Is J.D. Davis a good match for the Mariners?

If the Giants are open to dealing J.D. Davis, should the Mariners be interested?

Nam Y. Huh / AP Images

With free agent Matt Chapman joining the Giants this weekend, the team’s incumbent third baseman - J.D. Davis - could become a trade chip for San Francisco. If Davis were made available, should the Mariners consider acquiring the veteran?

For me, the answer is a resounding yes.

The Mariners’ current third base plan is a platoon of left-handed hitting Josh Rojas and right-handed hitting Luis Urías. Veteran Brian Anderson (another righty bat) was recently added as a non-roster invite and could be in the mix, too. Having said that, I view Davis as a better option than any combination of these three players.

Best bat

Last year, Davis was noticeably better than Rojas, Urías, and Anderson in most of the offensive categories. I don’t know about you, but that’s a big selling point for me.

It’s true that Davis’ numbers don’t scream “offensive juggernaut.” His AVG, OBP, and SLG were average-ish last season. But the 30-year-old delivered more power than the trio currently with the Mariners in Peoria. Moreover, Davis is the lone player listed above with an OPS+ above the league-average mark.

On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) is a normalized version of OPS that adjusts for park and league conditions. OPS+ is scaled so 100 is always league-average. As a result, an OPS+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 OPS+ would be 20-percent below average.

With a 103 OPS+, Davis wasn’t much better than the average big-league hitter last year. But Rojas, Urías, and Anderson were suboptimal run producers.

Despite this upbeat assessment, there is a feature about Davis’ stat line we must discuss. One that may be deemed problematic by potential trade partners - strikeouts.

Last season, David had a 27.8-percent strikeout rate. Only three Seattle regulars were worse last season: Jarred Kelenic (31.7), Teoscar Hernández (31.1), and Eugenio Suárez (30.8). All are now former Mariners. Would management be amenable to adding another high-strikeout bat to the mix this late in the offseason?

Hard to know. But it’s worth noting Cal Raleigh posted the same strikeout rate as Davis last season. Raleigh is considered a foundational player for the Mariners.

One-man gang

As we’ve noted, the Mariners appear primed to employ a third base platoon. The goal of this strategy? Achieve the best possible offensive outcomes from the position. This brings us to another selling point for Davis.

Over the past two seasons, the Cal State Fullerton alum has proven capable of being a productive everyday player regardless of pitcher handedness.

Davis’ Platoon Splits (2022-23)

v RHP - 571 PA/.249 AVG/.334 OBP/.412 SLG
v LHP - 340 PA/ .246 AVG/.326 OBP/.419 SLG

Oftentimes, two is better than one. But that wouldn’t be the case with Seattle’s third base situation, if the club acquired the platoon-neutral bat of Davis.

T-Mobile Park, no problem?

Davis is currently a Giant. But he’s played more games at New York’s Citi Field than any other MLB park. In 544 plate appearances at the venue, he’s hit 25 doubles and 20 home runs with a .283 AVG/.364 OBP/.470 SLG slash-line. And why does this matter?

Statcast’s Park Factors rates T-Mobile Park and the Mets’ home field as least-favorable for right-handed hitters. To me, this means Davis is capable of being a productive bat at the ballpark at the corner of Edgar & Dave.

More recently, Davis has performed well at his current home. Although Oracle Park doesn’t suppress offense like the parks in Seattle and Queens, it does rank slightly below-average for right-handed offense. Yet, since joining the Giants in August 2022, Davis boasts a .268 AVG/.352 OBP/.447 SLG in 333 plate appearances in San Francisco.

Defending the hot corner

The majority of Rojas’ third base experience was logged in 2022. The -6 outs above average (OAA) he amassed that season isn’t exactly reassuring. Compounding matters, Urías (zero OAA in 147 third base starts) has been dealing with a shoulder issue, which has limited his ability to throw in a competitive setting.

Anderson’s defense did have a better shine to it last year. With Milwaukee, he had 3 OAA in 50 starts and 476.1 innings at third base. Furthermore, the 30-year-old has a cannon for an arm. His 96-mph average velocity was rated seventh-best among fielders making 100-plus throws.

As for Davis, the 5 OAA he accrued at third base last year was easily a career-best. In fact, it was the first time in seven big-league seasons the Californian produced a positive OAA at the position.

Davis 3B OAA

2017 (-1)
2018 (-2)
2019 (-1)
2020 (-4)
2021 (-2)
2022 (-3)
2023 (5)

Davis’s 5 OAA tied for eighth-best among qualified third baseman with 10-time Gold Glove winner Nolan Arenado. His arm strength also rated extremely well with a ninth-best average velocity (88.2-mph) among third baseman - one spot behind Anderson.

Am I suggesting Davis’ defensive prowess is commensurate with Arenado’s?

Absolutely not. But Statcast tells us Davis did provide superior third base defense to his team last season. The same can’t be said about Rojas or Urías.

It’s worth noting Davis has first base experience. In the last two years, Houston’s third round pick in 2014 logged 200 innings (33 starts) at the position with Statcast rating him as an average defender (zero OAA). Having an established right-handed bat capable of spotting starter Ty France could come in handy during a long season.

Is there a doctor in the house?

A player’s injury history doesn’t necessarily mean he’s destined to spend more time on the IL in the future. But multiple absences due to recent health-related issues isn’t reassuring either.

In the case of Urías and Anderson, they’ve spent two-plus months on the IL since the beginning of the 2022 campaign. Conversely, during the same timeframe, Davis missed just four days with a shoulder strain at the end of last season.

Days Missed Due To Injury (2022-23)

Luis Urías (calf / hamstring) - 76 days
Brian Anderson (shoulder / back x 2) - 70 days
Josh Rojas (oblique) - 33 days
J.D. Davis (shoulder) - 4 days

Is this information pertinent?

Hard for a nerd like me to say. But it’s important to recognize that Seattle's projected Opening Day roster already includes several position players who’ve struggled with remaining available in recent years - Urías, Jorge Polanco, Mitch Haniger, Mitch Garver, and to a degree Luke Raley. Adding a veteran bat with a mostly-good injury history may prove beneficial to the Mariners.

Money matters

Chapman’s free agency inspired energetic conversations within the Mariners’ fan base and over the local air waves. But to me, Seattle signing the four-time Gold Glover never seemed realistic.

Beyond concerns about Chapman’s recent performance, money was always going to be the biggest limiting factor. As we all know by now, the Mariners’ RSN issue cast a dark cloud over the team’s payroll flexibility. Therefore, the reported three-year/$54 million deal Chapman inked with the Giants was probably a bridge too far for Seattle.

The same may not be true about Davis, who is set to earn $6.9 million before becoming a free agent after the upcoming season. Perhaps it would take some maneuvering by the Mariners’ front office to carve out payroll space. But it should be a doable do for a club motivated to make it happen.

Finally

To be clear, I’m not suggesting Rojas or Urías can’t or won’t help the Mariners in 2024. They certainly can. But Davis boasts something neither of those players do. A history of sustained success at the major-league level with his bat.

Since becoming a regular with the Mets in 2019, Davis has a .268/.352/.443 slash with a 118 OPS+ in 1,804 plate appearances. Adding a third baseman with an established bat, who’s also coming off a strong defensive campaign, could be a game-changer for the Mariners.

My Oh My…