Three second basemen I like for the Mariners
Can Seattle avoid repeating past mistakes when searching for a second baseman this offseason?
There are two indicators suggesting the Mariners will be in the market for a second baseman this offseason. First, the team didn’t exercise its option on this year’s Opening Day second baseman, Jorge Polanco.
The second sign Seattle will shop in the second base aisle this winter is more straightforward. Mariners GM Justin Hollander said as much to Jon Morosi of MLB Network at this week’s GM meetings.
Knowing the Mariners are hunting for a second baseman, I identified three candidates to help the team in 2025. All are under club control - no free agents. As you will see, my suggestions share several characteristics.
They limit strikeouts
They reach base
They provide value with their feet
They weren’t a liability in the field
After what we’ve witnessed from Mariner second basemen since the departure of Robinson Canó in 2018, a player capable of being proficient, or at least decent, at these four elements would be a breath of fresh air in the Emerald City.
Please note the age listed on the following tables is the player’s age for the 2025 season.
Nico Hoerner - Cubs
Selling points: If he were a Mariner this season, Hoerner’s .335 OBP would've ranked third on the team behind Víctor Robles (.393) and Randy Arozarena (.356). Furthermore, the Stanford product’s strikeout rate was fourth-lowest among 207 hitters with at least 400 plate appearances.
Hoerner’s 28.4 ft/sec sprint speed (27 ft/sec is average) helped him steal 31 bases. The only Mariner with more swiped bags was Dylan Moore (32).
Based on Statcast’s Fielding Run Value (FRV), Hoerner was among baseball’s best defensive second baseman. The Oakland, California native’s eight FRV was fourth-best among 26 players with 500 innings at the keystone. I’m surprised he wasn’t a Gold Glove finalist.
Although he was the Cubs’ regular second baseman, Hoerner has demonstrated the versatility to slide over to shortstop. This year, he started eight games at the position - 14 times in 2023.
Potential concerns: Hoerner doesn’t create loud contact. His 27.6-percent hard-hit rate was 18th-lowest among 252 hitters with 180 batted balls. Within the same group of players, only Sal Frelick of Milwaukee (0.8-percent) had a lower barrel rate than the North Sider’s second baseman (0.9-percent).
Thoughts: For me, Hoerner’s stats provide a sense of certainty he can repeat his 2024 production. After all, the right-handed hitter is only 27-years-old. Moreover, his slash-line is amazingly similar to the career .278 AVG/.338 OBP/.381 SLG produced in over 2,000 big-league plate appearances.
Jonathan India - Reds
Selling points: India is even better at reaching base than Hoerner. The fifth overall draft pick by the Reds in 2018 ranked 21st in OBP. This was attributable to having the fifth-best walk rate in MLB. His better-than-average strikeout rate also helped the cause. The only Mariners with lower strikeout rates than India were Robles (16.8-percent) and Justin Turner (18.4-percent).
Some of you may view this as a bit too nerdy. But I’m going to mention it anyway. India had a .354 xwOBA, which was top-25 this year. Although I frequently rely on xwOBA when discussing pitchers, it can also be a useful metric with hitters.
Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) uses quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle) to determine what should’ve happened to batted balls. A key advantage to xwOBA is that defense (good or bad) doesn’t influence it. This gives us a truer sense of how a hitter or pitcher is performing. MLB league-average xwOBA last year = .315
The minus-.021 gap between India’s .333 wOBA (actual results) and .354 xwOBA (expected results) suggests to me that the potential exists for even better production from the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year.
India isn’t a big base stealer, although he did swipe 13 bags in 2024. That said, only three Mariners with 100 competitive runs had a quicker sprint speed than the Floridian (28 ft/sec): Julio Rodríguez (29.6), Luke Raley (28.9), and Arozarena (28.1).
With an FRV of one, India was a slightly above-average second base defender. A noticeable improvement over the minus-5 FRV produced in 2023.
Potential concerns: India has extreme home and away splits over the last three seasons.
India’s Home/Away Splits (2022-24)
Home: 757 PA/25 HR/.265 AVG/.362 OBP/.445 SLG
Away: 840 PA/17 HR/.231 AVG/.325 OBP/.348 SLG
This disparity is important to recognize since Statcast rates Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark as one of the more hitter-friendly venues in baseball. And we all know that Seattle’s T-Mobile Park is quite the opposite.
India’s .750 OPS for the season was excellent. However, his OPS was well below the league average (.711) in four of six months.
India’s Inconsistent OPS
Mar/Apr - .650
May - .670
Jun - 1.041
Jul - .682
Aug- .646
Sep - .817
MLB average OPS = .711
Thoughts: India’s name has been previously tied to the Mariners in trade speculation. Could he help Seattle in 2025? Sure, but acquiring the 27-year-old means accepting the risk his power numbers could potentially crater at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park.
Luis García Jr. - Nationals
Selling points: García’s .444 SLG would’ve ranked third on the Mariners this year behind Robles (.467) and Raley (.463) and ahead of Cal Raleigh (.436). His 25 doubles would’ve supplanted Dylan Moore (23) for team lead. The New York native’s top-25 strikeout rate would’ve paced Seattle hitters, too.
Again, I’m a bit surprised one of the players we’re discussing wasn’t a finalist for a Gold Glove. García’s four FRV tied him for sixth among second baseman with NL Gold Glover Brice Turang of the Brewers.
García had an average-ish 27.2 ft/sec sprint speed. But he did steal 22 bases. Only Moore (32), Robles (30), and Rodríguez (24) had more for Seattle.
Potential concerns: This year was the first time García played more than 125 games in his brief career. Furthermore, the left-handed hitter’s platoon splits suggest lefty pitching is kryptonite for him.
García’s Extreme Platoon Splits (2024)
v LHP 114 PA/1 HR/259 AVG/.290 OBP/.352 SLG
v RHP 414 PA/17 HR/.288 AVG/.326 OBP/.469 SLG
Like India, García must prefer home cooking. The 24-year-old hit 14 of his 18 home runs at Nationals Park and delivered a .549 SLG, while slugging just .335 on the road.
Thoughts: García is somewhat of a work in progress and not as established as Hoerner or India. Considering his age, it’s understandable if you’re optimistic about him becoming a more consistent and productive hitter against lefty pitching and away from the District of Columbia. On the other hand, it’s also reasonable to wonder whether a player with a 94 wRC+ after 1,773 career plate appearances grows beyond the career stats produced thus far.
Finally
Based on my spotty record at identifying players for the Mariners, there’s a decent chance the front office goes in a completely different direction than the names I’ve discussed. There are certainly other options out there to consider.
Having said that, the Mariners must find a way to avoid a repeat of the last three winters when the team acquired second basemen who underperformed expectations: Polanco, Kolten Wong, and Adam Frazier. All had solid reputations and name recognition. But each was a thirty-something during their one season in Seattle. Perhaps that’s a correlation worth exploring.
In my mind, the Mariners need a second baseman with tread remaining on the tires. Hoerner, India, and García all check this block. Sure, there are risks associated with each. But the trio is athletic, possesses on-base ability, and can help the team in the field and on the bases. That’s exactly what’s needed.
Sure, the Mariners have a stable of promising young infield prospects Seattle fans are eagerly anticipating. Players such as Colt Emerson, Cole Young, Felnin Celesten, Tai Peete, and Michael Arroyo. But most of these youngsters are several years away. Furthermore, there’s no guarantee any of them fulfill their potential at the big-league level.
In the interim, the Mariners have a prime opportunity to ride one of the best starting rotations in baseball on a deep postseason run next year. But to make this a reality, the offense must improve. Hoerner, India, or García could be one of several building blocks added this offseason to help achieve this goal.
My Oh My…
Are all these guy free agents, or are these trade targets?