The Mariners striking out more was inevitable
Hitters with uncharacteristically high strikeout rates aren't helping the cause. But the Mariners whiffing more often than last year shouldn't come as a surprise.
Listen to local sports radio or team broadcasts and you’ll detect a recurring theme. The Mariners strikeout a lot.
I mean, a lot.
Entering today, Mariner hitters were tied with the Giants for the highest strikeout rate (25.6%) in MLB. That’s a noticeable increase over last season (22.8%) when Seattle was essentially league-average.
So, what’s changed since 2022?
As I just said, a lot.
Out with the zone-controllers
Over the winter, the Mariners parted ways with four hitters adept at limiting strikeouts: Adam Frazier, Jesse Winker, Carlos Santana, and Abraham Toro. Last season, the quartet combined for 1,791 plate appearances and a superb 16.8% strikeout rate, which was over five points better than the MLB average.
To be clear, I’m not suggesting the Mariners should’ve retained these four players. Turning the page made sense to me in the offseason and still does now. But it’s important to acknowledge replacing this much plate discipline in a single offseason was going to be a challenge.
The front office did attempt to counter the loss of these zone-controllers by adding several veterans with a low-strikeout history. But it also acquired a high-strikeout bat (Teoscar Hernández) to play right field. Furthermore, management banked on a young hitter (Jarred Kelenic) with a 29.9% strikeout rate in 558 previous plate appearances to receive the majority of playing time in left field.
Perhaps a visual will help demonstrate why offseason roster churn made a climb in strikeouts inevitable. The following compares the 2022 strikeout rates of six former Mariners to their replacements and Kelenic. The table’s bottom line foreshadowed a rise in whiffs.
The ex-Mariners accounted for 36% of the team’s plate appearances last season and collectively produced an excellent 18.8% strikeout rate. Conversely, the new guys along with Kelenic struck out 4.3% more often in about the same number of plate appearances.
It’s important to recognize a reconfigured roster isn’t the only reason strikeouts are up in the Emerald City. There are other factors to consider.
More K’s than expected
Five hitters projected to be regular contributors this season are striking out noticeably more often than they did in 2022. Two had a reputation for whiffing; the others did not.
Some fans may have noted the disparity in strikeout rates between Hernández and Mitch Haniger illustrated in the preceding table. But it’s important to note Haniger appeared in just 57 games last year. All told, 12 players spent time in right field.
Fun fact: The 28.9% strikeout rate of Seattle right fielders last season was identical to what Hernández produced.
Perhaps this nugget is why management felt comfortable with acquiring another hitter with a high-strikeout reputation. Especially if Hernández continued making loud contact and producing at the plate, as he had done with Toronto in recent years.
Unfortunately, this has yet to completely happen on a consistent basis with the Mariners.
Hernández’s 33.3% strikeout rate this season is fourth-highest among 167 qualified hitters. High even by his standards. Compounding matters, an underwhelming .242 AVG/.282 OBP/.430 SLG slash-line and 98 wRC+.
There have been momentary flashes from Hernández. But his elevated susceptibility to the strikeout has hamstrung his new club’s run production effort. Improved plate discipline from the 30-year-old will be pivotal to the Mariners plating more runs this summer.
I won’t suggest the 22-year-old can’t succeed without significantly cutting down on strikeouts. But Rodríguez does have a .217 AVG/.286 OBP/.398 SLG slash to go with a 29.1% strikeout rate. These numbers do make a dumb blogger wonder.
Perhaps Rodríguez’s 34.9% chase rate is the causal factor behind his diminished production numbers. The MLB average is 28.1%.
In March, we discussed Rodríguez’s chase rate as a number to watch this season. Entering today, the 2022 AL Rookie of the Year ranked eighteenth-highest among 126 hitters seeing 300-plus pitches outside the strike zone.
Pollock has a history of crushing left-handed pitching - not so much this season. He’s hitting just .083 against southpaws. That said, his strikeout rate against lefties is a very respectable 15%. Unfortunately, the 35-year-old has struck out in 29.5% of 44 plate confrontations with right-handers, although he does have a 115 wRC+ against them.
After boasting a 17.7% strikeout rate in two seasons with Milwaukee, Wong is striking out at an uncharacteristically high rate for him - not the league. The Hawaiian is also suffering through an epically slow start to the season (.177 AVG/.259 OBP/.208 SLG with just three extra-base hits).
Earlier this week, we discussed whether Wong and Jose Caballero formed the ideal second base platoon. Considering the 11-year veteran’s struggles at the plate and in the field, it’s plausible he eventually loses more playing time to Caballero.
Yes, the season is still relatively young. But perhaps the Californian having a higher-than-usual strikeout rate is a worthwhile trade-off. Crawford’s .368 OBP is a career-high. So is a 36.4% hard-hit rate that’s noticeably above what he’s done over six previous big-league seasons (29.7%).
The bench whiffs a lot too
Seattle’s part-timers have a combined 28.6% strikeout rate in 227 plate appearances. Obviously, this is suboptimal.
Granted, these hitters have a low number of plate appearances. Therefore, their rate stats could look drastically better or worse within the span of a week. But the totality of their strikeout numbers highlights a current roster flaw.
For those awaiting the return of Dylan Moore from the IL, take note. Moore had a 29.4% strikeout rate last year - identical to what he produced in 2021. The 30-year-old will provide greater positional flexibility and perhaps more pop against left-handed pitching. But it’s unlikely he positively affects the strikeout rate of the bench or team.
Turning a corner?
It appears the Mariners are beginning to beat down that league-leading strikeout rate. In May, the team has a 23.6% strikeout rate, which is three-percent better than March/April and good enough to rank 21st this month.
To be fair, May is only half over. So, it’s possible the strikeouts begin piling up again. But a review of Mariners with 20-plus plate appearances in each month reveals nearly all of them are experiencing a drop in strikeout frequency this month. This is an encouraging development albeit in a small sample.
If you’re looking for a reason for optimism regarding Hernández, here it is. During his last 12 games (51 plate appearances), he has a .326 AVG/.373 OBP/.457 SLG with a more typical 29.4% strikeout rate and a nearly-average 7.8% walk rate. Perhaps the Dominican Republic native’s bat is heating up.
Finally
Despite the positive beginning to May, it’s unlikely Seattle hitters suddenly become top-10 in the category. Last season, the club ranked 17th with multiple “control the zone” types in the lineup. A more reasonable expectation would be ranking about 20th, which is where the Mariners currently sit this month.
If the Mariners can sustain the manageable strikeout rate just suggested, run production likely becomes more consistent. This is something the team desperately needs to contend.
Then again, if we’re still talking about the Mariners’ high strikeout rate well into the summer, a less welcome outcome may await the franchise.
A new drought beginning this October.
My Oh My…