Mariners Preview: Offense

Seattle's lineup improved greatly in 2025. Does the trend continue this year?

Ryan Sun - AP Images

It’s time to focus on the upcoming Mariners season beginning with an offense that carried them to the ALCS. First, let’s consider their 2025 production numbers.

Seattle ranked ninth in runs scored - its highest position since 2016. The team’s 238 home runs were fifth most in franchise history. Strikeouts dropping 3.5-percent from a club record set in 2024 was another encouraging development.

We should note the Mariners’ offensive surge last September significantly raised their overall numbers. Through August, the team’s .728 OPS was 11th best. But a second-place ranking in the final month spurred a 12-point climb for the season.

Notable departures: Eugenio Suárez (3B), Jorge Polanco (2B/DH), Ben Williamson (3B), Harry Ford (C), Cade Marlowe (OF), Austin Shenton (OF), Samad Taylor (IF)

Looking forward

The projected Opening Day lineup has one new face, Brendan Donovan, rumored to be a Mariners trade target since the introduction of the iPhone. Donovan, an ideal addition, is slated to play third base. He may move around the field as the year unfolds.

Key Position Players (and 2025 OPS+)

1B - Josh Naylor (128)
2B - Cole Young (78)
SS - J.P. Crawford (111)
3B - Brendan Donovan (119)+
LF - Randy Arozarena (119)
CF - Julio Rodríguez (128)
RF - Luke Raley (85) / Víctor Robles (77)
C - Cal Raleigh (169)
DH - Dominic Canzone (142) / Rob Refsnyder (131)+

+ Newcomer

First baseman Josh Naylor returns after re-upping in November. Acquired last July, Naylor was a catalyst behind the late-season push with a top-5 AVG in September.

This isn’t necessarily a concern, but something I want to highlight. As a Mariner, Naylor had a 1.015 OPS at T-Mobile Park, the most extreme pitchers park in MLB. Not only did his home OPS pace the team, it was second highest in any season by a hitter with 100 plate appearances at the venue.

Am I suggesting Naylor craters? No. But it’s sensible to expect his production numbers to normalize - particularly at T-Mobile Park. That’s not a bad thing whatsoever. The Canadian has a 124 OPS+ since 2022, which works in any ballpark.

On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) is a normalized version of OPS that adjusts for park and league conditions. OPS+ is scaled so 100 is always league-average. As a result, an OPS+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 OPS+ would be 20-percent below average.

Second baseman Cole Young had a strong 50-game stretch with a .272 AVG and .366 OBP. Unfortunately, the 22-year-old fell off a cliff in his next 20 contests, which led to reduced playing time and omission from the active postseason rosters.

Shortstop J.P. Crawford was exceptional at reaching base last season. Crawford’s .352 OBP was 33rd best among 145 qualified hitters - essentially equal to Donovan and Naylor (.353). The 31-year-old is currently sidelined with a shoulder issue in Arizona.

In his first full season as Seattle’s left fielder, Randy Arozarena hit 32 doubles and 27 home runs with 31 swiped bags. He also got plunked by a pitch an MLB-leading 27 times making the 31-year-old the only player in MLB history with 25 doubles, 25 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and 25 hit-by-pitches in the same year.

There are several noteworthy trends regarding Arozarena. A 26.9 strikeout rate in 2025 was his highest for any full season, while the two-time All-Star’s walk rate was at its lowest since 2022. Also, Arozarena’s sprint speed has incrementally decreased over the last four years.

Julio Rodríguez is Seattle’s best all-round player and baseball’s top center fielder. Rodríguez didn’t lead the team in any slash category. But his ideal blend of power and speed can help the Mariners win in multiple ways. Last year, the 25-year-old had 31 doubles, 32 home runs, and 30 stolen bases.

The season likely begins with a right field platoon of left-handed hitting Luke Raley and Víctor Robles. Raley has a career .786 OPS against right-handers. Robles’ righty bat has delivered a .341 OBP versus southpaws since 2021.

Still, this blogger remains uncertain of Robles’ offensive value. We remember him being Seattle’s top hitter for the final four months of 2024. But can a batter with an 89 OPS+ in 2,210 plate appearances repeat that success or even be league-average?

While Raley has a 111 OPS+ in 1,224 plate appearances, he’s dealt with availability challenges. Three IL stints in three years, plus injuries slowed his minor league progression. Similarly, Robles has been on the IL five times since 2021.

Rob Refsnyder and Dominic Canzone likely share designated hitter duties and spend time in the outfield, too. The right-handed hitting Refsnyder crushed left-handed offerings last year with a .302 AVG and .560 SLG.

Similarly, Canzone produced a .879 OPS against righty pitching. It’s also possible the left-handed hitter is capable of handling southpaws. In an admittedly small sample of 68 plate appearances, Canzone had a .276 AVG and .368 OBP versus lefty hurlers.

Catcher Cal Raleigh set career bests in games played, stolen bases, doubles, home runs, AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS+. This tremendous increase in production led to his first Silver Slugger and a runner-up finish in AL MVP voting.

Still, Raleigh’s lofty numbers likely regress to some degree. I’m not saying the 29-year-old freefalls. But history suggests he may never reach 60 home runs again. For me, Raleigh repeating his second-half production is a realistic expectation.

A reserve catcher hasn’t been named. Free agent Andrew Knizner has a career 67 OPS+ in 975 big-league plate appearances. Last year’s backup, Mitch Garver, is back on a minor-league deal after having a subpar 86 OPS+, although he was average-ish against lefties with a .719 OPS. Jhonny Pereda has 32 MLB starts with one minor-league option remaining, which matters.

Notable Reserves (and 2025 OPS+)

C - Andrew Knizner (77)
INF - Leo Rivas (113)
INF - Ryan Bliss (INJ)
UTL - Miles Mastrobuoni (83)
C - Jhonny Pereda (MiLB)
OF - Rhylan Thomas (MiLB)
C - Mitch Garver (86)+
IF - Colt Emerson (MiLB)+

+ Not on 40-man roster

The on-base ability and positional versatility of Leo Rivas make him an ideal bench contributor. Rivas has a career .364 OBP during a small sample of 91 MLB games. The switch-hitter made 20 starts at second base in 2025. He also started at shortstop three times and right field once. During Cactus League play, Rivas has mostly played shortstop. Perhaps a contingency in case Crawford’s shoulder issue lingers.

Ryan Bliss missed most of 2025 with a torn bicep. Whether he makes the Opening Day roster likely hinges on his health, the status of players ahead of him on the depth chart, and the readiness of Seattle’s top prospect, Colt Emerson. Barring unforeseen circumstances, Emerson seems destined to begin 2026 in the minors. Still, MLB Pipeline’s number-nine prospect likely debuts with Seattle this year.

Utility-man Miles Mastrobuoni may begin the season on the IL due to a calf injury suffered during the World Baseball Classic. Mastrobuoni has no minor-league options remaining. Therefore, he would have to clear waivers before being sent to Class-AAA Tacoma.

Camp sensation Brennen Davis likely begins the season at AAA. Health setbacks have limited the 15th best prospect in 2022 to fewer than 75 games each year since 2021.

Outlook

The Mariners’ offense can be good. But there are a few areas of risk.

Young is unproven. Just like the acclaimed Emerson, who’s just another untested minor-leaguer until he demonstrates otherwise. I’m hoping both kids break out big time. But if they struggle, Seattle is likely looking for infield help at the deadline.

And then there’s Robles and Raley, who combined to hit .218 and slug .318 last year. Again, I want to see both of them succeed. But their histories mean right field is a position worth monitoring early in the season.

Maybe this is overthinking (or underthinking). How are the 35 home runs of Eugenio Suárez and Jorge Polanco replaced? And let’s not forget Raleigh’s probable drop-off.

A full season of Naylor combined with potential growth by Rodríguez, Canzone, and perhaps even Raley may offset the loss of home runs to some extent. So could Refsnyder coming aboard. Then again, Rodríguez and Naylor are the only full-timers.

Am I screaming "the sky is falling?"

No.

That said, expectations for the Mariners heading into 2026 may be a bit higher than they should be thanks to the euphoria generated by the team reaching the ALCS.

That said, the Mariners’ projected Opening Day roster has eight players who were at least 10-percent better than the average hitter in 2025. This represents the foundation of a long, seemingly slump-proof lineup capable of propelling a club to the World Series.

Wouldn’t that be fun?

My Oh My…