Signing Josh Naylor
The Mariners wants to retain Naylor. But they may face stiff competition for his services.
When Mariners President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto was asked about pending free agent Josh Naylor, Dipoto stated keeping Naylor was “obviously” a priority for his club. That sentiment won’t receive any blowback from this fan base.
After the Mariners acquired Naylor from Arizona on July 24, he quickly became popular with the locals thanks to his intensity, baseball acumen, and superb performance at the plate and in the field. Even better, the 28-year-old has publicly expressed his fondness for Seattle fans.
“I’ve gotten so many compliments from friends who have watched me play, or ex-teammates I’ve played with or even just opponents who I’m playing against, like, how awesome it is in Seattle, and how cool the fan base is and how they just ride-or-die Seattle.” - Josh Naylor to Adam Jude (Seattle Times)
Emotionally speaking, re-signing Naylor is a no-brainer. That said, I prefer to see where the numbers take me before forming an opinion. With this in mind, let’s discuss selling points and potential concerns regarding the 12th overall pick of the 2015 draft. We also should consider what other options Naylor could potentially have once free agency commences five days after the end of the World Series.
Selling points: Naylor is an above average run producer. His combined 128 wRC+ with Arizona and Seattle ranked 31st among 145 qualified hitters this season.
Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) quantifies how a hitter’s total offensive value compares with the league average after adjusting for park effects. League-average is always 100. Therefore, a wRC+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 wRC+ would be 20-percent below average.
Conventional numbers corroborate Naylor’s high wRC+ ranking. His .295 AVG tied for 10th best with Freddie Freeman, while the .353 OBP he generated ranked 30th. Furthermore, the left-handed hitter’s 13.7-percent strikeout rate tied for 16th lowest with Cody Bellinger.
An unexpected dominance Naylor displayed in 2025 was thievery on the base paths. Despite having a 24 feet-per-second sprint speed that ranked 266th of 270 players, the one-time All-Star’s 30 stolen bases tied for 19th-best in baseball with teammate Julio Rodríguez and Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson.
Sprint Speed is a Statcast product that measures how many feet-per-second a player runs in his fastest one-second window. The MLB average is 27 feet-per-second.
When we focus on Naylor’s performance as a Mariner, the numbers continue to impress. From his first game with Seattle on July 25 until the end of the regular season, the Canadian produced a .299 AVG, .341 OBP, .490 SLG with a 137 wRC+. He also led his new club with 19 stolen bases.
What really stood out to me about Naylor’s short time with the Mariners was his superb performance at T-Mobile Park. In 100 home plate appearances, he led his new teammates with a .360 AVG, .408 OBP, .607 SLG, 12 doubles, and five home runs.
Considering Seattle’s home field is considered the most extreme pitchers park in MLB, finding an established hitter capable of producing there is a huge get. Not only that, Naylor told Wyman and Bob of Seattle Sports Radio that he likes hitting there.
“I think it’s a hitter’s park more than a pitcher’s park, to be honest. I think it’s easy to hit here.” - Josh Naylor, discussing T-Mobile Park
Speaking of the ballpark, anyone who’s attended a Mariners home game early in the season knows exactly how frigid it can get there. Particularly, at night. I’m not going to suggest Naylor is impervious to the cold because he’s from the Great White North. But in 145 plate appearances when the game start temperature was 50 degrees-or-lower, he boasts a respectable .267 AVG, .333 OBP, and .405 SLG.
From a defensive perspective, the metrics suggest Naylor also provided value with his glove. His two OAA for the season tied for eight best among 40 qualified first baseman. But the seven-year veteran displayed even better range with five OAA during his two months as a Mariner. Perhaps being around Seattle’s infield guru, Perry Hill, on a daily basis helped.
Outs Above Average (OAA) is a range-based metric that quantifies how many outs a defender has saved compared to the average player. League-average is always ZERO. Source: Baseball Savant
Naylor also delivered in the postseason for the Mariners. During the playoffs, he led the team in hits (16), AVG (.340), and OBP (.392). Only Cal Raleigh bested Naylor’s four home runs and .574 SLG.
Potential concerns: Naylor was very good at home for the Mariners. But he wasn’t nearly as successful on the road after joining the team.
Naylor’s Home/Away Splits with SEA
Home: 100 PA, .360 AVG, .408 OBP, .607 SLG
Away: 110 PA, .248 AVG, .282 OBP, .390 SLG
It’s also important to note that Naylor’s lefty bat has been much more productive against right-handed throwers (.809 OPS) than southpaws (.694 OPS) during 2,863 career plate appearances.
To be clear, I’m not suggesting Naylor is horrible against left-handers. But there has been a noticeable platoon split during his time in the majors. That said, he was much more effective versus lefty hurlers in 2025.
Naylor vs LHP in 2025
ARI: 128 PA, .258 AVG, .297 OBP, .358 SLG
SEA: 64 PA, .344 AVG, .375 OBP, .590 SLG
Dating back to 2022, Naylor has averaged just 122 games annually. Granted, he played in 147 contests in 2025 and 152 last year. But the left-handed thrower did miss a pair of games with left shoulder discomfort in August and was unavailable for two contests in June after injuring his right shoulder. Will availability be a concern for potential suitors of Naylor?
Teams and their respective medical staffs are better qualified than me to determine whether health is an issue or a nothing-burger with Naylor.
This nerd isn’t going to dispute the comments of an MLB hitter regarding his abilities or comfort level. But it’s worth noting that, despite saying he’s always liked hitting at T-Mobile Park, Naylor had a .204 AVG, .207 OBP, and .370 SLG in 58 appearances at the venue as a member of the Guardians.
Sure, that’s a small sample size to focus on. But the same could be said about the 100 home plate appearances Naylor had with Seattle this year.
The competition: Even though Mariners fans are insisting that the team signs Naylor immediately, it’s important to recognize that the player has a collectively bargained right to test the free agent market to gauge his maximum value. After all, depending on the length of Naylor’s next deal, this year may be his only shot at a long-term contract.
With this in mind, I identified several clubs that may be shopping in the first base aisle this offseason. Please note that this list isn’t all-inclusive.
Mets: Whether New York gets involved in a potential Josh Naylor sweepstakes likely depends on their current first baseman, Pete Alonso. The five-time All-Star will be a free agent for a second consecutive season. Last year, Alonso and agent Scott Boras didn’t snag the long-term contract they were seeking. So, the 30-year-old accepted a shorter deal to return to the only club he’s played for. Do player and team end up having another reunion? Or, do the Mets look for a younger and less expensive alternative to the “Polar Bear?”
Yankees: In the Bronx, 37-year-old Paul Goldschmidt played the most games at first base for the Bombers in 2025. But assuming the team prefers getting younger at the position, it’s possible Naylor would be an enticing target. His left-handed swing might mesh well with the short right field wall of Yankee Stadium. Then again, the team could go with 27-year-old Ben Rice instead.
Padres: The pending free agency of Luis Arráez provides the Padres with an opportunity to turn the page at first base. Perhaps Naylor is an option. There is already a built-in familiarity between player and organization. Naylor made his MLB debut with San Diego in 2019.
Rangers: Jake Burger, former Mariner Rowdy Tellez, Ezequiel Duran, and utility-man Josh Smith rack made at least 25 appearances at first base last year. Finding a more permanent, long-term solution would make sense. Perhaps Texas prefers to stick with Burger, who had three IL stints during a down year. On the other hand, Naylor would be a clear-cut upgrade.
Nationals: This year, the 89 wRC+ of Washington first basemen ranked 24th in baseball. The rebuilding organization doesn’t have someone knocking at the door in the minors. Moreover, Naylor’s intensity and baseball knowledge may make him an intriguing candidate to serve as a mentor for the stable of young and promising players on the Nationals’ roster.
Red Sox: A year ago, Mariners fans were clamoring for their team to acquire Boston’s young first baseman, Triston Casas. That trade never transpired and the 25-year-old subsequently suffered a season-ending knee injury in early May. As a result, former Mariner Abraham Toro made a club-leading 57 starts at the position. Considering Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow wouldn’t commit to Casas as the team’s 2026 first baseman, could the Sawx make a run at Naylor?
Thoughts: Even though potential concerns exist with Naylor, this nerd views him as an ideal long-term fit with the Mariners.
Naylor is still in his prime, has been a top-shelf hitter over an extended period, and appears capable of being productive at T-Mobile Park. That’s exactly the kind of performer this club needs to retain.
Whether the Mariners can actually get a deal done with Naylor remains unclear. First, there will be deep-pocketed rivals to contend with. Compounding matters, ownership has a reputation for making public commitments to provide the front office with the necessary resources to improve the roster before quietly reversing course.
Signing Josh Naylor would be a great first step towards transforming that reputation.
My Oh My…
Great article! The front office should sign Naylor as proof they are serious about a deep playoff run next season. Letting him get away will add insult to injury, to say the least. LET’S DO THIS!
With which of the competing teams does JN have the best chance of getting a ring? JN is both super smart and likely as ambitious as any other MLB player.