Three young third basemen I like for the Mariners
Perhaps Seattle should consider a young, controllable player to improve at third base.
We recently discussed ideas to help the Mariners at second base. But the team could use an upgrade at third base, too. This year, the combined OBP and SLG of Seattle third basemen was in the bottom-third of MLB. The position group also ranked 27th in strikeouts.
It’s true that Josh Rojas was a superb defender worthy of Gold Glove consideration. But Rojas produced a disappointing .225 AVG/.304 OBP/.336 SLG. Can a team like the Mariners afford to live with this level of suboptimal offensive production in order to receive strong defense at third base?
For me, the answer is no.
With this in mind, the following are three trade candidates I like for the Mariners. Unlike Alex Bregman, who’s pictured above, each is relatively young and inexperienced. All were impressive this year.
Mark Vientos - Mets
Selling points: Vientos’ wRC+ was 23rd-best among 169 hitters with 450 plate appearances this year. Furthermore, the 24-year-old’s SLG tied for 13th with Boston’s Rafael Devers.
Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) quantifies how a hitter’s total offensive value compares with the league average after adjusting for park effects. League-average is always 100. Therefore, a wRC+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 wRC+ would be 20-percent below average.
From a nerd perspective, there’s a lot of thunder in Vientos’ bat. His 14.1-percent barrel rate was 22nd-highest within our group of 169. The only Mariner better than the right-handed hitting Met was Cal Raleigh (15.4-percent).
The following stat surprised me. Vientos’ home run percentage this year placed him among some of the elite power bats in baseball.
Highest HR% in 2024*
Aaron Judge 8.2%
Shohei Ohtani 7.4%
Anthony Santander 6.6%
Tyler O'Neill 6.6%
Brent Rooker 6.4%
Ketel Marte 6.2%
Mark Vientos 5.9%
Giancarlo Stanton 5.9%
Juan Soto 5.8%
José Ramírez 5.7%
Marcell Ozuna 5.7%
* 400 PA minimum
Primarily a third baseman, Vientos has 75 professional starts at first base, including nine as a big-leaguer. Therefore, potential for positional flexibility exists.
Potential concerns: Although Vientos’ bat exploded on the scene, his glove didn’t rate well according to Statcast. His minus-5 FRV tied for 25th-worst with Devers among 29 players with 500 innings at the hot corner.
Fielding Run Value (FRV) combines all of Statcast’s individual defensive metrics into one number to assess a fielder’s performance. Range (Outs Above Average) and throwing are used for fielders. Blocking, framing, and throwing are considered when assessing catchers. Zero FRV is average.
Vientos’ 29.7-percent strikeout rate was 11th-highest among our 169 hitters. For context, the Mariners had six players who struck out about as frequently as the Norwalk, Connecticut native did: Mitch Garver (30.9-percent), Mitch Haniger (29.8), Luke Raley (29.7), Jorge Polanco (29.2), Cal Raleigh (28), and Dylan Moore (27.9).
Jordan Westburg - Orioles
Selling points: In his first full season, the right-handed hitting Westburg was a 2024 All-Star and a Silver Slugger finalist as a utility player.
Westburg also makes loud, quality contact. The only Mariners with a better hard-hit rate than his (46.1-percent) were Julio Rodríguez (48.4) and Cal Raleigh (48.1). As for barrel rate, only Raleigh (15.8-percent) was ahead of Westburg (11.8).
In his brief career, Westburg has a near-even split in time spent at second base and third base. The Mississippi State alum has logged 705.2 innings at second base and 707.1 frames at the hot corner.
Westburg had an FRV of three - eighth-best among 29 fielders with 500 innings at third base. Rojas was fourth with five FRV. Using OAA, Westburg ranked sixth and was just a spot behind Rojas.
Outs Above Average (OAA) is a range-based metric that shows how many outs a player has saved.
Among 290 players with 100 competitive runs in 2024, Westburg’s 29 ft/sec sprint speed was 26th-fastest. Not only that, he was the quickest third baseman.
Potential concerns: Westburg had extreme home and away splits. The 25-year-old’s bat thrived at Camden Yards. But it wasn’t as nearly as productive away from Baltimore.
Westburg’s Home/Away Splits (2024)
Home .304 AVG/.350 OBP/.542 SLG
Away .228 AVG/.275 OBP/.423 SLG
Even though Westburg played two infield positions, the metrics suggest he was a below-average glove at second base. In 381.2 innings, the Texan accrued minus-7 OAA. As a reference point, Jorge Polanco of the Mariners ranked last with minus-10.
Westburg missed most of August and September with a fractured hand. He returned to action for the last week of the season and hit .192 followed by a .167 AVG in the postseason. Too small of a sample to make assessments and most likely a nothing-burger in the long run.
Joey Ortiz - Brewers
Selling points: Only three Mariners had a better OBP than Ortiz this year: Víctor Robles (.393), Justin Turner (.363), and Randy Arozarena (.356). Driving the New Mexico State alum’s on-base success was a 24th-best walk rate. Furthermore, Ortiz had more doubles than any Seattle player. Dylan Moore led the team with 23.
Ortiz’s 28.7 ft/sec sprint speed would’ve ranked third among Mariners with 100 competitive runs. The 26-year-old made good use of those fleet feet stealing 11 bases.
Defense was a clear-cut strength for Ortiz. Baltimore’s 4th round pick in 2018 had 11 OAA tying him for tops among big-league third basemen with Matt Chapman. Although he primarily patrols the hot corner for the Brewers, Ortiz has made 10 starts at second base and four at shortstop since debuting in 2023.
Potential concerns: Ortiz started strong with an .801 OPS in the first half of the season. Following the All-Star break though, the right-handed hitter produced a .645 OPS.
Ortiz’s Monthly OBP
Mar/Apr .385
May .391
Jun .365
Jul .222
Aug .290
Sep .305
MLB average OBP = .318
Ortiz also performed noticeably better at home than on the road with his power numbers suffering away from Milwaukee’s American Family Field.
Ortiz’s Home/Away Splits (2024)
Home: 245 PA/8 HR/.240 AVG/.340 OBP/.452 SLG
Away: 266 PA/3 HR/.237 AVG/.318 OBP/.349 SLG
Granted, Ortiz’s splits aren’t as extreme as Westburg’s. Plus, he managed to reach base at an average-ish rate on the road.
Thoughts
Vientos, Westburg, and Ortiz share a few things in common. All will be 26-or-younger next year, have fewer than 200 games of MLB experience, and remain under club control for five more seasons.
Still, the trio’s inexperience means the league may make adjustments that lead to one-or-more of them experiencing regression. That’s a factor to consider if a club was interested in acquiring Vientos, Westburg, or Ortiz.
Having said all that, it’s important to do a reality check. All of the good stuff we’ve been discussing is justification for the Mets, Orioles, and Brewers to keep their young third baseman.
Then again, it’s hot stove season. Talking about baseball and possible trade targets is part of the fun. Even when the chatter may be a bit unrealistic or at least lofty in aspirations.
My Oh My…