I’ve never understood firing the manager “because something had to change,” especially in the absence of evidence that he’s hurting the team. It’s an old-school strategy in a new-school era. It’s like saying “We’re not hiring well on grass; let’s tear it out, replace it with AstroTurf, and see if that sparks anything.”
Great comparison of past to present to explain current state of the M's.
Unfortunately it may predict M's status-quo future as profitable, interesting, but forever 2nd tier team.
Rowland-Smith, Shannon Dreyer both commented that the timing of Servais' firing is weird.
Before reading this post, I felt the hand of Stanton et al was behind the firing.
Looking at the 2024 attendance drop, now I'm sure Stanton called the shot.
Remember how quick after the 2023 season, M's announced that due to Comcast RSN price hike, the M's had to reduce off-season FA spend?
As usual, '24 FAs were M's typical 2nd tier assemblage of fading vets, platoon hitters and "lotto tickets", like projecting Garver's part-time 100 game avg. to 162 games. No tier 1's like Soto, Chapman etc.
"Bottom line 1st, everything else not 1st. "
"John Stanton, what does the M's payroll budget look like in 2025? Please don't give me the arrogant non-answer you gave Paul Silvi in the '24 pre-season interview when he inquired about low FA spend"
Long Time Commitment to Mediocrity:
The comparative W/L parity between Pinella/Servais is as close as you can get to what I believe is the M's business model: Profit first, looking like you're trying to win 2nd, actually committing resources to win, way behind 1 & 2.
A major "tell" that M's are less than committed to winning is the superstars on the Pinella list:
Griffey Jr., Johnson, ARod, also Ichiro - all bonafide superstars - ALL Wanted Out of Seattle!
They escaped to 1st tier & upcoming teams dedicated to win, backed by budget, not hype.
When today's M's young starters go to NY, TX, Dodgers, Philly etc, they realize these teams pay real money for competitive lineups. They'll probably follow the former M's superstars out of town.
Will 2024 decline in avg. attendance teach John Stanton/ownership W/L "results still matter..." to their bottom line?
I think not, because of comparison of how other teams spend - Rangers w/Seager-Semian, Yanks for FA-to-be Soto, Dodgers, etc.
This article documents an M's 40+ year business model has consistently delivered middle of pack W/L results.
What incentive does Stanton et al have to invest & risk more in an already profitable business?
You're making me think too much Kevin! ;-)) but interesting questions deserve answers!
The 4th superstar, Ichiro left in the middle of 2012 - from pretender to perennial contender. He maintained excellence playing year-after-year on non or marginal contenders 'til he couldn't take it. Yet another established superstar HOF wants OUT of M's.
Felix was the only bonafide M's superstar left in 2013. Ken Rosenthal was busy every year creating "Felix to Yanks" rumors. The M's HAD to keep Felix, the last remaining superstar. They locked him into what was then the highest annual $ for a pitcher - butts in seats!!!
Felix is a guy who came to the U.S. through the Aquasox, knew he was beloved by Seattle. M's FOR ONCE beat top tier teams to the spending punch.
The term "velvet coffin" is used for guys locked into incredibly rich contracts on teams unlikely to contend. Felix has some kind of record for least supporting runs by M's.
Long live King Felix!
---> Julio and the "ARod Syndrome" (or pre-paying what he'll hopefully deserve??)
Julio's (and to a lesser extent, Evan White's) contracts are what I'd call the "ARod syndrome". ARod was a "can't miss" "transformative player" at a premium position.
"Can't miss" players miss, for lots of reasons. Think Kyle Lewis & Evan White.
Still, expert projections of players & contract risks are necessary to build contenders.
ARod didn't miss. He came, he saw, he conquered. A true transformational player worth building a franchise around, left Seattle after the M's were outbid. M's know if Julio becomes a superstar like ARod & reaches free agency, a top-tier team will make a top-tier offer, which 2nd tier M's rarely match.
The M's took a calculated risk "pre-paying" for Julio's "can't miss" potential. To a lesser extent, they did this w/White and lost when their Gold Glove rookie was lost to injury.
If M's can predict the 2nd coming of ARod, this guaranteed multi-yr "pre-pay" is a great way to retain young high WAR guys at a reasonable price. "Can't miss" is a phrase, not proven until life plays out. The part I don't agree with is "Julio superstar".
Superstar buzz puts butts in seats and sells merch - good for bottom line.
IMO "superstar" is a time-based title through several seasons of superstar performance. Statistically, you need 3 data points moving in the same direction to even call it a "trend".
If each data point is a season, we don't yet have 3 complete seasons.
(not trying to say "trend" = superstar, just pointing out how much hype M's trying to sell)
The M's had no superstars after Felix. The M's anointed Julio "superstar" his rookie year. M's paid hype machines (AM710 etc) echo this. ROY does not equal "superstar". ROY + Dusty Baker's 2023 All Star courtesy invite do not equal "superstar". The label came way too early.. At this point in his career it creates unreasonable expectations for a young guy with 5-tool potential who still has lots to figure out. Swinging out of his cleats at stuff in the next zip code, I assume trying to hit dingers?
M's time honored "tradition" is to sign promising young hitters, bring them up too early: Ackley, Zunino, Moore?, Raleigh (was going down 'til Murphy injury), Kelenic?.
In a repeating pattern, their first MLB season is promising. After that, MLB pitchers invariably find their "holes", their hitting declines & rarely recovers. M's promote too soon and don't have the know how to help them counter as MLB pitching adjusts to them.
Kevin, given Julio's 2024 results to date, what do you think?
Going AA-to-MLB, did it take MLB pitchers longer to find Julio's holes due to his higher talent?
If I could wave a wand to teach Julio ONE thing in '24, it would be, "take your walks".
During Julio's 1st Sunday AB, they flashed a factoid that Fri & Sat, Julio took 2 walks in back to back games. That Sunday AB he was on a 3-1 count, swung at at least 2 balls, eventually struck out.
"If you don't learn to take your walks, pitchers know they can get you out without throwing strikes." Pray to St. Edgar? ;-)
Great article. But using hitting stats without adjusting for ballpark is always going to lead you to believe that Ms hitters are worse than they actually are.
Regardless of players, cause the manager has to mange the players they have, Lou’s M’s had 3 playoff trips. Plus it’s easy to forget or disregard how moribund the M’s were as a franchise before Lou arrived, they were truly depressing! Be well.
I’ve never understood firing the manager “because something had to change,” especially in the absence of evidence that he’s hurting the team. It’s an old-school strategy in a new-school era. It’s like saying “We’re not hiring well on grass; let’s tear it out, replace it with AstroTurf, and see if that sparks anything.”
** hitting
Great comparison of past to present to explain current state of the M's.
Unfortunately it may predict M's status-quo future as profitable, interesting, but forever 2nd tier team.
Rowland-Smith, Shannon Dreyer both commented that the timing of Servais' firing is weird.
Before reading this post, I felt the hand of Stanton et al was behind the firing.
Looking at the 2024 attendance drop, now I'm sure Stanton called the shot.
Remember how quick after the 2023 season, M's announced that due to Comcast RSN price hike, the M's had to reduce off-season FA spend?
As usual, '24 FAs were M's typical 2nd tier assemblage of fading vets, platoon hitters and "lotto tickets", like projecting Garver's part-time 100 game avg. to 162 games. No tier 1's like Soto, Chapman etc.
"Bottom line 1st, everything else not 1st. "
"John Stanton, what does the M's payroll budget look like in 2025? Please don't give me the arrogant non-answer you gave Paul Silvi in the '24 pre-season interview when he inquired about low FA spend"
Long Time Commitment to Mediocrity:
The comparative W/L parity between Pinella/Servais is as close as you can get to what I believe is the M's business model: Profit first, looking like you're trying to win 2nd, actually committing resources to win, way behind 1 & 2.
A major "tell" that M's are less than committed to winning is the superstars on the Pinella list:
Griffey Jr., Johnson, ARod, also Ichiro - all bonafide superstars - ALL Wanted Out of Seattle!
They escaped to 1st tier & upcoming teams dedicated to win, backed by budget, not hype.
When today's M's young starters go to NY, TX, Dodgers, Philly etc, they realize these teams pay real money for competitive lineups. They'll probably follow the former M's superstars out of town.
Will 2024 decline in avg. attendance teach John Stanton/ownership W/L "results still matter..." to their bottom line?
I think not, because of comparison of how other teams spend - Rangers w/Seager-Semian, Yanks for FA-to-be Soto, Dodgers, etc.
This article documents an M's 40+ year business model has consistently delivered middle of pack W/L results.
What incentive does Stanton et al have to invest & risk more in an already profitable business?
Good point about the superstars wanting out of Seattle…but how about Felix and Julio? Is it simply because the M’s paid them what they deserved?
You're making me think too much Kevin! ;-)) but interesting questions deserve answers!
The 4th superstar, Ichiro left in the middle of 2012 - from pretender to perennial contender. He maintained excellence playing year-after-year on non or marginal contenders 'til he couldn't take it. Yet another established superstar HOF wants OUT of M's.
Felix was the only bonafide M's superstar left in 2013. Ken Rosenthal was busy every year creating "Felix to Yanks" rumors. The M's HAD to keep Felix, the last remaining superstar. They locked him into what was then the highest annual $ for a pitcher - butts in seats!!!
Felix is a guy who came to the U.S. through the Aquasox, knew he was beloved by Seattle. M's FOR ONCE beat top tier teams to the spending punch.
The term "velvet coffin" is used for guys locked into incredibly rich contracts on teams unlikely to contend. Felix has some kind of record for least supporting runs by M's.
Long live King Felix!
---> Julio and the "ARod Syndrome" (or pre-paying what he'll hopefully deserve??)
Julio's (and to a lesser extent, Evan White's) contracts are what I'd call the "ARod syndrome". ARod was a "can't miss" "transformative player" at a premium position.
"Can't miss" players miss, for lots of reasons. Think Kyle Lewis & Evan White.
Still, expert projections of players & contract risks are necessary to build contenders.
ARod didn't miss. He came, he saw, he conquered. A true transformational player worth building a franchise around, left Seattle after the M's were outbid. M's know if Julio becomes a superstar like ARod & reaches free agency, a top-tier team will make a top-tier offer, which 2nd tier M's rarely match.
The M's took a calculated risk "pre-paying" for Julio's "can't miss" potential. To a lesser extent, they did this w/White and lost when their Gold Glove rookie was lost to injury.
If M's can predict the 2nd coming of ARod, this guaranteed multi-yr "pre-pay" is a great way to retain young high WAR guys at a reasonable price. "Can't miss" is a phrase, not proven until life plays out. The part I don't agree with is "Julio superstar".
Superstar buzz puts butts in seats and sells merch - good for bottom line.
IMO "superstar" is a time-based title through several seasons of superstar performance. Statistically, you need 3 data points moving in the same direction to even call it a "trend".
If each data point is a season, we don't yet have 3 complete seasons.
(not trying to say "trend" = superstar, just pointing out how much hype M's trying to sell)
The M's had no superstars after Felix. The M's anointed Julio "superstar" his rookie year. M's paid hype machines (AM710 etc) echo this. ROY does not equal "superstar". ROY + Dusty Baker's 2023 All Star courtesy invite do not equal "superstar". The label came way too early.. At this point in his career it creates unreasonable expectations for a young guy with 5-tool potential who still has lots to figure out. Swinging out of his cleats at stuff in the next zip code, I assume trying to hit dingers?
M's time honored "tradition" is to sign promising young hitters, bring them up too early: Ackley, Zunino, Moore?, Raleigh (was going down 'til Murphy injury), Kelenic?.
In a repeating pattern, their first MLB season is promising. After that, MLB pitchers invariably find their "holes", their hitting declines & rarely recovers. M's promote too soon and don't have the know how to help them counter as MLB pitching adjusts to them.
Kevin, given Julio's 2024 results to date, what do you think?
Going AA-to-MLB, did it take MLB pitchers longer to find Julio's holes due to his higher talent?
If I could wave a wand to teach Julio ONE thing in '24, it would be, "take your walks".
During Julio's 1st Sunday AB, they flashed a factoid that Fri & Sat, Julio took 2 walks in back to back games. That Sunday AB he was on a 3-1 count, swung at at least 2 balls, eventually struck out.
"If you don't learn to take your walks, pitchers know they can get you out without throwing strikes." Pray to St. Edgar? ;-)
Great article. But using hitting stats without adjusting for ballpark is always going to lead you to believe that Ms hitters are worse than they actually are.
Not sure what stat you’re referring to, but M’s hitters are collectively bad.
Regardless of players, cause the manager has to mange the players they have, Lou’s M’s had 3 playoff trips. Plus it’s easy to forget or disregard how moribund the M’s were as a franchise before Lou arrived, they were truly depressing! Be well.