How about a Ty France-Mariners reunion?

Seattle just re-signed Jorge Polanco. Could the team reunite with 2024 Opening Day first baseman, too?

Lindsey Wasson / AP Images

Over the weekend, Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reported that the Mariners roster is “effectively set” with Spring Training beginning in just a few weeks. This doesn’t mean the door is completely shut on further additions prior to Opening Day. But the likelihood of a major acquisition appears to be shrinking.

Still, it’s cold and snowy outside. Keeping the hot stove burning a little longer seems like a fun idea. With this in mind, I posted a few nerd nuggets on Twitter yesterday about a popular former Mariner, Ty France, who was traded to Cincinnati last July. The feedback I received ranged from ambivalence to complete outrage.

What I read motivated me to write about France and whether a reunion with Seattle would make sense. This assumes the player would have an interest in returning to the club that designated him for assignment less than a year ago.

Let’s begin with the good stuff.

A great run as a Mariner

Across the board, France was an above-average run producer after joining Seattle in 2020. It’s worth noting his career 118 wRC+ as a Mariner ties him with Mitch Haniger and Bruce Bochte for 15th-best in franchise history.

France’s wRC+ places him ahead of prominent Mariners Raúl Ibañez, Cal Raleigh, Kyle Seager, Jean Segura, Tino Martinez, and Dave Henderson. The San Diego State product also had a higher wRC+ than two Hall of Famers: Ichiro Suzuki and Adrian Beltré.

Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) quantifies how a hitter’s total offensive value compares with the league average after adjusting for park effects. League-average is always 100. Therefore, a wRC+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 wRC+ would be 20-percent below average.

To be clear, I’m not suggesting France was better than any of these players when they were Mariners. But his ballpark- and era-adjusted offensive production was similar or slightly better than these notable names.

He reached base a lot

When we contrast France to 133 right-handed hitters with 1,000-plus plate appearances during his three full seasons as a Mariner (2021-23), just 21 of these players had a higher OBP than what he produced (.348).

One element of France’s on-base success was putting the ball in play. In 2021-23, his 16.4-percent strikeout rate was 16th-lowest among our group of 133 right-handers. He also led the Mariners with the left-handed hitting J.P. Crawford (16.5-percent) essentially tied with him.

Another prominent factor bolstering France’s excellent OBP was his tendency to be hit by a pitch (HBP). Since 2021, he leads the majors with 95 HBP.

Most HBP (2021-24)

Ty France (95)
Mark Canha (85)
Jonathan India (68)
Andrés Giménez (67)
Anthony Rizzo (67)
Randy Arozarena (65)
Willson Contreras (63)
Pete Alonso (58)
Will Smith (52)
Willi Castro (49)
Jake Cronenworth (48)
Kyle Farmer (48)
Jeff McNeil (48)
Sean Murphy (46)
Luke Raley (45)

France is also the Mariners franchise leader in HBP with Edgar Martínez (89), Kyle Seager (63), Dave Valle (60), and Jay Buhner (53) rounding out the top-five.

No need for a platoon

France performed well against both left- and right-handed pitching during his five seasons as a Mariner. The power was better against southpaws, although his OBP was identical.

France was at his best against right-handers during his three full campaigns in the Emerald City when his .348 OBP was 16th-best among righty bats. Moreover, it was on-par with a popular trade target of Seattle fans, Nico Hoerner (.345), and slightly better than current Mariner Randy Arozarena (.340).

Gotta love that home cookin’

Mike Petriello of MLB recently provided a tremendous amount of analysis regarding the many factors making the Mariners’ home, T-Mobile Park, the most difficult venue for hitters in MLB. That said, guess which Seattle hitter excelled at home?

During his five seasons as a Mariner, France was actually more productive at T-Mobile Park than he was on the road. That’s a rare occurrence for any Seattle hitter with as many plate appearances as the former All-Star had.

Twenty Mariners have made 1,000 plate appearances at T-Mobile Park and 1,000 plate appearances on the road since the 1999 season. Only three can boast a higher OPS at home than on the road: France, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Franklin Gutiérrez.

Fun fact: Raúl Ibañez had an identical .817 OPS at T-Mobile Park and on the road as a Mariner from 1999 to 2014.

Admittedly, there is some randomness with the following stat. But I’m mentioning it anyway since it’s a fun nugget. Only Mike Trout has a higher OPS with runners in scoring position (RISP) at T-Mobile Park than France does since Trout debuted in 2011.

Highest OPS w/RISP at T-Mobile Park During Trout Era*

Mike Trout (1.517)
Ty France (.957)
Jose Altuve (.953)
Albert Pujols (.952)
Danny Valencia (.926)
Eugenio Suárez (.921)
Seth Smith (.921)
Guillermo Heredia (.888)
Nelson Cruz (.869)
Mitch Haniger (.868)
Robinson Canó (.864)

* 75 PA min

France being sandwiched between three future Hall of Famers is impressive. That said, I didn’t have Danny Valencia cracking the top-five on my bingo card. But it turns out that during his lone season as a Mariner in 2017, Valencia had Seattle’s second-highest home OPS with RISP.

He goes the other way a lot

Since Dan Wilson and Edgar Martínez respectively became Seattle’s manager and hitting coach last August, there’s been a lot of chatter about how the Mariners will be hitting the ball to the opposite field more often this year. Well, going oppo was a strong suit for France during his time with the team.

During his three full seasons in Seattle, 25.6-percent of France’s batted balls were hit to the opposite field. That was 29th-highest among right-handed hitters during this span. Furthermore, the 34th-round pick hit .325 when going oppo - good enough for 33rd-best.

Ground ball success

In 2021-23, France recorded a .273 AVG on ground balls, which tied him with Cleveland’s José Ramírez for 30th-best. France also had the tenth-most ground ball hits during this three-season span.

Most Ground Ball Hits (2021-23)

Trea Turner (209)
Yandy Díaz (199)
Bo Bichette (197)
Amed Rosario (194)
Xander Bogaerts (185)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (183)
Christian Yelich (179)
Nathaniel Lowe (178)
Tommy Edman (177)
Ty France (174)
Randy Arozarena (173)

So far, we’ve covered the positive aspects of France’s time with the Mariners with our primary focus being on his 2021-23 production. But I suspect a segment of fans want me to discuss France’s disappointing 2024 season and other blemishes on his résumé. Let’s do that now.

A shocking decline

What started out with great promise in 2020 began to look less appealing by the 2023 season. Rather than focus on multiple stats, I’m using an illustration of his annual wRC+ to demonstrate how his offensive productivity began to freefall following 2022.

Even France’s success at T-Mobile Park diminished last year. After boasting a .359 home OBP during his first three full seasons, his OBP in Seattle dropped to .309 in 2024.

Strikeouts went up last year

During his time as a Mariner, France developed a reputation for avoiding the strikeout. But this changed in 2024 when he struck out in 21.3-percent of his plate appearances. Granted, that’s still under the MLB average (22.6-percent). But striking out so frequently was very un-France-like.

As you would expect, France’s whiff rate also climbed to a new height in 2024. His walk rate also increased modestly, while he chased fewer pitches outside the strike zone than in previous full campaigns.

Not-so-sweet spot

Naturally, the Statcast nerds came up with a way to determine how often the ball finds the “sweet spot” of the bat. In a nutshell, any batted ball event with a launch angle between eight and 32 degrees qualifies.

In France’s case, his overall production when finding the sweet spot has been solid. However, last season’s sweet spot percentage (SwSp%) reveals an issue.

France reached the sweet spot five-percent less often in 2024 than he did in the three previous seasons combined. This seems especially suboptimal for a hitter, who put fewer balls in play thanks to an increase in whiffs and walks.

Oh, those double plays

A common lament expressed by fans about France was his knack for grounding into double plays (GIDP). An understandable sentiment considering he ranked third in the category over the last four seasons.

GIDP Leaders (2021-24)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (85)
Josh Bell (79)
Ty France (72)
Nolan Arenado (71)
Alec Bohm (71)
Carlos Correa (69)
Pete Alonso (68)
José Abreu (67)
Manny Machado (67)
Alex Bregman (66)
J.D. Martinez (66)
Juan Soto (63)
Nick Castellanos (62)
Xander Bogaerts (61)

I will say this in France’s defense. If we remove the 2023 season, when he grounded into 25 double plays, the Californian would rank 10th. Obviously, that’s not how baseball works. However, that one bad year may have unfairly exacerbated an already bad impression some Mariners fans had developed.

Then again, France’s AVG on ground balls with the Mariners took a drastic turn for the worst in 2023 and didn’t recover before he left the team last year.

France’s AVG on Grounders w/SEA

2022 (.262)
2021 (.323)
2023 (.228)
2024 (.180)

Slow on the bases

His foot speed certainly didn’t help France avoid grounding into double plays or getting hits on grounders over the last two years. But then again, quickness on the bases has never been a strength during his career.

France’s sprint speed has been below average since he made his MLB debut in 2019. Last year, only nine of 289 base runners with 100-plus competitive runs had a sprint speed lower than France’s 25.1-feet-per-second.

France’s Average Sprint Speed (feet-per-second)

2019 (25.9)
2020 (25.2)
2021 (25.3)
2022 (24.8)
2023 (25)
2024 (25.1)

MLB average sprint speed = 27-feet-per-second

Subpar defense

According to Statcast, France’s defensive range was quite bad last year with his minus-12 OAA ranking 40th among 40 qualified first basemen. Conversely, 2024 Gold Glove winners Carlos Santana (14 OAA) and Christian Walker (13 OAA) sat atop the first base leaderboard.

All told, France accrued minus-16 OAA between 2021 and 2024 with the Mariners and Reds.

Outs Above Average (OAA) is a range-based metric that quantifies how many outs a defender has saved compared to the average player. League-average is always ZERO. Source: Baseball Savant

It’s also worth considering that France has publicly attributed many of his aches and pains to action on the field - not being hit by a pitch.

In August 2021, France told Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times that he injured his wrist making a diving play in April. From what I can determine, the issue probably occurred on a ground ball hit by Kyle Tucker. If you’re interested in watching it, here’s a video of the play. France would land on the IL about two weeks later with the wrist proving to be problematic for the remainder of the season.

In 2022, France missed 12 games after a late-June collision with Oakland’s Sheldon Neuse. He subsequently told Adam Jude that his swing mechanics weren’t right following the Neuse collision. You can watch that train wreck here.

Later in the season, France hurt his wrist in a manner similar to the 2021 injury. Once again, he stated it was an on-field incident. Of course, I have the video.

Finally

France’s overall numbers suggest he was an above-average hitter capable of being productive at T-Mobile Park in a large sample, which is a rarity. Still, there are concerns that are tough to ignore.

Since France doesn’t provide value as a defender or base runner, it’s imperative for him to deliver with his bat. This didn’t happen to expected levels in 2023 or 2024. Whether this decline was attributable to injuries or other factors is unknown. But in the end, it cost him his job with the Mariners.

Then again, Seattle has reportedly re-signed second baseman Jorge Polanco, who also had a disappointing 2024 season. Perhaps France’s history of success at T-Mobile Park and his knack for taking the ball the other way makes him an appealing reclamation product for Edgar.

Still, the recent acquisition of free agent corner infielder Donovan Solano does make it difficult to envision a roster spot being available for France. But honestly, I wouldn’t mind seeing him in a Mariners uniform again.

I realize that’s sentimentality speaking and not logic. France was a favorite of Mrs. A’s and that means something to me. She loved yelling “Ty France” whenever he did good things, which happened often for several seasons. Not only that, Mrs. A had an affinity for his dog, Oakley France.

And that certainly matters, too.

My Oh My…