About Eugenio Suárez's power outage
About Eugenio Suárez's power outage
If the Mariners are going to make a postseason push, the power bat of Eugenio Suárez must reappear.
Not long ago, I suggested the remedy to the Mariners’ offensive woes was already on the roster. One of those players I was referring to was Eugenio Suárez.
Suárez, the pleasant surprise of the 2022 campaign, has experienced significant regression this year. To put it plainly, Seattle’s slugging third baseman hasn’t been slugging.
Despite Suárez’s suboptimal season numbers, there are statistical reasons to be optimistic about his outlook for the remainder of this season.
Strikeouts are down
The Mariners’ reputation for striking out a lot is well-deserved. Having said that, Suárez has actually struck out less often in 2023 than he did last year.
Strikeout Rates
2022: 31.2%
2023: 28.8%
Don’t get me wrong. Suárez strikes out way more than the average MLB hitter (22.7%). However, he’s managed to be a productive hitter despite a 26.7% career strikeout rate.
Still drawing walks
This season, only J.P. Crawford (14.5%) has a higher walk rate on the Mariners than Suárez. Not only that, the one-time All-Star’s walk percentage ranks 42nd among 149 qualified MLB hitters.
Walk Rates
2022: 11.6%
2023: 10.7%
Hard contact is up
When Suárez makes contact, his hard-hit rate is better than average (39.6%). In fact, it’s up three-percent compared to 2022.
Hard-hit Rates
2022: 43.5%
2023: 46.5%
But barrels are down
Despite making loud contact more frequently in 2023, Suárez hasn’t been barreling as many balls.
Barrel Rates
2022: 14.8%
2023: 12.7%
To be clear, a 12.7% barrel rate is well above what the league is doing (8.2%). But a two-percent dip is nothing to scoff at. Especially when you consider the MLB SLG on barreled balls is 2.423.
That’s right, 2.423.
Less line drive success
Generally, line drives deliver great outcomes for hitters. The league has a .906 SLG on them this season. In Suárez’s case, his line drive rate is up four-percent over last year. Good news, right?
Not as much as you’d think. Line drives haven’t yielded the results you might expect from Suárez. The 32-year-old’s SLG is way below this year’s MLB average and what he produced in 2022.
Same with fly balls
Suárez’s fly ball rate is down a little over two-percent from last year. In and of itself, that might not be a big deal. However, his home run/fly ball rate and SLG are both markedly down compared to 2022. That is a big deal.
Granted, Suárez’s .896 SLG on fly balls is better than the MLB average (.828). But the drop-off from 2022 is hard to overlook. Particularly when discussing a power hitter who isn’t hitting for as much power as expected.
When we focus solely on well-struck fly balls, it’s clear Suárez hasn’t enjoyed as much success as you might expect.
In 2022, Suárez had a 56.5% hard-hit rate on fly balls. This year, the Venezuelan is slightly better (58.3%). Yet, the results haven’t been there him.
Suárez‘S SLG on hard-hit fly balls is down over 550 points from last year.
Hard-hit fly ball SLG
2022: 1.893
2023: 1.304
We see a similar trend with barreled fly balls. Suárez had a 2.935 SLG in 2022. This year, it’s down to 2.348. On the surface, a 2.348 SLG sounds great until you realize the league average is nearly 300 points higher (2.627).
Taking it a step further, I find it striking that Suárez already has made more outs on barreled fly balls this season than he did in 2022.
Barreled fly ball outs
2022: 8
2023: 9
Since it’s a small number, I compiled a video of the nine instances a barreled fly ball by Suárez was converted into an out. Some were hit to the wrong part of the park or in the wrong park altogether. Others were the result of great defense.
For what it’s worth, the first out on the reel was in Cleveland. It would’ve been a home run in 11 of 30 venues, including T-Mobile Park. And you can only tip your cap to Miami’s Jesús Sánchez for robbing Suárez of a potential walk-off grand slam on June 14.
Things have been better lately
To me, Suárez is an ideal candidate to go on a tear. He’s striking out less often than last year and still taking walks. More importantly, he’s made a ton of quality contact without proportional results to show for it. But that appears to be changing in July.
Perhaps the two-run home run hit by Suárez last night is a sign of what’s to come. After all, his four home runs through July 17 matches the combined tally from March, April, and May.
Yes, in terms of plate appearances, July is a relatively small sample compared to other months. That said, Suárez‘s recent uptick in productivity is a welcome sight and potentially sustainable.
Such a development would be a good news story for a Mariners team desperately needing to generate positive momentum.
My Oh My…