Sizing up potential infield options

The Mariners have infield needs. Here are ideas for fans to consider and possibly gnash their teeth over.

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We’ve reached New Year’s Day and the Mariners’ infield situation remains an enigma. At least it does to this nerd.

Gone via free agency are first baseman Justin Turner, second baseman Jorge Polanco, plus third basemen Josh Rojas and Luis Urías. In their place, there’s been just one offseason acquisition - corner infielder Austin Shenton from the Rays.

With so much work seemingly left to be done, we should revisit free agent candidates and potential trade targets to augment Seattle’s infield. Unfortunately, many of the names we’re about to discuss won’t generate much enthusiasm within the fan base.

Let’s begin with Seattle’s lone addition.

As many of you know, Shenton is a local product selected by Seattle in the fifth round of the 2019 draft. He was subsequently dealt with reliever JT Chargois to Tampa Bay in exchange for reliever Diego Castillo in July 2021. The Bellingham High School graduate is now back with his original organization, although it’s unclear how he’ll fit into the Mariners’ plans.

During a very brief stint with the Rays, Shenton produced a .214 AVG/.340 OBP/.405 SLG with a 120 wRC+ in 50 plate appearances. He also hit .258/.361/.497, plus 20 home runs and 12 doubles with Class-AAA Durham.

Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) quantifies how a hitter’s total offensive value compares with the league average after adjusting for park effects. League-average is always 100. Therefore, a wRC+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 wRC+ would be 20-percent below average.

With Durham last season, Shenton appeared in 50 games at first base and another 31 at third base. The right-handed hitter also started eight contests at first base with Tampa Bay. Keith Law of The Athletic suggested over the summer the 26-year-old Shenton is a below-average glove at both corner infield spots, who may carve out a niche with a team thanks to his power potential.

First base

We covered eight possibilities shortly after hot stove season began. Free agents Justin Turner and Pete Alonso, Orioles teammates Ryan O’Hearn and Ryan Mountcastle, plus Luis Arráez of the Padres were on our list.

Turner, acquired by the Mariners in July, delivered value with his bat. But Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times noted last month that the team also appreciated the 16-year veteran’s clubhouse presence and willingness to assist lesser-experienced hitters.

As for Alonso, next name…

Others may see it differently. But to me, O’Hearn profiles similarly to current Mariner Luke Raley. Both are left-handed hitters capable of playing first base and in the outfield. As for the right-handed Mountcastle, he might fit best in a first base platoon.

In theory, Arráez’s bat should be productive at T-Mobile Park. But Statcast’s OAA rates the three-time batting champion as one of baseball’s worst defenders since 2019.

Outs Above Average (OAA) is a range-based metric that shows how many outs a player has saved. League-average is always ZERO. Source: Baseball Savant

A first baseman we profiled separately this offseason is Boston’s Triston Casas. The 24-year-old has experienced some challenges. But he’s young enough to overcome them and thrive as a major-leaguer.

Now, let’s pivot to names we haven’t considered this offseason.

A player currently with a frequent Mariners trade partner, who’s been rumored to be available for quite some time is Yandy Díaz of the Rays. I used to be higher on Díaz. But my enthusiasm has somewhat diminished after the 33-year-old produced a wRC+ ten points below his career average. Furthermore, he demonstrated below-average range at first base for a second consecutive season. Are we witnessing the beginning of age-related regression?

San Francisco’s LaMonte Wade Jr. is often-mentioned in speculation, too. Wade boasts a robust .376 OBP and 120 wRC+ over the past two seasons. But the left-handed hitter lacks extra-base power, is slow-footed, and is probably best-suited to serve as part of a platoon. Not only that, availability has been an issue for the 30-year-old. Dating back to the 2021 season, he’s averaged 110 games annually.

A newcomer to our hot stove gossip is Detroit’s Spencer Torkelson. Divish’s teammate at the Times, Adam Jude, recently suggested Torkelson and several others as potential trade targets. Jude also mentioned free agents to consider. Many of whom we’ll be covering.

Torkelson was a starter in 2023. But last season, the first overall pick of the 2020 draft struggled so much he was assigned to Class-AAA Toledo in early June. Still, I can think of two reasons that might lead an optimist to view the right-handed hitter as a potential fit with the Mariners.

When Torkelson returned to the Tigers in early August, he delivered a .248/.338/.444 slash-line with six doubles and six home runs and a 125 wRC+ in 150 plate appearances. Yes, it’s a small sample, which shouldn’t be given too much credence. But the late-season performance of the 25-year-old was impressive nonetheless.

And then there are Torkelson’s home and away power numbers. The Arizona State alum has a .360 SLG in 720 career plate appearances at Detroit’s Comerica Park. Conversely, he’s produced a .422 SLG in 749 plate confrontations on the road. There’s also a similar disparity with his home run production.

At home, Torkelson has a 2.8-percent home run rate over the past three seasons - the MLB average was three-percent. Away from the Motor City, his bat yielded a 3.9-percent rate. A relevant consideration since Statcast Park Factors rates the Tigers’ home field as noticeably less conducive to home run production than Seattle’s T-Mobile Park.

There was a time when free agent J.D. Davis intrigued me. Particularly, after he produced an impressive .268 AVG/.352 OBP/.443 SLG from 2019 to 2023 with the Mets and Giants. But alas, my interest has waned. The 31-year-old fell on hard times last year posting an 86 wRC+ in 157 plate appearances with the A’s and Yankees.

Mark Cahna is an intriguing idea, although he wasn’t a favorite of Mrs. A’s. He’s entering his age-36 season and doesn’t have much pop. However, the right-handed hitting veteran had a .356 OBP over the last three seasons. Perhaps the aging Cal product would benefit from being in a platoon arrangement with a lefty bat. Dating back to 2022, Canha has a 120 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. That said, he’s also been pretty good against righty hurlers (111 wRC+).

Other available names include Gavin Sheets and Connor Joe. But both delivered suboptimal production last season, which aligned with their career numbers. So, let’s move on.

Second base

Another current Tampa Bay player mentioned by Jude, who’s coveted by some Mariners fans, is Brandon Lowe. When healthy, Lowe is a strong offensive performer with a career 126 wRC+ in over 2,400 plate appearances. However, his career-high for games played in a season was 149 in 2021. Since then, the 30-year-old has averaged 94 contests annually.

Over the last three years, Lowe has landed on the IL with back issues on three separate occasions. The Suffolk, Virginia native has also missed time due to knee, oblique, and arm injuries during this timeframe. Considering his injury history, this risk-averse blogger believes Lowe wouldn’t be an ideal match with the Mariners.

Free agent Brendan Rodgers also appeared in the Times article. The third-overall draft pick in 2015, Rodgers experienced extreme home and away splits as a member of the Rockies. In Denver, the 28-year-old slashed .306/.361/.465. However, he was limited to .227/.272/.356 away from the Mile High City. Further hamstringing the right-handed hitter’s productivity, difficulties against righties during his career (.677 OPS). Meanwhile, Rodgers was much better against southpaws (.842 OPS).

We should also take time to discuss Ha-Seong Kim, who spent the last four seasons with the Padres, and Hyeseong Kim of Korea’s KBO league.

In 1,976 MLB plate appearances, Ha-Seong has been an average-ish run producer (101 wRC+). However, the OAA of the 29-year-old at second base and shortstop over the past three seasons were both top-15. Not only that, his 28.3 feet-per-second sprint speed was top-50 among 174 runners with at least 150 competitive runs. Unfortunately, an injury suffered last season provides reason to pause.

At least it does for me.

Kim suffered a slightly torn labrum in the shoulder of his throwing arm and subsequently underwent surgery. He’s expected to miss the first month of the season, which doesn’t sound too bad. But a lingering shoulder issue would be problematic for a player whose arm strength ranked 17th among 183 middle-infielders and third basemen. Especially when a significant portion of his value comes from his top-shelf defense.

As for Hyeseong Kim, it’s tough to tell how his transition from KBO to MLB might go. One factor in his favor; he turns 26 at the end of this month. The South Korean has a reputation of being a plus-defender with above-average speed. He also boasts a 16.3-percent strikeout rate in over 3,400 plate appearances.

How much this matters, I don’t know. But it’s at least worth noting that Ha-Seong Kim had a career .866 OPS in Korea before becoming a Padre. Hyeseong Kim’s OPS is exactly 100 points lower.

Third base

In early November, we talked about three young third basemen I liked. They were Mark Vientos of the Mets, Baltimore’s Jordan Westburg, and Joey Ortiz of the Brewers. It’s plausible their respective teams have no interest in moving them. But it’s hot stove season, so we discussed.

Vientos demonstrated tremendous power during his first full big-league season. But his minus-6 OAA suggests he was a suboptimal third base defender. Furthermore, there was a lot of swing and miss in his game (29.7-percent strikeout rate).

Conversely, Westburg’s five OAA was ninth-best among third basemen, just behind Rojas. The 25-year-old produced an outstanding 125 wRC+ last season, although his home and away splits caught my eye.

At Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Westburg delivered an .893 OPS. On the road, it was a below-average .698. Maybe this gap is a nothing-burger and simply the randomness of baseball at work. But it’s a nugget worth mentioning.

Ortiz had a 104 wRC+ and an above-average .329 OBP during his first full season in the majors. Defensively, the 26-year-old tied with Matt Chapman for most OAA among third basemen.

When Alec Bohm entered the rumor mill in mid-November, we took a long look at the 2024 All-Star. There’s a lot to like about the Philadelphia third baseman. Still, it’s unclear whether his unusually good defensive showing in 2024 becomes the new norm or he regresses back to being a below-average third base defender. The Nebraska native’s emotional maturity has also been questioned by some long-time observers of the Phillies.

Jude also presented free agent Yoán Moncada and Brett Baty of the Mets as possibilities for Seattle’s hot corner.

A spate of injuries limited the once-promising Moncada to 208 games since the beginning of the 2022 campaign. Maladies sidelining the 29-year-old included hip, back, hamstring, and oblique problems. During this three-season stretch, Moncada delivered a subpar .236 AVG/.291 OBP/.387 SLG with an 88 wRC+. The Cuban also had an unappealing 27.8-percent strikeout rate.

I watch a decent amount of Mets games each year and know SNY analyst and former MVP Keith Hernandez has praised Baty’s swing in the past. However, the Texan had a .217 AVG/.285 OBP/.324 SLG and 72 wRC+ in 560 plate appearances over the past two seasons. That’s a bit unsettling, as is a 27-percent strikeout rate.

It’s important to note Baty has struck out at a relatively high rate in the minors, too. In 1,423 minor-league plate appearances over the last five years, the 25-year-old has a 24.8-percent strikeout rate. How this translates to MLB is unclear. But it doesn’t seem encouraging - even if Keith likes Baty’s swing.

And finally, Alex Bregman.

Eh, just kidding.

My Oh My…