How the offense improves in 2025
Simply being average could pave a path to a Mariners postseason appearance this year.
The Mariners signed two notable hitters this offseason. A 37-year-old Donovan Solano and Jorge Polanco, who endured one of the worst seasons of his career with Seattle last year. For fans still seething over the team’s poor offensive showing in 2024, this was an insufficient effort by management.
An understandable sentiment considering Seattle’s run production ranked in the bottom-third of MLB in multiple categories, including runs scored.
Mariners’ Offensive Stats (and MLB Rankings)
676 Runs (21st in MLB)
3,752 Balls in Play (30th)
1,195 Hits (29th)
769 Singles (30th)
228 Doubles (27th)
13 Triples (29th)
185 HR (13th)
140 SB (9th)
9.4 BB% (4th)
26.8 SO% (29th)
.224 AVG (29th)
.311 OBP (15th)
.376 SLG (25th)
.687 OPS (22nd)
.303 wOBA (21st)
Still, I believe the Mariners’ lineup can do much more damage in 2025 than it did last year despite adding just one established bat from outside the organization this winter.
No, I’m not wearing teal-colored glasses. In my simple mind, all Seattle has to do is be average-or-better at more positions for the entire season than it was last year. To see what I mean, let’s contrast the OPS of each position group to its corresponding MLB average.
With the exception of catcher and center field, the Mariners had a below-average OPS at every position. In several cases, Seattle was significantly worse than the rest of the league.
Armed with this knowledge, let’s now consider the likelihood of each position group improving from an offensive standpoint in 2025. To me, there are multiple opportunities for the Mariners to get better. However, we may need to strain our eyes to find a ray of hope at several positions.
First base
Opening Day starter Ty France had a .260 AVG/.325 OBP/.411 SLG through the end of May. But his productivity cratered to a meager .157/.289/.241 over the next 33 games. France would subsequently be dealt to the Reds.
On July 21, the day of France’s final game as a Mariner, the team’s first basemen had a .665 OPS for the season. Only good enough to rank 22nd in MLB. For the rest of the year, the first base position delivered a fifth-best .826 OPS.
Best 1B OPS (July 22-September 29)
TOR (1.041)
ATL (.939)
MIA (.939)
STL (.868)
SEA (.826)
NYM (.823)
TEX (.790)
TBR (.781)
COL (.776)
LAD (.770)
This dramatic uptick in productivity is the result of partnering deadline acquisition Justin Turner with Luke Raley. The pair performed magnificently and accounted for 86-percent of the team’s first base plate appearances for the remainder of the 2024 campaign.
Outlook: Since Turner is now a Cub, the Mariners won’t benefit from his bat or leadership this year. However, Raley is still here and will likely pair with the right-handed hitting Solano. Considering the combined OPS of the duo was .773 last year, it’s reasonable to believe first base can be an above-average offensive position.
Second base
Ever since the departure of Robinson Canó after the 2018 season, Seattle second basemen rank last in OPS. Last year was no different with Polanco holding down the position. The 31-year-old appeared in 110 games at second base and produced a .213 AVG/.296 OBP/.355 SLG in 118 total contests.
Rankings of Mariners 2B OPS During JeDi Era
2016 - 3rd in MLB
2017 - 12th
2018 - 18th
2019 - 19th
2020 - 27th
2021 - 27th
2022 - 28th
2023 - 28th
2024 - 21st
By now, everyone should know Polanco will play third base this year. The most prominent candidates vying to take over at the keystone are Gold Glove utility-man Dylan Moore, rookie Ryan Bliss, and prospect Cole Young.
Outlook: In February, it’s difficult for this nerd to squint hard enough to envision this group yielding above-average production. Then again, Spring Training has just begun. Perhaps a new acquisition enters the picture or one of the players we mentioned develops into a pleasant surprise.
Shortstop
Long-time starter J.P. Crawford experienced career lows in AVG, OBP, and OPS last year. Moreover, injuries limited the 16th overall pick of 2013 to just 105 games after he averaged 150 contests in 2021-23.
Being hurt undoubtedly undermined Crawford’s effectiveness. But a segment of team observers believes the Californian became too enamored with swinging for the fences after recording career bests in home runs and SLG in 2023. Whether this perception is true remains unclear to this unqualified blogger. That said, I suspect Crawford would agree that he didn’t deliver adequate offensive production last year.
Outlook: In 2023, Crawford’s .818 OPS tied Julio Rodríguez for the team lead. Replicating this performance in 2025 would be great. But the eight-year veteran simply producing at a level commensurate with his 2021-22 numbers would provide a tremendous boost to the lineup.
Third base
The Mariners began last season with a platoon of left-handed hitting Josh Rojas and right-handed counterpart Luis Urías with Rojas eventually emerging as the main man. Initially, everything went swimmingly for both player and team until reality set in.
Through May 10, Rojas led the Mariners in AVG, OBP, and SLG. As a result, the OPS of Seattle third basemen ranked sixth in the majors. Unfortunately, the University of Hawaii alum’s numbers plummeted afterwards. During his final 108 contests, Rojas produced a .188 AVG/.271 OBP/.280 SLG with the team’s .598 OPS placing 27th.
Outlook: With Rojas and Urías out of the picture, the Mariners will turn to the switch-hitting Polanco as the full-time solution. Not long ago, I expressed apprehension regarding the likelihood of the one-time All-Star remaining available and whether he could produce at T-Mobile Park.
Still, average-ish offensive production from Polanco in Seattle and better numbers on the road would represent a massive upgrade over what the Mariners got from the position in 2024, and 2023, and 2022, and 2021, and...
Left field
When Randy Arozarena was acquired from the Rays on July 26 last year, Seattle left fielders had a 24th-ranked .661 OPS. As a Mariner, the Cuban had a 10th-best OPS at the position.
Outlook: If Arozarena provides what he did to Tampa Bay and Seattle last year, the Mariners add another above-average position to the ledger. If the 2021 AL Rookie of the Year replicates his post-trade numbers for the entire 2025 campaign, October could be a memorable month for baseball fans in the Pacific Northwest.
Center field
Seattle ranked sixth in center field OPS despite Rodríguez’s .625 OPS through the first three months of the season and the fact he spent nearly three weeks on the IL in July and August.
Outlook: Assuming good health, it’s reasonable to expect Rodríguez can be more productive in 2025 than he was last year. If that’s the case, Seattle will be top-three in center field offense - as it was in 2022 and 2023.
Right field
Veteran Mitch Haniger and Dominic Canzone accounted for the largest portion of right field playing time. Unfortunately, they combined for a disappointing .204 AVG/.282 OBP/.349 SLG. But a late-season surge by a newcomer provided hope for the 2025 campaign.
RF Plate Appearances
Mitch Haniger (319)
Dominic Canzone (123)
Víctor Robles (102)
Luke Raley (101)
Cade Marlowe (5)
Jason Vosler (3)
Sam Haggerty (1)
When Rodríguez returned from the IL in August, Víctor Robles transitioned from center field to right field. This move affected the Mariners in two ways. It led to reduced playing time for the under-achieving duo of Haniger and Canzone. Furthermore, Seattle had the best right field OPS in September.
Outlook: After Dan Wilson became manager, Robles had the third-highest OPS in baseball for the rest of the year. Will the eight-year veteran repeat this level of productivity over an entire season? Probably not. But if Robles is simply league-average, he’d be a major upgrade over what Seattle received from right field last year.
Designated hitter
Seattle ranked 23rd in OPS last year with Mitch Garver having the most plate appearances. It’s worth noting Haniger had a .727 OPS during his 91 plate confrontations as the designated hitter. That said, the Cal Poly alum’s OPS for the season was just .620.
DH Plate Appearances
Mitch Garver (336)
Mitch Haniger (91)
Cal Raleigh (76)
Justin Turner (62
Julio Rodríguez (42)
Jorge Polanco (22)
Jason Vosler (13)
Randy Arozarena (9)
Ty France (4)
Dominic Canzone (2)
Víctor Robles (1)
Luke Raley (1)
Time will eventually reveal how the team utilizes its designated hitters. A rebound by both Mitches would provide Wilson with a good problem. Two capable right-handed bats to fill one spot.
Then again, it’s plausible Garver is restricted to being a backup catcher and facing a hefty serving of left-handed pitching. Haniger may also have a diminished role after seeing his playing time reduced last September.
Perhaps Wilson chooses another route - use the DH position to give regulars a day off from playing in the field. Cal Raleigh, Solano, Polanco, and Arozarena would seem like ideal candidates for such a strategy.
Outlook: Regardless of the approach chosen by the Mariners, getting more offense from their designated hitters is paramount. Especially when most of the names we just discussed were considered below-average defenders last year.
Catcher
Obviously, production at this position was driven by Raleigh. The Florida State product led MLB catchers with 545 plate appearances with Garver (86) and Seby Zavala (43) picking up the scraps.
Outlook: Assuming Raleigh remains available and produces at a level similar-or-better to last season, the catcher position remains a strength in 2025.
Keeping Tabs
Could the Mariners get more offense from third base and designated hitter than they did in 2024? Sure, but there’s so much uncertainty associated with the players expected to occupy these positions. And then there’s second base - the greatest unknown.
Having said that, it’s reasonable to believe the Mariners can receive average-or-better production from first base, shortstop, catcher, and all three outfield spots. This in of itself would propel the offense to being noticeably better than last year’s edition.
Whether the increase in productivity I just described would be enough to clinch a postseason berth likely depends on the health of Seattle’s starting rotation and its ability to be elite again. Piece of cake, right?
Right?
Right?
My Oh My…