Should Julio Rodríguez change positions?

Would moving Julio to a corner outfield spot benefit the Mariners long-term?

John Hefti / AP Images

Julio Rodríguez hasn’t missed a lot of time due to injuries since his big-league debut in 2022. But recent news made by an AL West rival made me wonder. Should the Mariners consider moving Rodríguez out of center field to preserve his body as he ages?

As absurd as the notion of shifting Rodríguez to a corner outfield spot may seem, the thought crept into my pea-brain when the Angels recently announced long-time center fielder Mike Trout will play right field this year. The rationale behind the move? Mitigate wear and tear on the future Hall of Famer.

A review of Trout’s availability history reveals that he was a durable performer early in his career. In his first four full MLB seasons (2013-16), the three-time AL MVP averaged 157 games annually. Since then, he’s appeared in 140 games just once and that was nearly seven years ago.

Mike Trout Games Played

2011 (40)
2012 (139)
2013 (157)
2014 (157)
2015 (159)
2016 (159)
2017 (114)
2018 (140)
2019 (134)
2021 (36)
2022 (119)
2023 (82)
2024 (29)

More recently, Trout’s health-related absences have become increasingly frequent. Over the last four years, he’s averaged just 67 games-a-year. This shortfall in availability makes it easy to understand why the Halos are moving the New Jersey native out of center field. That said, this nerd wonders why it took so long for the organization to choose this strategy.

Trout’s decreased readiness followed a three-year stretch when he was second on the leaderboard for time in center field. Between 2014 and 2016, only Pittsburgh’s Andrew McCutchen registered more center field innings than Anaheim’s nine-time Silver Slugger.

Most Center Field Innings (2014-16)

Andrew McCutchen (3978.2)
Mike Trout (3937)
Adam Jones (3837)
Jacoby Ellsbury (3402.1)
Dexter Fowler (3310.2)
Marcell Ozuna (3199.2)
Leonys Martín (3195.2)
Billy Hamilton (3117.1)
Denard Span (3017)
Carlos Gómez (2934.1)

Did a heavy center field workload early in his career contribute to Trout’s current availability challenges? Impossible to know. Although, the Angels moving the 11-time All-Star to a position viewed as less demanding suggests the possibility of a correlation.

At this point, some of you are probably wondering how anything I’ve mentioned applies to Rodríguez. After all, he’s only 24-years-old and an impressive physical specimen. True. But the same could’ve been said about Trout when he was 24 in 2016, which was the last time he appeared in 150-plus games.

And just like a young Mike Trout, Rodríguez has played a ton of center field early in his career. Dating back to his MLB debut, he’s accrued more center field innings than any player.

Most Center Field Innings (2022-24)

Julio Rodríguez (3602.1)
Cedric Mullins (3261.2)
Leody Taveras (3219)
Michael Harris II (3186.2)
Trent Grisham (2904.1)
Luis Robert Jr. (2817)
Michael A. Taylor (2695)
Jose Siri (2633.1)
Brandon Nimmo (2593)
Myles Straw (2557.2)

It’s worth noting Rodríguez’s innings tally is about 300 fewer than what Trout accumulated during the three-season span of 2014 to 2016. The reason for the difference? Injuries.

Julio Rodríguez Lost Injury Time (Days)

2022 - Wrist (15)
2022 - Lower back (13)
2024 - High ankle sprain (19)

Source: Baseball Prospectus

Granted, just one of Rodríguez’s three IL stints is undeniably attributable to playing in the field. His wrist injury was the result of being hit by a pitch in late July, 2022. As for the lower back strain experienced later the same season, the eventual AL Rookie of the Year reported the issue as he jogged out to his position during a game.

This brings us to Rodríguez’s high ankle sprain, which occurred as he crashed into the outfield wall attempting to catch a ball hit by Houston’s Yordan Alvarez.

Video: Julio Rodríguez crashes into OF wall

Despite everything presented so far, I suspect a large portion of Mariners fans will rail against moving Rodríguez to a corner outfield spot. Their first counterpoint may be his high ankle sprain wasn’t center field specific. Any outfielder could suffer a similar injury from running into a wall.

The same fans may also correctly call attention to Rodríguez’s ability to deliver elite-level defense, which is a key component to his overall value to the Mariners. The All-Star’s 28 OAA dating back to the 2022 campaign ranks fourth among center fielders.

Highest Center Field OAA (2022-24)

Jose Siri (40)
Brenton Doyle (31)
Jake Meyers (30)
Julio Rodríguez (28)
Harrison Bader (26)
Trent Grisham (26)
Kevin Kiermaier (25)
Michael A. Taylor (25)
Kyle Isbel (23)

Outs Above Average (OAA) is a range-based metric that quantifies how many outs a defender has saved compared to the average player. League-average is always ZERO. Source: Baseball Savant

The same cannot be said about Trout’s defense. During the first three seasons Statcast tracked OAA (2016-18), the former first rounder accumulated minus-1 OAA, which suggests average-ish range.

Obviously, Rodríguez’s defensive acumen would be an important factor if the Mariners were going to weigh the merits of moving him to a corner outfield position. Even though the Dominican Republic native’s outstanding glove work should translate well to either left field or right field, finding a satisfactory defensive replacement to play center field would be crucial.

And that’s where Víctor Robles enters the picture.

Robles covered center field during Rodríguez’s injury-related absence last July and August. Assuming the Mariners actually wanted to move Rodríguez, the team would have to believe Robles could provide acceptable defense moving forward.

If the year was 2019, confidence in Robles being a suitable defensive substitute for Rodríguez would be high. During his first full big-league season, he led all center fielders with 23 OAA. Unfortunately, it’s been an uneven road for the 27-year-old ever since.

Victor Robles Center Field OAA

2018 (2)
2019 (23)
2021 (2)
2022 (6)
2023 (-3)
2024 (-2)

As you review the preceding numbers, please note OAA is a cumulative stat. Therefore, reduced playing time in 2021-22 limited Robles’ opportunity to amass OAA, although he did manage to be top-15 in 2022 despite starting in center field just 110 times. Having said that, it’s important to acknowledge the eight-year veteran’s OAA has fallen into the negative column over the last two years.

Perhaps playing center field on a full-time basis could rekindle Robles’ defensive mastery in the same way that becoming a regular in Seattle’s lineup super-charged his production at the plate in 2024. Then again, that may be a pipe dream.

It’s possible that Robles may never be a top-shelf center field defender again. And let’s not forget that it’s unclear whether the 2019 World Series champion can come anywhere close to last year’s stellar offensive performance during the upcoming season.

Still, assume for a moment that Robles demonstrates he can be an elite center fielder and deliver average-or-better offensive value this year. What would be the rationale to have Rodríguez remain in center field if changing positions could potentially enhance his near- and long-term availability?

People smarter than me may offer baseball-related reasons to keep Rodríguez in center field, if Robles were to meet the standards just suggested. But this dumb blogger can’t come up with any.

To be clear, I don’t expect the Mariners to move Rodríguez out of center field this year or in the near future. But that doesn’t mean a potential position change shouldn’t at least be a planning factor for the organization. Ultimately, we’re talking about the face of the franchise.

Consider this. How many times have you heard or read during the offseason and Spring Training that the Mariners’ lineup will go as Julio goes? If this is truly the case, why not at least consider relocating him to a less demanding defensive position to keep his bat available?

The Angels made the move with Trout a few years too late. It would be a shame if the Mariners experienced a similar lapse in judgement with their biggest star.

My Oh My…