Let's talk about Gabe Speier
Let's talk about Gabe Speier
Is Gabe Speier the best lefty reliever in Mariners franchise history?
Not long ago, Tayler Saucedo declared via Twitter that teammate Gabe Speier was “Himmy Neutron.” Initially, I wasn’t clear on what Saucedo meant, although I suspected he was heaping praise on his fellow lefty reliever.
A quick visit to Google confirmed my suspicion. Saucedo was saying Speier is among the best of the best, or something like that. I tend to agree with the Tahoma High School product’s sentiment.
It’s early, but…
Speier has been sensational during the first month of the 2024 campaign. Some may correctly note the sample size is small and that his numbers may regress in the coming months. Fair enough. But compared to 69 left-handed relievers facing at least 25 hitters this season, the 29-year-old is top-10 in multiple categories.
Speier is currently second among lefty relievers with a 37.5-percent strikeout rate, while he ranks eleventh in walk rate. This ideal blend of strikeout ability and pinpoint control helps explain why the Californian boasts the third-best strikeout-to-walk ratio. Possessing superb command of the strike zone is particularly crucial for a late-inning leverage arm, such as Speier.
Potent arsenal
As I routinely note in the Consigliere newsletter, this nerd is not a pitching expert. So, you won’t catch me attempting to explain how Speier is producing the great results we’re witnessing. But that doesn’t mean we can’t at least consider what the numbers say about his repertoire.
To date, 33.3-percent of Speier’s pitches have been four-seam fastballs. It’s been a devastating weapon that’s held opponents to a .117 wOBA - best among 46 left-handed relievers throwing at least 100 pitches and 25 four-seamers.
Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is a sabermetric version of on-base percentage (OBP) that credits hitters for how he reached base rather than treating all on-base events as equals, as OBP does. For instance, a double is more valuable to run production than a single, a home run more than a double, etc. The current MLB-average for wOBA is .313
Speier’s slider is also delivering outstanding results. He’s used it 28.8-percent of the time with hitters producing an even worse .106 wOBA. Only the sliders of Cardinals southpaws JoJo Romero (.000) and Matthew Liberatore (.054) are better than Speier’s thus far.
Unfortunately, Speier’s sinker hasn’t been nearly as effective as the four-seamer and slider. Following the Diamondbacks series, opponents have a .420 wOBA against the pitch. It’s worth noting the Dos Pueblos High School product has thrown his sinker more often (35.2-percent) than his other offerings.
Fun fact: Orioles catcher James McCann attended the same high school as Gabe Speier, but not at the same time.
In a vacuum, Speier’s sinker success doesn’t look particularly appealing. But overall, he’s been great for the Mariners. Hence, my reluctance to comment on what makes a pitcher tick. Numbers don’t tell the whole story.
Waiver wire gem
Clearly, Speier has been exceptional this year. But the totality of his time in Seattle is the real story for me. Since being selected off waivers by the Mariners in November 2022, he’s been one of baseball’s best southpaw relief arms. To see what I mean, consider the following array of stats and rankings.
Speier has been surprisingly effective for a reliever Kansas City decided to part ways with following the 2022 season. In fact, he’s been so good that it’s reasonable to weigh his standing among the best left-handed relievers in Mariners franchise history.
Those were the days
I won’t go as far as claiming Speier is the best Seattle lefty relief arm ever. But Boston’s 19th-round draft pick in 2013 is definitely on my leaderboard. The following illustrates Speier’s stats and their corresponding rankings among 35 southpaws making 50-plus relief appearances as a Mariner.
It turns out Speier’s 31.1-percent strikeout rate leads the pack. Moreover, he’s near the top of the pile in nearly every other category. The names of the other pitchers leading categories should be familiar to long-time Seattle fans. One of them is our “Himmy Neutron” proclaimer.
Other M’s Franchise Leaders Among Lefty Relievers*
BB% (3.7) - Vidal Nuño III
AVG (.196) - Charlie Furbush
OBP (.270) - Arthur Rhodes
SLG (.295) - Tayler Saucedo
OPS (.580) - Arthur Rhodes
* 50+ relief appearance minimum
Some may view the suggestion of Speier being the best left-handed Mariners reliever of all time as premature and a bit of a reach, which is understandable. But based on his performance with the club, his name merits inclusion in the conversation.
League-leaders
Okay, we’ve been talking about Speier. But his PR man, Saucedo, hasn’t exactly been a slouch since becoming a Mariner. It’s why the Tennessee Wesleyan University alum was prominently mentioned in the most recent “Rounding Out the Numbers” edition of the newsletter.
Knowing how well both of Seattle’s lefty relievers have been performing made me wonder. How do they compare to the southpaw component of other MLB bullpens? The answer is pretty, pretty, pretty good.
Clearly, Speier and Saucedo provide the Mariners with a distinct left-handed advantage, which leads to another question. How does the duo compare to the southpaw contingents of previous Seattle bullpens?
Best ever?
It’s tough to declare Speier and Saucedo as head and shoulders above the rest since the current season is so very young. Furthermore, bullpen utilization has dramatically changed since the Mariners debuted in 1977. This makes comparing reliever stats from various eras a bit tricky.
Still, Seattle’s current cadre of lefty relief arms does stack up extremely well to its predecessors when we use six relatively simple metrics.
Yes, it’s possible the run of success that Speier and Saucedo are enjoying won’t last. After all, baseball is really hard. Then again, the pair was responsible for Seattle’s 2023 lefty relievers being top-five in several of the categories listed above. Knowing this leads me to another possibility.
What we’re witnessing from Speier and Saucedo may be the beginning of something special in the Emerald City.
My Oh My…