Rounding Out the Numbers: Hello August

Off-day reflections from the Consigliere.

Ryan Sun / AP Images

It’s been a while since I published a “Rounding Out the Numbers” edition of the newsletter. An Mariners off-day is a good opportunity to do just that. Let’s begin our conversation with a rookie who’s made an immediate impact since joining the team a little over two weeks ago.

Hello Cade Marlowe!

When Jarred Kelenic went to the IL on July 20, the Mariners turned to prospect Cade Marlowe. So far, Seattle’s 20th round pick in 2019 has done a superb job of subbing for Kelenic both in the lineup and in left field.

That’s right, I said 20th round pick.

Marlowe’s MLB stats
14 games
42 PA
2 doubles
2 HR
19 K%
14.3 BB%
.278 AVG
.381 OBP
.556 SLG
.397 wOBA
161 wRC+

Marlowe quickly elevated his status with Mariners fans by hitting a go-ahead, ninth-inning grand slam against the Angels on August 3. Perhaps the most impressive part of the 26-year-old’s big shot was his ability to square-up a 100 MPH fastball after falling behind 0-2 in the count.

VIDEO: Cade Marlowe’s grand slam

Yes, Marlowe’s MLB career is a teeny sample size. But who cares?

In his short time with the Mariners, Marlowe has demonstrated poise, superb plate discipline, and athleticism. The Tifton, Georgia native is exactly what his team needed with Kelenic shelved until early September, if not for the entire season.

Speaking of 0-2 home runs

As fun as Marlowe’s grand slam was last week, I was a bit surprised Angels closer Carlos Estévez challenged the rookie with a hittable pitch on an 0-2 count. Especially with the bases loaded.

It turns out the number of home runs allowed on 0-2 counts has been on the rise in recent years. This year’s current tally (166) already exceeds the totals of the 2008, 2009, and 2010 campaigns.

HR’s Allowed on 0-2 Count
2008 - 150
2009 - 161
2010 - 158
2011 - 173
2012 - 192
2013 - 160
2014 - 179
2015 - 210
2016 - 214
2017 - 227
2018 - 241
2019 - 297
2021 - 282
2022 - 212
2023 - 166

Geno’s summer surge

In mid-July, we discussed whether the season-long power outage affecting third baseman Eugenio Suárez might be over. Since then, Suárez has continued to thrive. The following illustrates the massive improvement in productivity from the Venezuelan in July and August. Particularly, in the slugging department.

As with Marlowe, we’re staring at a relatively small sample. Still, the return of Suárez’s power bat is a welcome shot in the arm for an offense trying to propel the Mariners into the postseason for a second consecutive year.

Luis and the Homers

Sounds like a rock band. Unfortunately, it’s not. I’m referring to the high number of home runs Mariners ace Luis Castillo has surrendered this season.

Over the weekend, Castillo allowed three home runs in an outing for the second time this year. Furthermore, it was his eighth multi-home run game. Only one pitcher has experienced more in 2023.

Most Multi-HR Games
Lance Lynn - 9
Luis Castillo - 8
Tyler Wells - 8
Jordan Lyles - 8
Dean Kremer - 8
Patrick Corbin - 8
Luke Weaver - 7
Joe Ryan - 7
Lucas Giolito - 7
Zack Greinke - 7

All told, opponents have hit 22 round-trippers off Castillo in 23 starts this season. It’s the most the Dominican Republic native has allowed since 2019 when he surrendered the same number. His career-high (28) was set in 2018.

Think the bats enjoy the warm weather?

This segment probably won’t change minds on a surprisingly divisive topic, which is fine. But I’m going to share it anyway because it’s relevant. What am I referring to?

The potential effect of colder weather on the Mariners’ production numbers at T-Mobile Park. For the following comparison, I drew the game-time temperature line at 70 degrees. Yes, it’s a bit arbitrary.

As you can see, Mariner hitters delivered noticeably better results when the temps were at-or-above 70 degrees. It’s worth noting the average temperature of the 35 games in the “69 & below” category was basically 55 degrees.

Fun fact: The Mariners have played an MLB-leading 24 games with a starting time temperature under 55 degrees this season. Teams trailing directly behind were the Guardians, (23), Red Sox, (21), Cubs (15), Twins (14) and White Sox (11).

Fun fact II: Seventeen of the Mariners’ 24 “cold weather” games this season were played at T-Mobile Park. That’s the highest number of under-55-degree home games in MLB. It’s also the most at Seattle’s home field since its first full season in 2000.

M’s Home Games with Temp Under 55 Degrees
2023 - 17
2011 - 16
2008 - 14
2022 - 13
2010 - 12
2002 - 11
2013 - 10
2007 - 10
2018 - 8
2019 - 8
2021 - 8
2009 - 8

For anyone wondering, the 116-win 2001 Mariners played five games with temps under 55 degrees at T-Mobile Park (three more on the road).

The sliver of evidence provided suggests the Mariners’ offense pays a price when the temperatures are chilly. Furthermore, the numbers also demonstrate this year’s team has dealt with colder temps a bit more often than other teams.

Still, I’m not advocating cold weather was the primary reason Seattle’s offense was sluggish in the early months of the season. The Mariners needed to add at least one more bat in the offseason - they didn’t. Not only that, several key hitters underperformed expectations until recently.

Lethal weapons

When it comes to bringing the heat, Mariners starters are among the best at doing so.

At 94.7 MPH, Seattle’s rotation has the second-highest average fastball velocity in the majors trailing only Miami (94.8 MPH). Statcast defines fastballs as four-seamers, sinkers/two-seamers, and cutters.

Having said that, it’s important to recognize Seattle’s starting staff isn’t just throwing the ball hard. Its fastballs have been extremely effective at minimizing hitter success.

Opponent Stats vs Rotation’s Fastballs
.241 AVG (1st in MLB)
.302 OBP (1st)
.423 SLG (2nd)
.314 wOBA (1st)
23.3 SO% (2nd)

Similarly, Seattle’s bullpen has been reaping the benefits of their breaking balls (sweepers, sliders, curve balls).

Opponent Stats vs Bullpen’s Breaking Balls
.195 AVG (2nd in MLB)
.245 OBP (4th)
.306 SLG (2nd)
.243 wOBA (2nd)
36.8 SO% (1st)

I’m not a pitching expert. But I know enough to say it takes more than one good pitch to get outs in the big leagues. Still, having a lethal weapon in the arsenal must be a good first step towards building success on the mound.

Dynamic duo behind the plate

Speaking of being destructive, the bats of catchers Cal Raleigh and Tom Murphy have become a formidable pairing.

Offensive Stats of M’s Catchers
25 doubles (4th in MLB)
20 HR (3rd)
.251 AVG (10th)
.326 OBP (7th)
.470 SLG (4th)
.341 wOBA (3rd)
122 wRC+ (3rd)

With Murphy leading the team with a 148 wRC+ in 151 plate appearances, a segment of Mariners fans has been lobbying for the 32-year-old to be in the lineup more often. An understandable sentiment, although I trust manager Scott Servais and his staff to determine the best way to maximize the strengths of Raleigh and Murphy.

After all, having two productive, healthy catchers is a good thing - especially as the Mariners make their postseason push.

What a difference a year makes, or not

For all the hand-wringing about the Mariners’ sluggish start, the team has the same record it did at the same point of the 2022 season.

M’s Record Through 112 Games
2022 (60-52)
2023 (60-52)

Does this mean Servais’ crew wins 90 games, as they did last year and in 2021?

Perhaps, but it’s plausible the Mariners unexpectedly crater. Then again, the team could surge and notch more victories than the last two years.

Regardless of how many wins the Mariners accrue between now and October 1, the regular season is setting up to have a thrilling conclusion in the Emerald City.

I’m grateful I’ll get to witness it unfold.

My Oh My…