Welcome back Jorge Polanco

A familiar face returns to the Mariners. But will the team receive better results this time around?

Charles Rex Arbogast / AP Images

Yesterday, the Mariners reunited with their 2024 Opening Day second baseman. However, multiple reports suggest Jorge Polanco will shift from the keystone over to third base for the upcoming season.

The reunion between the Mariners and Polanco, who didn’t perform well in his debut season with the team, is likely to frustrate a large contingent of fans. With this in mind, let’s consider what the numbers tell us about Seattle’s projected everyday third baseman.

Yikes!

Polanco endured the worst season of his 11-year career in 2024. He underperformed MLB averages for strikeout rate, AVG, OBP, SLG, wOBA, and wRC+. Adding salt to the wound for Seattle fans, the switch-hitter’s numbers with the Mariners paled in comparison to what he delivered to the Twins from 2021 to 2023.

Last year, 29.2-percent of Polanco’s 469 plate appearances ended with a strikeout. Three other Mariners with 400-plus plate appearances struck out at a rate similar to the team’s “new” third baseman. They were Mitch Garver (30.9-percent), Mitch Haniger (29.8), and Luke Raley (29.7). While Raley managed to be a productive hitter despite his propensity to swing and miss, the trio of Polanco, Garver, and Haniger didn’t consistently deliver positive results with their bats.

While Polanco had a career-high 137 strikeouts in 2024, it’s important to note this was a continuation of a trend beginning after the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. His strikeout rate has jumped three- to four-percent annually in each of the past four seasons.

Home sweet home?

Polanco’s home and away splits suggest his offense was heavily suppressed by T-Mobile Park in 2024. Granted, what he delivered on the road last year was below average. But it wasn’t shockingly poor like his home production was. Still, the numbers that intrigue me most are Polanco’s “expected stats” listed below.

Expected stats (xBA, xSLG, xwOBA) are primarily determined using launch angle and exit velocity. Simply put, these metrics attempt to project what should’ve happened to batted balls when defense is removed from the equation. With this in mind, take a moment to compare Polanco’s actual stats to his corresponding expected stats.

On the road, Polanco’s xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA are essentially identical to his actual AVG, SLG, and wOBA. However, the extreme disparity between these metrics at home highlights T-Mobile Park negatively influenced his production last year.

Is there a doctor in the house?

Over the last three seasons, Polanco has averaged 101 games played. In 2024, the one-time All-Star missed a month with a hamstring issue and would appear in just 118 contests.

Recent Polanco Injuries (and Days Lost)

2022 - Lower back tightness (15 days)
2022 - Left knee inflammation (36 days)
2023 - Left knee inflammation (25 days)
2023 - Left hamstring strain (14 days)
2023 - Left hamstring strain (49 days)
2024 - Right hamstring strain (28 days)

Source: Baseball Prospectus

The hamstring strain Polanco suffered wasn’t the only health-related issue the 31-year-old dealt with last year. The left knee that cost him 61 days in 2022 and 2023 required surgery after the season to repair the patella tendon.

The defense rests

We’ve previously discussed how advanced defensive metrics suggest Polanco’s glove work at second base has been poor. As a refresher, his minus-10 OAA ranked last among 37 qualified second basemen in 2024.

Outs Above Average (OAA) is a range-based metric that quantifies how many outs a defender has saved compared to the average player. League-average is always ZERO. Source: Baseball Savant

And just to be clear, Polanco’s suboptimal range didn’t suddenly appear when he became a Mariner. His minus-26 OAA over the past four seasons ranks last among 37 qualified second basemen.

Polanco’s Annual 2B OAA and MLB Ranking

2021 (minus-2) - 30 of 35
2022 (minus-9) - 35 of 38
2023 (minus-5) - 35 of 40
2024 (minus-10) - 37 of 37

Considering Polanco’s discouraging fielding stats and his recent injury history, a move to third base may be the most practical way to utilize the Dominican Republic native at this stage of his career. But whether Polanco can evolve into a full-timer at the hot corner is unclear.

Since the beginning of the 2016 campaign, Polanco has logged 180 innings at third base. This means the veteran infielder will likely require a lot of reps at the position under the watchful eye of Mariners infield coach Perry Hill during Spring Training.

Finally

It’s possible that Polanco morphs into an important contributor for the Mariners this year. But it’s tough for this nerd to look past the factors that helped derail his first year with Seattle.

Perhaps Polanco’s offseason knee surgery helps improve his availability. But it’s important to remember we’re talking about a player on the wrong side of 30, who’s suffered lower body injuries in four consecutive seasons and appeared in just 62-percent of his teams’ games during this span.

Then, there’s the defense.

Yes, Hill is an infield guru, who ushered J.P. Crawford and Dylan Moore to Gold Glove seasons. He also helped transform Eugenio Suárez and Josh Rojas into plus defenders at third base. But it’s important to remember that these players had extensive experience at the positions Hill helped them master. Conversely, Polanco is a 31-year-old newbie at third base.

And let’s not overlook the ballpark.

Several long-time Mariners, including Crawford, Moore, and Cal Raleigh have yet to master hitting at T-Mobile Park. Therefore, there’s no guarantee a healthy Polanco would be a valuable run producer at home this year.

Finally, it’s possible Polanco demonstrates in 2025 that he’s overcome the issues we’ve been detailing. This would be the best possible outcome for both player and team. However, until that time, a wait-and-see approach with Seattle’s newest third baseman makes sense to this nerd.

My Oh My…