Rounding Out the Numbers: Early returns
It's too soon to assess the 2024 Mariners. But early-season observations are fair game.
Much to the chagrin of a subset of Mariners Twitter, I’m squarely in the “it’s early” camp when it comes to the team’s performance. Sorry folks, I’ve watched too much baseball to be swayed by small samples. Remember how well the 2019 Mariners started and then finished?
Still, sharing a few early-season observations can’t hurt as long as we recognize April’s numbers can significantly change by season’s end. For proof, look no further than the torrid start of Jarred Kelenic last year and how his offensive production cratered over the final five months.
Okay, let’s begin with an encouraging development involving a young starter.
Master of the lefties
On April 12, Bryce Miller was pitching a gem. Through six innings and 88 pitches, the right-hander had blanked the Cubs on just three hits. But here’s the interesting part: Miller was permitted to begin the seventh inning.
This was a notable turn of events considering just one start earlier Miller was pitching even better - seven complete innings on just 78 pitches - when manager Scott Servais pulled him in favor of the bullpen. After the game, Servais explained his rationale for replacing Miller to the assembled media, including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times.
“Obviously, there’s a lot that went into it. And then it’s all about doing what’s best for the starter in that moment. That starter is Bryce Miller, who doesn’t have a complete season under his belt yet. It’s not Luis Castillo, it’s not George Kirby and it’s not Logan Gilbert, those are different animals.” - Scott Servais
Servais sending Miller back to the mound was interesting. But the veteran skipper allowing the Texas A&M product to stay in the game knowing the first Cub he’d face in the seventh was a left-handed hitter was far more intriguing to me.
That lefty bat was Chicago’s Michael Busch, who had clobbered a home run off Miller earlier in the game. Yet, Servais had enough trust in the 25-year-old to let him take on the only hitter to do significant damage against him. Miller rewarded Servais’ faith in him by striking out Busch.
A year ago, entrusting Miller to confront a productive lefty at a crucial point in a game probably doesn’t happen. In 255 plate confrontations with left-handed hitters last season, the Texan allowed a gawdy .303 AVG/.358 OBP/.558 SLG slash-line.
Miller’s results against left-handers this year have been significantly better than in 2023. Actually, he’s been superb thus far.
Since I’m just a nerd and not an authority on pitching, I can’t provide a detailed breakdown on why Miller is dominating left-handed hitters in 2024. There are probably a number of factors at work. Added experience, confidence, maturity, or improved conditioning come to mind. But the numbers do suggest the splitter he developed over the offseason has contributed to his newfound success.
To date, 21.9-percentage of Miller’s offerings to left-handed hitters have been splitters. It has held opponents to a paltry .071 AVG. That said, it’s important to recognize right-handed hitters aren’t exactly thriving against his splitter (.200 AVG). It’s worth noting they’re seeing it about five-percent less often than their lefty counterparts.
Will Miller continue to keep left-handed hitters in check? Impossible to predict with the available small sample size. But I do know this. His next start should provide a stiff test since it’s against a team that throttled him last year - the Rangers.
Miller was roughed up by Texas hitters for 13 earned runs, five doubles, and three home runs in two starts spanning a total of 6.2 innings. Furthermore, the Rangers boast several productive left-handed bats including Corey Seager, Evan Carter, and Nathaniel Lowe.
Logan likes April
Through four outings, Logan Gilbert has been the best arm in Seattle’s rotation with three quality starts, 2.33 ERA, and an AL-leading 0.778 WHIP. Not only that, he’s providing length to his team. Gilbert and Houston’s Ronel Blanco are tied for most innings-per-start (6.8) in MLB.
It’s worth noting a strong start to the season has become a matter of routine for Gilbert. The Stetson product’s best monthly strikeout and walk rates, SLG, wOBA, and xwOBA during his brief career have occurred in March/April. May has generally be Gilbert’s second-best month.
Am I suggesting Gilbert’s performance is destined to decline as the season progresses? Not at all. The 14th overall pick of 2018 possesses the talent and intelligence to deliver outstanding results through the end of October. So, there’s no reason to believe he can’t do so this year.
That’s right, I said the end of October.
Quality startin’
We’ve discussed the effectiveness of Miller and Gilbert. But the entire rotation has contributed to its success. Following Sunday’s doubleheader against Colorado, the Mariners’ staff has produced 12 quality starts. Only one club has more.
Most Quality Starts
PHI - 13
SEA - 12
KCR - 12
SFG - 10
PIT - 9
TBR - 9
TOR - 9
HOU - 9
DET - 9
ARI - 9
SDP - 9
For anyone wondering, Seattle amassed nine quality starts through its first 22 games last year. The responsible arms: George Kirby (3), Luis Castillo (3), Gilbert (2), and Marco Gonzales (1). This season, it’s been Gilbert (3), Miller (3), Castillo (2), Kirby (2), and rookie Emerson Hancock (2).
Pleasant third base surprise?
As you might expect, the Mariners trading fan-favorite Eugenio Suárez to Arizona last November wasn’t well-received. The situation was exacerbated when fans realized the team’s plan to replace its popular third baseman involved a platoon of Josh Rojas and offseason pickup Luis Urías. Not a popular move considering the offensive history of the new guys.
The left-handed hitting Rojas entered this season with a career 93 wRC+ in 1,637 big-league plate appearances, while the right-handed bat of Urías had produced a 99 wRC+ in 1,641 plate confrontations. Conversely, Suárez delivered a 116 wRC+ in the Emerald City over the last two years.
Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) quantities how a hitter’s total offensive value compares with the league average after adjusting for park effects. League-average is always 100. Therefore, a wRC+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 wRC+ would be 20-percent below average.
Yes, Suárez did experience a suboptimal 2023. But in 694 plate appearances, he managed to put up a 102 wRC+ and slug 29 doubles and 22 home runs. Meanwhile, Rojas and Urías combined for a 79 wRC+ with 23 doubles and seven round-trippers in 592 plate appearances in 2023.
Once the season began, fan anxiety rose to an all-time high when Suárez produced a .316 AVG/.372 OBP/.447 SLG slash through his first 10 games as a Diamondback. However, the numbers have since favored Seattle’s hot corner contingent.
Will the good fortune of Rojas and Urías continue?
Hard to know since it’s so early in the season. But it’s impossible to ignore their career numbers, which suggest they’ll likely be average-ish, at best. For now though, the duo is delivering better results than their predecessor.
Local man makes good
It’s always fun when a player with Washington ties succeeds. Especially when they’re doing good things for the Mariners. That’s what Tahoma High School product Tayler Saucedo has been doing in 2024.
The most impressive Saucedo stat for me is his .203 xwOBA, which currently ranks 12th among 370 pitchers facing at least 30 batters. In fact, he’s just one spot behind old friend Edwin Díaz.
Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) uses quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle) to determine what should’ve happened to batted balls. A key advantage to xwOBA is defense (good or bad) doesn’t influence it. This gives us a truer sense of how a hitter or pitcher is performing. MLB-average xwOBA currently = .319
So, how has Saucedo been doing it?
He’s held opposing hitters to a meager 21.1-percent hard-hit rate against him, which is good enough for ninth-best among relievers facing 30-plus hitters. The Tennessee Wesleyan University alum has also done a nice job of avoiding contact altogether. His 29-percent strikeout rate is tied for fourth-best on the Mariners with Gilbert.
In seven appearances, Saucedo has filled a variety of roles. On April 7, the southpaw covered an MLB career-high 2.2 scoreless innings after starter Emerson Hancock and reliever Collin Snider surrendered 10 earned runs in 3.1 frames.
Nine days later, Saucedo would save his team’s bacon in a more dramatic fashion. With Seattle nursing a 3-1 lead in the bottom of the ninth with two out and the bases loaded, the Hawaiian-born lefty was called upon to get the final out. And much to the relief of fans, that’s exactly what he did.
The other guy
Saucedo’s early-season performance warrants attention. But so do the contributions of Trent Thornton since he joined the Mariners’ bullpen last August 1. It’s something I recently mentioned via Twitter.
On that hellscape website, I noted home runs did plague Thornton last year (five in 23 appearances). Plus, he doesn’t create a lot of swing and miss. However, the former North Carolina Tarheel has been skillful at limiting damaging contact.
To be clear, I’m not suggesting Thornton is on a trajectory to unseat Andrés Muñoz, Ryne Stanek, Matt Brash, or Gregory Santos from their late-inning/high-leverage roles. But the 30-year-old’s value to Servais and the Mariners is apparent - at least it is to me.
Even better, Divish approves of Thornton’s warm up music.
Dilly, Dilly
That’s what Mrs. A. utters whenever Dylan Moore hits a home run. Moore has just one dinger this year, but he’s been contributing to the Mariners’ success in many other ways.
Moore’s overall .660 OPS may not be eye-popping. But he’s crushed left-handers (.909 OPS). And despite being a part-timer, the University of Central Florida alum has managed to steal more bases (3) than any Mariner not named Julio Rodríguez (6).
Still, Moore’s worth to the Mariners goes well beyond his offensive contributions. In six big-league seasons, he’s played every position other than catcher. The 31-year-old even tossed an inning of relief for Seattle in 2019.
This year, Moore is just one of three big-leaguers to already play each infield position. The others are Gabriel Arias of Cleveland and Pablo Reyes of Boston. Only Moore and Arias can boast they’ve also appeared in the outfield.
Moore’s Innings by Position (2024)
1B - 20.1
2B - 16
SS - 11
3B - 7
LF - 49.1
I tend to believe Servais views Moore as the ideal utility weapon. He possesses extraordinary defensive versatility, above-average speed on the bases, and hits the ball hard - particularly against left-handed pitching. Assuming good health, the California native will continue to positively influence his team’s success.
“Dilly, Dilly,” as Mrs. A. would say.
My Oh My…