Let’s talk position player needs

Seattle is expected to lose three starting position players to free agency without clear-cut replacements in place.

Liv Lyons / AP Images

Even though the Mariners reached the ALCS, it’s important to recognize where the roster finished isn’t where it’ll begin next year. Likely free agent position players include Josh Naylor, Jorge Polanco, Eugenio Suárez, and Mitch Garver. And let’s not overlook the potential impact arbitration may have.

Outfielders Randy Arozarena and Luke Raley are both arbitration eligible. Considering Arozarena projects to earn a $7 million raise and Raley is coming off a down campaign, it’s possible neither is on Seattle’s Opening Day roster in 2026.

With so many pieces potentially in motion, let’s consider several position groups that may need to be addressed in the offseason. First up, a spot the Mariners upgraded with a big trade in July.

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First base: For the first four months of the season, position was covered by Rowdy Tellez, Donovan Solano, Raley, and Dylan Moore until Naylor’s arrival on July 25. The foursome combined for an average-ish 104 wRC+.

Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) quantifies how a hitter’s total offensive value compares with the league average after adjusting for park effects. League-average is always 100. Therefore, a wRC+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 wRC+ would be 20-percent below average.

Thanks to Naylor, Seattle’s first base wRC+ rose to sixth best in baseball for the final nine weeks of the 2025 campaign. The conventional stats also looked way better.

Assuming Naylor becomes a free agent, only Raley will remain from this year’s first base contingent. Tellez, Solano, and Moore were released during the season. Moreover, top first base prospect Tyler Locklear was dealt to Arizona in July for Suárez.

It’s also important to note that Raley spent 72 days on the injured list this year and has averaged 105 games annually since the beginning of 2021. And as already noted, the 31-year-old was generally ineffective when available in 2025.

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Second base: Seattle second basemen posted a 10th ranked 99 wRC+, which doesn’t sound so bad. But there are underlying issues worth discussing.

Three players illustrated below with above average production as second basemen - Polanco, Moore, and Miles Mastrobuoni - accounted for 242 plate appearances at the position. But that’s 13 fewer than rookie Cole Young, who got off to a respectable start before seeing his role diminish late in the year.

Defense is another factor to consider. Outs Above Average (OAA), which quantifies how many outs a defender has saved compared to the average player), suggests Young’s range at second base was suboptimal.

M’s OAA at 2B

Ryan Bliss (1)
Miles Mastrobuoni (1)
Dylan Moore (0)
Leo Rivas (0)
Jorge Polanco (minus-1)
Cole Young (minus-9)

Baseball Savant rated Young’s range 45th of 46 qualified second basemen. But to be fair, the Pennsylvania native is a relatively inexperienced professional, who just finished his age-21 season. Remember, he was drafted out of high school just three years ago.

Consider this nugget regarding Young’s second base résumé. He logged 621 innings at the position with Seattle - just 31 frames fewer than his career total as a minor-league second baseman. Furthermore, the North Allegheny High School alum started two more games at shortstop for Class-AAA Tacoma this year than he did at second base (26).

Perhaps the club gives Ryan Bliss a long look in Spring Training. In limited MLB action, Bliss has a 92 wRC+ and boasts above-average speed. He also may be the best defender in the team’s second base stable. That said, health must be a planning factor.

Bliss suffered a torn bicep on April 8, finishing 2025 on the injured list. The 25-year-old began a rehab assignment in late August. But days later, Tim Booth of the Seattle Times reported Bliss suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee, which required surgery.

Another internal option with big-league experience might be switch-hitter Leo Rivas. But based on how the club has utilized him, the 27-year-old appears destined to fill a utility role.

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Third base: Suarez’s departure presents the team with the choice of returning to Ben Williamson or looking elsewhere for a third baseman with MLB experience.

Williamson, who turns 25 this month, produced a 76 wRC+ in 295 plate appearances with the Mariners. His .253 AVG and .294 OBP as a rookie were relatively fine. But his .310 SLG was hard to miss. Only 13 of 308 hitters with 250 plate appearances delivered a lower SLG than the William and Mary product. Oh look, Cole Young was 10th lowest.

This is anecdotal. But my general sense is the fan base isn’t clamoring for a Mariners-Suárez reunion. But as I recently noted, he was a noticeably better run producer (91 wRC+) with Seattle than Williamson was (76 wRC+). As for defense, each had zero OAA at third base.

And before you tell me that your eyeballs say Williamson was a better-than-average defender, I’m just relaying what unbiased metrics suggest about his work in the field. Furthermore, I’m not advocating for Geno’s return nor am I suggesting Williamson isn’t the answer. Regardless, the front office has a lot to consider as it looks for its Opening Day third baseman.

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Right field: A platoon of Víctor Robles and the left-handed bats of Dominic Canzone and/or Raley appears to be the current plan. But I assume the team will seek opportunities to upgrade the position.

A segment of fans probably hopes Robles will repeat the production he delivered to the Mariners last year. Over the final four months of the 2024 season, he posted a .328 AVG, .393 OBP, and .467 SLG with a 155 wRC+. Promising numbers until you consider the rest of his career.

Before coming to Seattle, Robles produced an 80 wRC+ during eight seasons and 1,834 plate appearances as a National. He missed most of 2025 after suffering an early-season shoulder injury, so we’ll ignore that small sample. But ask yourself this. Which stat line do you believe is more insightful regarding the 28-year-old’s potential? Eight years with the Nationals or four months with the Mariners?

As for Canzone, he put up an impressive .304 AVG, .362 OBP, and .488 SLG with a 144 wRC+ in 266 plate appearances following his June call-up from Tacoma. Whether that’s a big enough sample size to generate front office confidence is unknown.

We’ve already discussed Raley. But I will note that he and Robles accumulated zero OAA in right field, while Canzone was a minus-two. Will this be a factor for management? I don’t know, but I thought this metric was worth sharing.

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Designated Hitter: Even if Polanco returns, I view him as a better candidate for the DH spot than second base.

Sure, Polanco could occasionally play in the field. But based on his availability history and what advanced metrics say about his defense, the 12-year veteran makes more sense as a DH. Besides, he was Seattle’s main guy at the position in 2025.

Naturally, next season’s main DH will occasionally step aside when Cal Raleigh needs a break from catching. That said, management could revert to the planning philosophy that was in place prior to Garver’s arrival - DH by committee.

Such a practice can work. But only if there are multiple committee members capable of being run producers. Otherwise, designated hitter becomes a drag on the lineup, as it was for the Mariners several times over the past five seasons.

Mariners DH wRC+ (2021-25)

2021 - 96 (18th in MLB)
2022 - 82 (25th)
2023 - 95 (20th)
2024 - 99 (19th)
2025 - 121 (8th)

Bottom line: It would be disappointing for Seattle to lose the edge it gained at DH in 2025.

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Supporting cast: Who ends up being reserves next year will be influenced by how the team views Canzone, Robles, Raley, Rivas, Young, Bliss, and Mastrobuoni. That said, the team should attempt to raise the floor of the bench over the winter and not just simply rely on players currently on the roster.

As for backup catcher, the Mariners will likely decline the 34-year-old Garver’s $12 million mutual option. And while it’s possible both sides negotiate a new deal for next season, it’s worth noting Seattle has employed a catcher older than Garver just once in the last decade - a 38-year-old Carlos Ruiz in 2017.

I suspect the team looks for someone younger to serve as Raleigh’s understudy.

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The prospects: A potential resource to supplement the roster is Seattle’s deep farm system. Harry Ford, Colt Emerson, and Lazaro Montes have received mention on Mariners Twitter as solutions for big-league roster deficiencies. Perhaps these players, or other minor-leaguers, contribute in 2026. But there are two important factors to consider - youth and inexperience.

Ford, who debuted in September, is 22-years-old and has 469 games as a professional since being drafted 12th overall four years ago. To me, he faces a steeper learning curve as a catcher than other position players. Meanwhile, Emerson is 20 and Montes just turned 21.

Am I suggesting these or other youngsters couldn’t help the Mariners next season? Not exactly. But we should remember it usually takes time for rookies to get accustomed to the majors. Therefore, expectations should be tempered.

Baseball is extremely hard - even for the most talented and promising players.

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Thoughts: This much roster churn means there will be a lot to discuss this offseason, which is fun and awesome. As usual, I’ll be publishing reports on potential trade and free agent candidates for the Mariners. And maybe I’ll also address the current state of the pitching staff in a few days.

Spoiler alert: It needs help.

My Oh My…