14 key numbers for Mariners fans to watch this season
14 key numbers for Mariners fans to watch this season
You can't argue with results. But certain stats can provide us with insight into a player's or team's performance.
Last year, the Seattle Mariners reached the postseason for the first time since 2001. Now, the team views itself as a World Series contender. An understandable sentiment considering the Mariners added several established veterans to a roster that won 90 games in each of the last two years.
Still, as we saw with the 2022 Mariners, even a postseason club can get off to a slow start. With this in mind, I’ve identified stats I’ll be monitoring to gauge how the team is doing once the season gets underway.
The first involves a budding superstar.
Julio Rodríguez - Chase rate
Everybody loves Julio. He’s already the face of the Mariners franchise after just one season in the majors. But in this nerd’s eyes, improved plate discipline is all that’s preventing the Dominican Republic native from being one of baseball’s elite hitters.
Rodríguez’s 33.5% chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone led the Mariners. It was also 18th highest among 128 hitters seeing at least 1,000 pitches outside the zone. League-average was 29.2%. It’s worth noting Julio hit just .170 on chase pitches, barely better than the MLB AVG (.164).
Teoscar Hernández - Home numbers
In 60 career plate appearances at T-Mobile Park, Hernández has 20 hits, including three home runs and seven doubles. If the two-time Silver Slugger continues to thrive at his new home, he’ll receive MVP recognition in 2023.
Cal Raleigh - Home/Away splits
This may surprise some Mariners fans. The guy who hit the most memorable home run in franchise history performed significantly better away from T-Mobile Park.
Raleigh’s big-league career is just getting on track. So, it’s too early to overthink why the Florida State product hit so poorly at the ballpark at the corner of Edgar & Dave. Still, better home production from Raleigh would play a big role in lengthening the lineup.
AJ Pollock - Success vs RHP
Since the beginning of 2018, the right-handed hitting Pollock has a .283 AVG/.331 OBP/.560 SLG in 595 plate confrontations with southpaws. It’s one reason the Mariners signed the veteran to platoon with Jarred Kelenic in left field.
Still, Pollock’s productivity versus right-handers could be a difference-maker for Seattle. Over the last five seasons, the Notre Dame alum has a .754 OPS against righties. That’s 37 points better than what the average right-handed hitter produced.
Yes, Pollock’s worst season against right-handers was 2022 and he is now 35-years-old. But by simply duplicating the average of his offensive numbers since 2018, the Connecticut native would serve as another viable weapon against righties.
J.P. Crawford - Defensive metrics
With a career .358 SLG, it’s unlikely Crawford delivers power numbers similar to what higher-profile shortstops are producing. But that’s okay as long as the 16th overall pick of the 2013 draft reaches base at an above-average rate and delivers strong defense.
Crawford’s .339 OBP over the last two seasons suggests getting on base shouldn’t be a concern. On the other hand, the 28-year-old’s defense is something worth watching as the 2023 campaign unfolds.
Whether you use outs above average (OAA) or defensive runs saved (DRS), the Mariners’ starting shortstop didn’t rate well in 2022. Remember, zero is always average with both metrics.
It’s been suggested Crawford played through several nagging injuries last season. It’s not surprising a player of his ilk would selflessly stay on the field to support his team. But playing hurt would help explain why the Lakewood High School product’s defensive wizardry took an enormous hit last year.
Assuming the soggy shoulder and foot injury he’s dealt with in Spring Training don’t become chronic issues, it’s reasonable to expect Crawford’s defense rebounds this upcoming season.
Kolten Wong - Games played
Since the Mariners acquired him in December, we’ve talked quite a bit about Wong from an offensive and defensive perspective. But availability may be the true key to his debut campaign in the Emerald City.
Dating back to 2015, Wong has played in more than 140 games just twice. Last season, the Hawaiian appeared in 134 contests with the Milwaukee Brewers.
Wong Games Played
2015 – 150
2016 – 121
2017 – 108
2018 – 127
2019 – 148
2020 – 53
2021 – 116
2022 – 134
Most of the injuries slowing Wong through the years have been muscular in nature. Last year, a calf injury kept him out of action for approximately 20 days. In 2021, a calf strain cost the 32-year-old about 18 days. A strained oblique also led to a pair of IL stints.
If Wong appears in at least as many games as last year, he has an excellent chance of being a valuable contributor in the field and at the plate. But an IL stint (or two) would place a strain on a bench that doesn’t look so deep as Opening Day approaches.
Lineup - Hard-hit rate
Last year, Seattle’s 36.7% hard-hit rate ranked 23rd. The only postseason club behind Seattle was the last-place Cleveland Guardians (33.1%). Just a reminder, hard-hit balls have an exit velocity of 95-plus MPH and typically create significantly more offense than any other kind of batted ball.
Hard-hit balls: .488 AVG / .954 SLG
Everything else: .219 AVG / .254 SLG
That said, multiple roster changes should improve the team’s hard-hit rate. Gone are Adam Frazier, Abraham Toro, Jesse Winker, and Mitch Haniger with the louder bats of Hernández, Wong, and Pollock being added to the mix.
Logan Gilbert - Hard-hit rate
Gilbert’s conventional numbers from last season look great. A 13-6 record in 32 starts and 185.2 innings pitched with a 3.20 ERA. But I have concerns.
As a rookie in 2021, Gilbert had a 25.5% strikeout rate. However, he dropped three points to a league-average 22.5% last year. Furthermore, only four pitchers had a higher hard-hit rate than the right-hander’s.
Highest hard-hit rate
Yusei Kikuchi - 47.9
Daniel Lynch - 47.7
Germán Márquez - 47.2
Roansy Contreras - 45.9
Logan Gilbert - 45.6
Nick Pivetta - 45.6
Jonathan Heasley - 45.3
Nathan Eovaldi - 45.2
Patrick Corbin - 44.9
Kris Bubic - 44.9
MLB average hard-hit rate = 38.4%
Am I down on Gilbert? No, quite the opposite. But surrendering loud contact less often is paramount to the 25-year-old taking the next step in his evolution. Based on what we know about Gilbert, he’s up to the challenge.
On that note, Tyler Kepner of the New York Times recently suggested the split-finger fastball Gilbert added to his repertoire could be exactly what’s needed to mitigate the hard contact he’s been allowing. In fact, Kepner labeled the Stetson product as a dark horse candidate for the 2023 AL Cy Young Award.
Assuming good health, there’s no doubt in my mind a noticeable drop in hard contact leads to Gilbert’s name appearing on Cy Young ballots in 2023 and beyond.
Andrés Muñoz & Matt Brash - Walk rates
Allowing free passes in 2022 wasn’t an issue for Muñoz, who enjoyed a breakout campaign. But the Mexican did struggle with high walk rates before joining the Mariners organization.
Muñoz’s BB% as a professional
Rookie (16.7%)
Low A (14.8%)
A (18.2%)
AA (14.8%)
AAA (8.9%)
Padres (11.3%)
Mariners (6.7%)
MLB walk rate for RP’s in 2022 = 9.1%
If Muñoz continues his mastery of the strike zone, he will be the main attraction in Seattle’s bullpen this year and well into the future.
Now, think about what Brash might evolve into with a lower walk rate. Much like Muñoz, free passes and command issues have been Brash’s Achilles Heel during his young career.
Brash’s BB% as a professional
A+ (13.7%)
AA (10.4%)
AAA (13.1%)
MLB (14.9%)
Brash’s stuff is undeniably dynamic. But harnessing his weapons would propel the Canadian towards sustainable success as a high-leverage reliever. I believe he can do just that.
We know Spring Training numbers don’t mean much. But this year, Brash has allowed two walks in 9.1 frames. Plus, he didn’t surrender a free pass in one inning of work during the WBC.
Yes, it’s a small sample mostly based on exhibition game results. But Brash’s improved command and control is an encouraging sign heading into the regular season.
Diego Castillo - Whiff rate
Castillo held opponents to an impressive .299 SLG last season. But his strikeout rate dropped nearly 10 points to 23.9% last year. This is a bit alarming and aligns with a steep decline in the number of swings and misses (whiffs) he lured hitters into.
Castillo’s Whiff Rate by Season
2018 - 31.4%
2019 - 32.4%
2021 - 32.8%
2022 - 26.5%
A closer look reveals Castillo didn’t induce as many whiffs with his slider in 2022 as he had in seasons past. Last year, 63.3% of the right-hander’s pitches thrown were sliders. This seems like a big deal.
Castillo’s Whiff Rate with Slider
2018 - 44.9%
2019 - 44%
2021 - 40.1%
2022 - 32.6%
I’m nothing close to being a pitching expert. But creating more swings and misses with the slider likely thrusts Castillo into a more prominent bullpen role this year. Otherwise, yikes!
Marco Gonzales - AVG on ground balls
Gonzales had a 42.9% ground ball rate last season, which was nearly nine points higher than 2021 and his highest since his first full season with Seattle in 2018. But the former Gonzaga Bulldog didn’t enjoy the positive results pitchers typically experience with grounders.
The league hit .241 off ground balls last season. Yet, opponents had a .280 AVG against Gonzales. It’s important to note only 10 pitchers allowed more grounders in 2022 than he did (267). Therefore, this lack of success was particularly crucial to the eight-year veteran and his team.
To be clear, Gonzales wasn’t the only Mariner to generate a lot of ground balls and have a high opponent’s AVG. But he’s the only one in the group who pitches to contact. The others had above-average strikeout rates.
Generating more ground balls should’ve worked to Gonzales’ benefit last year, but it didn’t. Perhaps Crawford’s defensive regression played a role in the situation. It would seem logical.
Regardless of the root cause, how Marco and other Seattle pitchers fare on grounders this season may open a window into how Crawford and Wong are handling middle-infield duties. It’ll also shed light on how the Mariners’ defense is adjusting to the newly-implemented defensive shift restrictions.
Robbie Ray - Fastball velocity
Adam Jude of the Seattle Times recently noted Ray’s four-seam fastball has averaged 95.3-MPH this spring, which is nearly 3-MPH faster than last Spring Training. This is significant considering the southpaw’s four-seamer velo last year (93.4-MPH) was at its lowest point since 2019 when it was 92.4 MPH.
I’m not suggesting velocity is all that matters to Ray’s success. But it’s worth noting the Brentwood, Tennessee native’s four-seamer cracked the 96-MPH threshold most often in 2021, the year he won the AL Cy Young Award.
More gas combined with a new split-finger fastball would make Ray an even more formidable weapon for the Mariners this year.
Team - W-L record in May
Finally, something obscure and possibly meaningless. The Mariners have enjoyed two consecutive 90-win campaigns. But the team has posted a losing record in May of each year. It’s the only month in either season Seattle was below the .500 mark.
Wouldn’t it be nice if the Mariners had a winning record every month this year?
Including October?
I think so.
My Oh My…