - 61
ATL - 55
DET - 27
SEA - 20
How the Mariners have allocated DH time is perplexing to me. The player with the most plate appearances at the position is Cooper Hummel, a member of the Tacoma Rainiers.
DH Plate Appearances
Cooper Hummel - 24
AJ Pollock - 23
Tommy La Stella - 14
Teoscar Hernández - 11
Tom Murphy - 4
Cal Raleigh - 4
Having said that, AJ Pollock has been receiving more time at DH lately, including the last four games. Perhaps this trend continues moving forward.
Realistically, the Mariners could be short a bat and may eventually need to address the situation later in the season.
Sloth-like beginning
It’s been a rough start for Kolten Wong in the Emerald City. But it’s worth noting Wong also experienced a sluggish beginning in 2022. To date, he’s played 18 games with the Mariners. The following is a comp of his Seattle stats to his production through his first 18 contests with Milwaukee a year ago.
Wong demonstrated a little more extra-base power with the Brew Crew in 2022. But he’s drawn a few more walks this season, although he’s striking out more often than in the past. That said, his numbers for both seasons are suboptimal.
Is it a sure thing Wong makes a turnaround in 2023? No. But considering his career track record and the rebound he experienced last year; I suggest waiting until Memorial Day before making definitive statements about the 32-year-old’s outlook.
Where’s my glove?
Tommy La Stella has extensive experience at second base (2,083 innings) and third base (818). He also has 13 starts at first base since 2020. Yet, the veteran of 10 big-league seasons hasn’t played in the field this year. Fifteen of La Stella’s 18 plate appearances have been at DH - the rest were as a pinch hitter.
Perhaps the arm injury restricting La Stella from playing the field for most of Spring Training is still an issue. That said, carrying an infielder incapable of playing the infield is counterintuitive to this dopey nerd. Especially, when he’s not productive at the plate and key utility-man infielder Dylan Moore remains on the IL.
Check out the new guys
Yes, it’s early. But the Mariners may have done what they seem to do every offseason. Identify and acquire unheralded relievers, who end up being valuable contributors to the bullpen. This year’s revelations are Gabe Speier, Justin Topa, and Trevor Gott.
Gott/Speier/Topa Numbers
28 games
28.1 innings
105 Plate appearances
23.8 K%
1.9 BB%
0 HR
.196 AVG
.219 OB
.255 SLG
.211 wOBA
.232 xwOBA
Speier’s .196 xwOBA, which captures quality and quantity of contact allowed, is tenth-best among relievers who’ve faced at least 20 batters. Moreover, his 75% ground ball rate is second-highest in the majors and has undoubtedly helped hold opposing hitters to a .185 SLG in eight appearances.
Similarly, Topa has been superb at generating ground balls (61.1%). But he also boasts an impressive 29% strikeout rate and a top-20 hard-hit rate (22.2%). All told, hitters have an anemic .148 AVG/.258 OBP/.222 SLG against the New Yorker.
The most experienced of the newcomers is Gott. The eight-year veteran has a lower strikeout rate (18.2%) than the others. But he’s walked just one of the 50 hitters he’s faced. A factor to consider, his .263 xwOBA closely resembles what he did with the Brewers last season (.268) when he ranked third among Milwaukee relievers behind only Devin Williams (.223) and Matt Bush (.254).
Obviously, there’s plenty of time for things to go awry. But the early emergence of Speier and Topa and the steady performance of Gott have offset the loss of Andrés Muñoz to the IL and suboptimal results from Diego Castillo.
An arm in decline?
Speaking of Castillo, things aren’t going well for the six-year veteran. Across the board, his numbers are troublesome compared to recent seasons.
Granted, Castillo has appeared in just eight games. But it appears manager Scott Servais is already shying away from using the right-hander in high-leverage spots. Maybe that’s an incorrect perception on my part. But the Mariners were trailing by three-or-more runs when he entered his last two games.
Before the season, I mentioned the whiff rate of Castillo’s slider was one of 14 Mariners-related numbers I’d be watching. Why? It dropped to a career-low 32.6% last year. This season, it’s even worse - 26.5%.
Just a reminder: I’m a dumb blogger, not a pitching expert. But Castillo’s slider whiff rate seems relevant to me. Something else I can’t stop staring at - decreasing pitch velocity compared to the 2022 campaign.
Perhaps this drop in velocity has something to do with the pitch clock. Maybe it’s the unseasonably cold weather we’ve experienced in the Pacific Northwest. And we can’t lose sight of the fact Castillo’s season is a small sample size. His numbers may eventually normalize over time.
Stingy with the long ball
Seattle’s pitching staff has done a nice job of avoiding home runs. Overall, the team has allowed 17 homers to 851 batters, which equates to a 2% home run rate.
Lowest HR%
TBR - 1.5%
ATL - 1.8%
SEA - 2%
LAA - 2.2%
TEX - 2.2%
PIT - 2.3%
NYY - 2.4%
PHI - 2.4%
CLE - 2.5%
CIN - 2.6%
Just four of the 14 pitchers appearing in relief for the Mariners have allowed a home run. Only two have coughed up more than one - Castillo and Paul Sewald with two each.
Having said that, one Seattle pitcher has been hurt by the long ball more than the rest - Chris Flexen. Opponents have hit five bombs against Flexen, which is one less than the rest of the rotation combined.
Defending Chris Flexen
Since taking over for an injured Robbie Ray in game-two of the season, Flexen has experienced less-than-ideal outcomes. Naturally, this has led to a lot of hand-wringing by fans and local media. An understandable sentiment. But I believe the Californian deserves more time to rebound.
First, Flexen has been a durable and versatile arm since coming to Seattle in 2021. It’s also important to remember the Mariners have one of the best starting rotations in baseball despite the six-year veteran’s rough outings. For this reason, I believe it’d be premature to reach into the minor leagues to replace Flexen until the team has a better feel for Ray’s status.
In the meantime, I’ll be rooting for Flexen to get back on track.
Hit the road, Jack!
The Mariners are tied with the Yankees for fewest away games (six). At the other end of the spectrum, the Mets have already played 17 home contests. That’s about to change with Servais’ squad beginning a nine-game road swing.
Considering the team’s history of hitting better away from T-Mobile Park, it’ll be interesting to see whether heading east kick-starts the lineup’s average-ish production numbers to date.
Playing six games at venues in Philadelphia and Toronto that are considered more hitter-friendly than Seattle’s home park should help boost the Mariners’ offense. So should facing a 30th-ranked pitching staff in Oakland next week.
Then again, Seattle pitchers will also be playing in Philadelphia and Toronto.
My Oh My…
Always excellent stuff! Thanks!