Rounding Out the Numbers: Put a Trident in It!

All good things must come to an end. So do disappointing things.

Abbie Parr / AP Images

Yesterday, the Mariners season reached a disappointing conclusion with Seattle fans witnessing their team missing the postseason for the 21st time this century. Now, all that’s left to do is to reflect on what could have been and the uncertainty of the upcoming offseason.

To help kickstart the conversation, I’ve collected an array of facts and figures for your perusal. It’s the first of many things I hope to publish between now and Opening Day.

Four

The number of Seattle pitchers with 15+ quality starts, which was more than any other MLB club could boast this season. As a consequence, Mariners starters logged more innings than any rotation in baseball.

Teams with Most 15+ Quality Start Pitchers

SEA - 4
PHI -3
CHC - 2
ATL - 2
KCR - 2
MIN - 2
PIT - 2
TOR - 2
BOS - 2
HOU - 2

The Seattle starters with 15+ quality starts were Logan Gilbert (22), George Kirby (20), Luis Castillo (18), and Bryce Miller (18). Other Mariners with quality starts: Bryan Woo (10), and Emerson Hancock (4). All told, that’s 92 starts of three-or-fewer earned runs allowed and six-plus innings pitched, which was fourth-most in franchise history.

Most Quality Starts by an M’s Rotation

1990 - 95
2003 - 94
2011 - 94
2024 - 92
1982 - 91
1993 - 90
2010 - 90
2001 - 89*
2012 - 89
2015 - 88

* Reached postseason

.302

The opponent wOBA of left-handed hitters against Seattle starters this season, which was fourth-lowest in the majors.

Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is a sabermetric version of on-base percentage (OBP) that credits hitters for how he reached rather than treating all on-base events as equals, as OBP does. For instance, a double is more valuable to run production than a single, a home run more than a double, etc. MLB league-average wOBA this year = .310

Two Mariners in particular took a huge step forward versus lefty bats this year - sophomores Miller and Woo.

Miller’s newfound success was likely attributable to the Texan adding a splitter to his repertoire. In 2024, 21.1-percent of his offerings to left-handed bats were splitters that produced a .204 wOBA.

To this non-expert, Woo’s improvement likely resulted from featuring his sinker and changeup more often and decreasing sweeper and slider usage. Being more aggressive in the strike zone had to help, too. The 24-year-old enjoyed an 8.7-percent jump in his first-pitch strike rate over last season, the seventh-largest increase in MLB.

Last offseason, some fans suggested the Mariners should acquire a left-handed starter. But the front office opted to stick with its talented stable of right-handed starters. In this case, management chose wisely.

23

The number of losses the Mariners suffered when allowing three-or-fewer runs. This tied the team for most such defeats in MLB with the hapless White Sox.

Most Losses with Three-or-Fewer Runs Allowed

SEA - 23
CHW - 23
TOR - 21
MIA - 20
CIN - 20
OAK - 19
TBR - 19
CHC - 19
LAA - 17
DET - 17

Picture a reality where the Mariners won half of those 23 contests instead of losing them. If that had been the case, postseason baseball would be played at T-Mobile Park this week.

135

The combined wRC+ of three key in-season additions to the Mariners’ lineup - Víctor Robles, Randy Arozarena, and Justin Turner.

Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) quantifies how a hitter’s total offensive value compares with the league average after adjusting for park effects. League-average is always 100. Therefore, a wRC+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 wRC+ would be 20-percent below average.

First came the least likely catalyst - Víctor Robles. The 27-year-old, who became a Mariner on June 5 after being designated for assignment by the Nationals.

Initially used as a defensive replacement and in a platoon role, Robles didn’t play a complete game with his new team until July 13. From that day forward, the Dominican Republic native posted a .328 AVG/.393 OBP/.456 SLG slash-line with 16 doubles and 28 stolen bases.

Arozarena came from Tampa Bay and Turner via Toronto shortly before the MLB trade deadline. Both established players were above average run producers over the final two months of the season.

wRC+ in Aug-Sep (100 PA min)

Luke Raley - 181
Victor Robles - 143
Julio Rodríguez - 140
Justin Turner - 128
Cal Raleigh - 125
Randy Arozarena - 117
Jorge Polanco - 94
Dylan Moore - 83
J.P. Crawford - 79
Josh Rojas - 57

96

The wRC+ of noteworthy hitters acquired by the Mariners last offseason. Only Raley met or exceeded expectations.

Consider this. The underachieving group listed above combined for 32-percent of Seattle’s 6,067 plate appearances this season. Let that sink in for a moment.

Not only that, last winter’s additions collectively produced a 30.1-percent strikeout rate. Nearly eight-percent higher than the MLB average. If we remove Raley from the group, its strikeout rate remains approximately the same. However, wRC+ drops to a meager 89.

91

Sorry, I hate to pile on. But 91 is the wRC+ of the three position players acquired for reliever Paul Sewald in July 2023 - Josh Rojas, Dominic Canzone, and Ryan Bliss. This trio accounted for another 12-percent of the team’s plate appearances in 2024.

Some Mariners fans will point to the collective performance of the team’s acquisitions at the 2023 deadline and last offseason as proof the organization has a blind spot when it comes to evaluating hitters.

It’s true the results delivered by these players have been suboptimal. But the success of Raley, Robles, Arozarena, and Turner suggests to me that budgetary constraints may have had more to do with acquiring unproductive players than an inability to assess hitters.

1,135

Per Spotrac, the number of player-days the Mariners lost to injury this season. That’s relatively close to last year’s total (1,166).

Fewest Days Lost to Injury

TOR - 675
DET - 728
SDP - 856
KCR - 1,013
PHI - 1,044
SEA - 1,135
CLE - 1,137
STL - 1,233
BAL - 1,265
WSH - 1,297

Some Mariners fans may find it interesting that most of the offseason acquisitions with a history of availability challenges avoided missing significant time to injury. Specifically: Raley, Mitch Haniger, Mitch Garver, and Luis Urías. Only Jorge Polanco spent time on the IL.

2021-24

The years encompassing Seattle’s current streak of consecutive winning seasons. Some fans may view the Mariners being above .500 for a fourth straight year as a good news story. Still, this year’s 85-77 club didn’t reach the postseason, which is the only thing that matters to any fanbase.

32-20

Seattle’s excellent record against its AL West foes. Unfortunately, the Mariners lost too often to a pair of disappointing rivals - the A’s and Angels. A combined 14-12 record against these two clubs undoubtedly dashed Seattle’s postseason aspirations.

M’s Record vs AL West

HOU (8-5)
TEX (10-3)
LAA (5-8)
OAK (9-4)

49-32

The Mariners’ record at T-Mobile Park this year, which equated to baseball’s fourth-best home winning percentage. Only the Phillies (.667), Dodgers (.642), and Guardians (.625) were better.

As much as we’ve talked about the challenges of building a lineup capable of performing at the Mariners’ home field, the team clearly succeeded in the Emerald City this year.

From a historical perspective, the 2024 Mariners produced the franchise’s fourth-best home winning percentage. Third-best since leaving the Kingdome.

Best Home Winning Percentages for M’s

2001 - .704
1995 - .630
2003 - .617
2024 - .605
2007 - .598
2009 - .593
2002 - .593
2020 - .583
2000 - .580
2022 - .568

3.8

The average number of runs scored by the Mariners during home games this year. The road was a different matter (4.6 runs scored-per-game). That said, it’s important to recognize the pitching staff benefited from T-Mobile Park, as it should.

In Seattle, the Mariners’ staff averaged 3.2 runs allowed-per-game. Away from the Pacific Northwest, it surrendered an average of 4.3 runs-per-game. Some fans have expressed concern over this disparity, although I don’t understand their reasoning.

Sure, Seattle pitchers were better at home than any staff in baseball. But what would you expect? The team plays in a venue with a well-earned reputation for suppressing offensive production. As for pitching staff away from Seattle, the Mariners were league-average in runs allowed. But it’s important to note the rotation delivered 40 quality starts on the road this season, which led MLB.

The true road issue for the Mariners was losing 13 of those 40 quality starts. Again, imagine how differently this week would be in Seattle if the team had been victorious in half of those losing affairs.

21-13

The Mariners’ record under Dan Wilson since he replaced Scott Servais as manager. How Seattle performed with Wilson at the helm for the final 34 games of 2024 has received a great deal of attention over the airwaves and on Mariners Twitter.

Personally, the sample size is too small to form an opinion on whether Wilson is the reason the team performed better since August 22. After all, Seattle’s record through the first 34 games of the Servais and Wilson eras is identical.

Managerial Thru First 34 Games

Servais: 21-13
Wilson: 21-13

Perhaps a change was necessary for reasons the public will never know about. However, I suggest allowing a full season to elapse before concluding whether switching from Servais to Wilson was a game-changer for the organization.

-134,605

The decrease in Seattle’s home attendance this season from 2023. What I find interesting is the manner in which this decline occurred. Through the end of July, attendance for the season was up by nearly 1,000-per-game. But it took a tumble over the final two months of the 2024 campaign.

Maybe last year’s excellent attendance figures were bolstered by a 2022 postseason bid, hosting the All-Star game, a torrid August, and beginning September in first place. Make sense to this nerd.

Conversely, the 2024 club didn’t benefit from postseason baseball being played the season prior. Nor did it have the Mid-Summer Classic to generate fan interest. Still, Seattle did have an opportunity to play well in the second half and did not do so.

Bottom line: The Mariners didn’t deliver results soon enough to positively influence home attendance or the standings.

My Oh My…