What should we expect from Víctor Robles in 2025?
Víctor Robles was a stud for the Mariners this year. Should we expect more of the same from Robles in 2025 or is regression looming over the horizon?
When the Mariners acquired Víctor Robles in June, the move was met with cynicism from the fan base. An understandable sentiment considering the once highly-touted prospect had been an ineffective run producer in eight seasons as a National. Yet, by season’s end, Robles was arguably Seattle’s best hitter.
Now, as winter reaches its darkest point, we’re left to wonder whether Robles can repeat this year’s success. What should we expect from him in 2025?
Obviously, future performance can’t be accurately predicted. But contrasting Robles’ accomplishments with the Mariners to his time as a National may give us a better sense of what to expect from the 27-year-old.
He’ll probably bunt a lot
Dating back to his first full season in 2019, Robles leads MLB with 106 bunt attempts and 36 bunt hits. With Seattle, he continued to employ a bunt-heavy strategy.
Robles bunted 18 times, which accounted for 38-percent of his new club’s 49 attempts. From a results perspective, he amassed seven hits after joining the Mariners on June 5. Only Jake McCarthy of the Diamondbacks (nine bunt hits) had more than Robles during this timeframe.
The glove should work in a corner
Robles has primarily been a center fielder since making his big-league debut as a 20-year-old in 2018. With the Mariners, he made 26 center field starts when Julio Rodríguez was sidelined with an injury. The native of the Dominican Republic also appeared in 28 contests as a right fielder and another 20 in left field.
With Rodríguez now healthy, Robles likely slides to a corner outfield spot on a full-time basis. Advanced defensive metrics suggest that this may be the best possible outcome for the Mariners.
As a rookie, Robles delivered elite-level center field defense with an MLB-leading 23 OAA. But since 2019, Robles’ OAA totals haven’t been as impressive, although he did continue to be above-average until the last two seasons.
Robles Center Field OAA
2019 (23)
2020 (1)
2021 (2)
2022 (6)
2023 (-3)
2024 (-2)
Outs Above Average (OAA) is a range-based metric of skill that shows how many outs a player has saved. League-average is always ZERO. Source: Baseball Savant
Having said that, Robles was a slightly better-than-average right fielder with 2 OAA accrued this year. Furthermore, his arm strength was tenth-best among 81 right fielders making 50-plus throws.
He stole a lot of bases, but…
As a Mariner, Robles was incredibly successful at stealing bases. In 31 attempts, he was caught just once. Not only that, newly-released Statcast metrics suggest the 2019 World Series champion was one of baseball’s most valuable base thieves. Only Elly De La Cruz (40), Shohei Ohtani (34), and Brice Turang (31) accrued more Net Bases Gained than Robles did this year (26).
Net Bases Gained quantifies a base stealer’s success by crediting a runner for advancing via stolen bases and balks, while penalizing him for being caught stealing or picked off. Zero is average.
What made Robles particularly valuable was his ideal blend of aggressiveness and efficiency. To this point, David Adler of MLB recently cited Robles’ success in this regard.
I know what some of you are thinking about. The one occasion Robles was caught stealing as a Mariner. The time he attempted to steal home with the bases loaded, two out and Justin Turner standing at the plate with a 3-0 count. Not a pretty sight. For those of you who feel compelled to relive bad memories, here’s a link to the video of the ill-fated event narrated by an incredulous Yankees announcing crew.
Still, Robles’ overall body of work on the base paths with Seattle was impressive and shouldn’t be overshadowed by a momentary lapse in judgement. But the fact he had more Net Bases Gained in 77 games as a Mariner than in 530 contests with the Nats is a bit unsettling for me. Will Robles be as effective at swiping bags in the future as he was in 2024?
The other noteworthy item from the preceding table is Robles’ stolen base attempt rate. This year, it was noticeably higher than what he had previously produced during his career. Will this sudden surge in aggressiveness continue moving forward?
A change for the better
Two months after Robles’ debut with the Mariners, Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reported on significant mechanical changes made by Robles at the suggestion of then-hitting coach Jarret DeHart. The results suggest the adjustments paid off.
“I’ve always been a quick-hips type of guy and ‘JD’ made some type of balance in between and helped me with a scissor swing a little bit, so I can have more direction to the ball. I just got close to him and told him that I’m here to do whatever I thought was going to help me out.” - Victor Robles
Ironically, DeHart would be fired along with manager Scott Servais less than a month later.
Home field success
After joining his new team, Robles was the most productive Mariner at T-Mobile Park. That’s a noteworthy achievement considering Statcast views it as one of baseball’s least-friendly venues for hitters.
Highest Home OPS by M’s (June 5 - Sept 29)
Victor Robles (.982)
Luke Raley (.903)
Justin Turner (.840)
Randy Arozarena (.811)
Mitch Haniger (.728)
Cal Raleigh (.723)
Julio Rodríguez (.667)
Mitch Garver (.640)
Josh Rojas (.582)
Jorge Polanco (.558)
Dylan Moore (.508)
J.P. Crawford (.398)
MLB average OPS was .711
I recommend exercising caution when forming opinions with the numbers illustrated above. Rodríguez didn’t have a good 2024 at T-Mobile Park. But during his first two big-league campaigns, he produced an .830 OPS in Seattle. Furthermore, Cal Raleigh was much better at home this year compared to previous seasons. And in Robles’ case, he has just 115 home plate appearances with Seattle.
Loud, quality contact may be rare
As a Mariner, Robles produced 31.6-percent hard-hit and 6.8-percent barrel rates - both career highs. But from 2019 through 2023, he had a 24.6-percent hard-hit rate, which was about 12-percent lower than this year’s MLB average. Only six of 302 hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances had a lower hard-hit rate.
Similarly, Robles’ 3.4-percent barrel rate ranked 279 of 302 and was significantly below the 7.7-percent rate the average hitter produced during this five-year window. With this in mind, it’s reasonable to wonder what kind of pop his bat will deliver next season.
Granted, Robles may never profile as a big bopper. But he did lead the Mariners with a .467 SLG. And once again, this was a career-high for any season with at least 100 plate appearances. The only other time the Dominican posted a SLG above the .400-mark was 2019.
Robles’ SLG (100 PA minimum)
2019 (.419)
2020 (.315)
2021 (.295)
2022 (.311)
2023 (.364)
2024 (.433)
Strikeouts may increase
Once in Seattle, Robles had a better-than-average 16.8-percent strikeout rate. In fact, he led the Mariners with 150-plus plate appearances with Turner (18.4-percent) being second-best. But unlike Turner, Robles doesn’t boast an extended history of avoiding strikeouts.
Robles’ Strikeout Rates In Seasons with 150+ PA’s
2019 (22.8%)
2020 (28%)
2021 (23.2%)
2022 (25.6%)
2024 (18%)
It's worth noting Robles did have a 14.3-percent strikeout rate during 126 plate appearances spanning 36 games in 2023. But that’s a very small sample.
Availability concerns?
Naturally, a player with a full-throttle mentality like Robles will be more susceptible to bumps and bruises. We saw this firsthand during his short time with the Mariners as he dealt with hip, elbow, and finger issues. That said, my concern rests with Robles spending considerable time on the IL during the last two seasons.
Robles’ IL Time (Days Lost)
2021 (11 days) - Ankle sprain
2023 (143 days) - Back spasms
2024 (33 days) – Hamstring
Source: Baseball Prospectus
Something else to consider. The most games Robles has ever played in a season is 155 as a freshman in 2019. Over the last four seasons, he’s averaged 92 games-per-year. With the exception of being optioned to Class-AAA Rochester at the end of August 2021, the majority of his missed time has primarily been health-related.
Am I suggesting Robles is injury-prone? Not at all. But his style of play may lead to more IL time, which is something we should at least consider when discussing future expectations.
Looking forward
Robles is an extremely fun player to watch, who provided a boost of energy at exactly the right time for the Mariners. But he only played in 77 games and made 262 plate appearances with Seattle. For this reason, I’m taking a wait-and-see approach with a player who has a long-standing reputation of being a below-average hitter.
Sure, it’s possible Robles is the classic “change of scenery” guy, who transforms into a much better performer in new surroundings. Perhaps DeHart’s input spurred a career renaissance. Then again, it’s also possible the veteran regresses to his career norms next season. Hence, my cautious approach.
Best-case scenario, Robles becomes a fixture at the top of the Mariners’ lineup. This would be a good thing considering Seattle lead-off hitters not named Victor Robles produced a .320 OBP last year, which was seven points below the MLB average. Add in Robles’ time in the top spot and the team’s OBP jumps to .329. That’s what impact looks like.
But even if Robles falls off a cliff and reverts to his former self, he could still provide value to the Mariners with his glove and legs. Whether this would be enough for a team needing to field a more productive lineup than last year’s edition likely hinges on additions made by the front office between now and Opening Day.
And that’s certainly gone swimmingly thus far.
My Oh My…