When the Mariners fired manager Scott Servais and hitting coach Jarret DeHart on August 22, the organization chose a pair of franchise legends to lead the team and hopefully kickstart its lackluster offense.
Former Mariners catcher Dan Wilson replaced Servais, while Hall of Famer Edgar Martínez joined his former teammate’s staff as hitting coach. It was Martínez’s second stint in the job with Seattle and Wilson’s first full-time managerial gig, ever. At first glance, the change appeared to be a literal game-changer for the club.
Over the final 34 games of the season, the Wilson-led Mariners produced a .618 winning percentage. Only the Tigers (.686) were better in the AL during this timeframe. Certainly, an encouraging development for a skipper with more experience in the booth as a broadcaster than managing from the dugout.
As for the Mariners’ lineup under Wilson and Martínez, it was better than it had been during any 34-game span of the season. The following illustrates the offensive stats produced by the team before and after Servais was let go.
The Mariners hit home runs and walked at about the same rate as they had prior to August 22. But hitters struck out noticeably less often. Plus, the team experienced significant jumps in AVG, OBP, SLG, and wOBA. Most importantly, the offense was averaging about an extra run-per-game.
Naturally, the lineup being resilient for the first time all season inspired a segment of fans to give full credit to Wilson and Martínez for the turnaround - the Dan & Edgar effect. A predictable sentiment, although I’m not buying it.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not dismissing the notion Wilson and Martínez helped the lineup become more effective. But a single event, like a change in leadership, didn’t revitalize the offense. Instead, the duo’s arrival was one of several factors that led to Seattle’s September surge.
Let’s discuss.
Those deadline deals
First, the Mariners acquired two established bats just prior to the MLB trade deadline - Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner. Their combined production with Wilson and Martínez in the dugout was crucial to the team’s late-season success.
With the exception of strikeout percentage, the combined effort of Arozarena and Turner easily bested the MLB average for each category listed above.
Julioooooo!
Servais didn’t benefit from Julio Rodríguez performing up to previously established expectations. But the 2022 AL Rookie of the Year did deliver in a big way for the new leadership group.
On July 21, Rodríguez suffered a high ankle sprain, which led to an IL stint and 17 missed games. When the 23-year-old returned, he served as Seattle’s designated hitter for nine contests before finally returning to center field on August 23 - Wilson’s first day in the dugout as skipper.
It took about a week for Rodríguez’s bat to ignite with Wilson and Martínez in charge. But when it did, he hit eight home runs with a .344 AVG/.382 OBP/.576 SLG slash-line over the final 28 games of the year. It’s worth noting the two-time Silver Slugger had hit just 11 home runs before the managerial change.
What’s your vector, Victor?
If I told you in July that Arozarena and Turner would contribute to Seattle’s offense being significantly better in September, you probably wouldn’t have given it a second thought. Same with the idea of Rodríguez experiencing a late-season bump in production. But Víctor Robles?
I bet Robles catching fire wasn’t on your bingo card.
Surprising but true. The eight-year veteran was one of baseball’s best hitters during the final five weeks of the regular season.
Robles’ Stats Under Wilson (and MLB Rankings*)
.407 AVG (1st in MLB)
.475 OBP (1st)
.558 SLG (16th)
1.033 OPS (3rd)
.445 wOBA (2nd)
203 wRC+ (2nd)
16 SB (2nd)
12.5 SO% (12th)
* 100 PA minimum
The only hitter with 100-plus plate appearances after August 22 with a higher wOBA and wRC+ and more stolen bases than Robles was Shohei Ohtani. Perhaps you’ve heard of him.
To demonstrate Robles’ value to Seattle’s offense during its final 34 games, I performed a side-by-side comparison of the team’s production numbers with and without the 27-year-old included. The difference was more striking than I had anticipated.
Consider for a moment the decline in Seattle’s stats when Robles wasn’t included. The team’s batting average was 13 points lower with similar drops in OBP, SLG, and wOBA. I guess we all missed out by not having Víctor Robles on our bingo card.
Dan was dealt a better hand than Scott
Let’s face it. Arozarena, Turner, a productive Rodríguez, Robles, Luke Raley, and Cal Raleigh provided Wilson with a significantly wider foundation of quality bats than what Servais dealt with all season. This led to improved offensive contributions from several positions.
First base
Until Turner’s arrival on July 30, Seattle first basemen had combined for a 90 wRC+, which tied for 24th lowest with Oakland. In the month prior to acquiring the 16-year veteran, the position had sunk to an MLB-worst 21 wRC+. Gone were the likes of Ty France, Jason Vosler, and Tyler Locklear. Instead, the team counted on Turner and Raley and the pair performed brilliantly.
For the final two months of the season, Turner and Raley produced a 162 wRC+ at first base. Only Toronto’s first basemen (171 wRC+) were better during this period.
Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) quantifies how a hitter’s total offensive value compares with the league average after adjusting for park effects. League-average is always 100. Therefore, a wRC+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 wRC+ would be 20-percent below average.
Designated hitter
Turner also made positive contributions to the designated hitter spot. Entering the season, the Mariners had committed to having Mitch Garver serve as their full-time designated hitter. Unfortunately for both player and team, his bat never got on track.
Management eventually changed course, transitioning Garver to a back-up catcher role with occasional starts at DH. A review of the 33-year-old’s games at DH, by month, provides evidence when the change took hold.
Mitch Garver Games at DH
Mar/Apr - 25
May - 21
Jun - 16
Jul - 11
Aug - 5
Sept - 5
As already mentioned, Rodríguez spent significant time at designated hitter in August as he nursed his high ankle sprain back to health. But in September, Turner covered nearly 40-percent of Seattle’s 110 DH plate appearances. This permitted the team to produce an eighth-ranked 110 wRC+ during the final month of the season.
Left field
Similarly, left field production experienced an uptick once Arozarena was in place. When the native of Cuba joined the Mariners on July 27, Seattle left fielders had a seventeenth-ranked 94 wRC+. Not terrible. But Arozarena posted a 123 wRC+ while playing the position in 51 of his new club’s final 57 contests.
Right field
When Rodríguez finally returned to center field on August 28, Robles became the starting right fielder. From that point moving forward, Seattle right fielders combined for a 172 wRC+, which was the best in baseball. Prior to the change, the Mariners received a 95 wRC+ from the position.
A roster re-imagined
By now, it should be clear that by the final month of the season, Seattle’s roster had undergone significant alterations. This led to several players receiving fewer opportunities to contribute. In terms of plate appearances, Mitch Haniger was the biggest loser.
With a healthy Rodríguez in center field and Arozarena a fixture in left field, Haniger was essentially squeezed out of the lineup when Robles became the starting right fielder at the end of August. This becomes evident when we compare how playing time was distributed before and after Rodríguez’s return to the outfield.
Another roster casualty was Dominic Canzone. The 27-year-old was out of the picture in September after the Mariners assigned him to Class-AAA Tacoma on August 28.
Compared to the outfield, third base underwent a more subtle change. Dylan Moore lost plate appearances at shortstop once J.P. Crawford returned from the IL on August 28. However, the 32-year-old and Luis Urías - both right-handed hitters - did receive additional playing time at the hot corner against left-handed pitching.
Granted, we’re talking about relatively small samples. But the change in plate appearance distribution following Crawford’s return from the IL may signal Wilson was attempting to limit the number of times left-handed hitter Josh Rojas faced southpaw pitching.
But Edgar
Did Martínez’s presence help the Mariners’ offense improve over the final month of the season? I’d love to reply with an emphatic “yes” since Edgar was Mrs. A’s favorite player. I’m confident he made a positive impact, although it’s difficult to quantify the Edgar effect.
Still, it’s important to consider what Seattle Times beat writer Ryan Divish recently told Jason Puckett during an episode of the Daily Puck Drop Show. Divish noted Rodríguez had acted on several recommendations made by Martínez.
Considering Rodríguez’s strong showing in September, it certainly appears the Hall of Famer’s advice paid off - at least in the short-term. But beyond Julio, this blogger doesn’t feel comfortable saying, “Oh yeah, Edgar fixed that guy.” about anyone else on the roster.
Speaking of adjustments. We should remember Daniel Kramer of MLB noted in July that Robles credited DeHart with a mechanical change recommendation that ignited his season and eventually Seattle’s lineup.
“I’ve always been a quick hips type of guy and JD made some type of balance in between and helped me with a scissor swing a little bit, so I can have more direction to the ball. I just got close to him and told him that I’m here to do whatever I thought was going to help me out.” - Víctor Robles
Finally
Yes, Wilson and Martínez contributed to the Mariners’ success in September. But probably not as much as some fans want to believe. In reality, the duo benefitted from having a larger stable of productive hitters and an overall better roster than their predecessors did.
Furthermore, Dan and Edgar were in charge for just 34 games. Hardly a big enough sample size to gauge the effectiveness of any major-league management team. And as we recently discussed, Servais and Wilson each posted a 21-13 record through their first 34 games as big-league managers.
Something else to consider. How much should we buy into Robles’ torrid end to the season? The Dominican Republic native produced a gawdy 1.033 OPS during the Mariners’ final 34 contests. Do we expect that he’ll repeat this level of productivity over a full season next year?
Perhaps time will prove me wrong. Hopefully, it will. But I have reservations about Robles and will take a wait-and-see approach with him. Let’s not forget that Rojas had a 1.029 OPS through Seattle’s first 34 games this year. How did that work out for both player and team?
Small samples can be extremely deceptive. Especially, when we want to see something that’s not necessarily there.
Like the Dan and Edgar effect.
My Oh My…
I personally choose to believe that Wilson/Martinez are better at looking at the guys on the 40-man roster and choosing better lineups than Dipoto/Servais.
They are also better at identifying what they want each player to do.
The fact that Robles hit ZERO HRs and had a 192 wRC+ was clearly significant.
The Dipoto mantra of "it's hard to string hits together in MLB" held this team back.
It's hard to string hits together when you have 13 guys all trying to hit HRs.
It's much easier when everyone is trying to hit a LD off the wall.
Or...I could be wrong.
There's no question Dan and Edgar had an affect on the changes, and I agree it might not be as much as people think, but it's hard to fully quantify because there really are so many different factors that go into all of it. But I thought it might be interesting to look at the 34 games prior to D&E arriving, compared to the 34 after they arrived, and there certainly are some interesting points to look at on offense. In the 34 games before D&E the M's offense had:
0-run games: 3
1-run games: 6
2-run games: 8
3-run games: 2
4-run games: 3
5+ runs: 13
10+ runs: 6
Now compare that to after D&E arrived:
0-run games: 1
1-run games: 1
2-run games: 5
3-run games: 4
4-run games: 4
5+ runs: 19
10+ runs: 2
The most obvious differences are the changes in 0/1/2 run games, where prior to D&E there were 17 combined, versus only 7 after D&E, and on the other end, looking at 5+ runs going from 13 to 19 is pretty big. While it's interesting to note that the M's were 13-21 before D&E, and 21-13 after, the more interesting thing is that while they were amid their deflating 13-21 run, they still averaged 4.2 runs per game, which is respectable, before they upped their average to 5.1 per game.
The other big factor you neglected to mention was the performance of the bullpen, which was crucial to the losing ways before Servais was fired. Not that their record was significantly worse in the 34 games prior (3-9 before, 5-7 after), but you could tell the lack of trust in the BP was leading other players to lose hope... giving away leads to bad teams is not confidence-inducing. While the BP's record got better, it's not nearly enough to account for the rest of our record getting massively better. But the bullpen's ERA of 4.63 in the prior 34 hurts... that's over a run every two innings, with unfortunate consistency towards the D&E move. After D&E that ERA came down 2.89, which is giving up less than one run every 3 innings, and is waaaay easier to build and maintain team confidence behind. I would argue that Dan's role in 1) the usage of the BP, and therefore 2) the BP's better performance, probably lifted a mental weight off the mind's of the offensive bats, letting them feel confident that the leads they create will be maintained.
I watch allllmost every game the Mariners play, and it was clearly written on all the players' faces that they had lost all confidence in the last week or two before Servais was fired. Any change, at that point, would have to be positive... it's just hard to get any lower than they looked. So one could argue that any new managers coming on board would have created a similar relief in the mind's of the players. But what D&E did from that point on is clearly all positive, according to the players. Stability and confidence are an amazing thing, especially when they've been lacking.