Free agents who could help transform the Mariners' lineup
Free agents who could help transform the Mariners' lineup
A really big-name free agent is hitting the market. But there are others in this year's class, who are capable of helping make Seattle's offense more productive in 2024.
We recently discussed trade candidates capable of helping solve the “contact riddle” plaguing the Mariners this year. Now, let’s focus on free agent hitters, who could also help in this regard.
Our trade conversation detailed the rationale behind the three metrics particularly important to me during my search: strikeout rate, hard-hit rate (HH%), and batting average against breaking balls (AVG vs BB). So, I’m relying on these numbers once again.
Okay, let’s begin with the biggest free agent of all.
Shohei Ohtani, DH/P
Selling points: Over the past three seasons, Ohtani has been top-5 in home runs, triples, SLG, OPS, and OPS+.
This year, the 2021 AL MVP led the major leagues in SLG, OPS, and OPS+ and finished second to Ronald Acuña Jr. in OBP. Furthermore, his 44 home runs paced the American League. Oh, and he swiped 20 bases too.
In 170 plate appearances against southpaws this season, the left-handed hitter posted an impressive .245 AVG/.365 OBP/.532 SLG slash-line. The only lefty bats with a better OPS than Ohtani’s .890 were Freddie Freeman (1.008), Cody Bellinger (.984), Kyle Tucker (.934), and Yordan Alvarez (.892).
Venues don’t seem to influence Ohtani’s productivity. In 2023, the three-time All-Star produced a 1.031 OPS at home and a 1.097 OPS on the road.
Potential concerns: Ohtani’s season as a pitcher was cut short due to an elbow injury, which ultimately required surgery. It’s important to note the 29-year-old underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018. Whether he had a second TJ procedure or something else this time remains unclear. But we do know the right-handed hurler won’t pitch in 2024.
Thoughts: Ohtani is a one-of-a-kind superstar, who would’ve been the best hitter on the Mariners and many other clubs in 2023. Therefore, his premium bat makes sense for Seattle - even if the native of Japan never throws another pitch in the majors.
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF
Selling points: With 29 doubles, 27 home runs, and 20 stolen bases, the Dodgers’ fourth round pick in 2013 demonstrated a smooth blend of power and speed.
As we previously noted, Bellinger had the second-best OPS (.984) among left-handed hitters when confronted with lefty pitching.
Defensively, about 62-percent of Bellinger’s on-field action was in center field. He covered first base for the Cubs the rest of the time. Per Statcast, the 28-year-old rated as an average first baseman and an above-average glove in center field. Moreover, his fielding run value of five was fourth-best on his team.
Between 2017 and 2022, Bellinger played in 69 playoff games with the Dodgers. He was NLCS MVP in 2018 and earned a World Series ring two postseasons later.
Potential concerns: Bellinger has endured his share of ups and downs during seven big-league seasons. In 2019, he won NL MVP. But in 2021-22, the Arizona native slashed .193/.256/.355 with a 66 OPS+ in 900 plate appearances. This year was completely different, which is why we’re talking about him.
To this point, the following illustrates Bellinger’s waxing and waning hard-hit and strikeout rates through the years.
Maybe this is a nothing-burger, but Bellinger’s production numbers away from NL Central ballparks (including Wrigley Field) were noticeably lower in 2023.
NL Central parks: .310 AVG/.357 OBP/.540 SLG
Everywhere else: .279 AVG/.324 OBP/.468 SLG
It’s possible this split is attributable to the randomness of baseball. Then again, Statcast suggests the Mariners’ home field is extremely unfriendly to left-handed hitters. So, it makes sense to at least consider how Bellinger’s low-ish hard-hit rate might affect his productivity in Seattle.
Thoughts: There’s a lot to like about Bellinger. But it’s understandable if a club was wary of his history of inconsistent performance. The same could be true about what the 2017 NL Rookie of the Year’s offensive ceiling might be at T-Mobile Park.
Note: There’s a $12 million mutual option for 2024 in Bellinger’s contract.
Joc Pederson, LF/RF
Selling points: Among 212 hitters with at least 400 plate appearances, Pederson’s walk rate was 23rd-best. If the 31-year-old was a member of the Mariners this year, he would’ve ranked second behind J.P. Crawford (14.7%). Only Ty France (17.6%) and Crawford (19.6%) had a lower strikeout rate than Pederson did.
This season with the Giants, Pederson started more games at designated hitter than any position. However, he did make 20 starts in left field and three more in right field. The two-time All-Star also has 19 career starts at first base, although it’s worth noting all came with the Dodgers in 2019.
Pederson also boasts a ton of playoff experience. He’s played in 16 postseason series earning World Series rings with the Dodgers in 2020 and then the Braves a year later.
Potential concerns: Pederson is a lefty bat, who specializes in raking against right-handed pitching. Over his last two seasons with San Francisco, the 11th round pick of the Dodgers in 2010 had an .841 OPS against right-handers and .678 OPS when facing left-handers.
The Californian had a superb first half this year. But following the All-Star game, he experienced a noticeable decline in productivity.
Monthly OPS
Apr/Mar - .806
May - .913
Jun - .873
Jul - .704
Aug - .711
Sep/Oct - .676
MLB average OPS = .728
Pederson’s -3 fielding run value this season suggests his defense may be viewed as a liability. Last year, when the 10-year veteran spent significantly more time in the outfield, his -11 fielding run value ranked 294th of 302 players with 500-plus innings. For context, Jesse Winker had a -9 fielding run value with Seattle.
Thoughts: Pederson’s defensive metrics signal he may be best-suited to be a designated hitter, who occasionally plays in the field. Considering his relatively young age, superb plate discipline, and success at mashing right-handed pitching, the Palo Alto High School product can help teams willing to utilize him in a manner that emphasizes strengths without exposing limitations.
Max Kepler, OF
Selling points: If Kepler was with Seattle in 2023, he would’ve been one of the team’s best bats. Among qualified hitters, only Julio Rodríguez (.485) had a higher SLG. J.P. Crawford (131) and Rodríguez (128) were the only Mariners with a higher OPS+ than the German-born veteran. His 24 home runs would’ve ranked fourth.
The left-handed hitter performed much better against right-handed pitching (.832 OPS). But he produced a respectable .250/.320/.432 slash versus southpaws.
Kepler’s fielding run value of five in right field tied for third best with Jason Heyward of the Dodgers.
Potential concerns: Kepler dealt with knee and hamstring injuries this year - issues he experienced in previous seasons. To this point, the 30-year-old has played in just 76% of Minnesota’s games dating back to the start of the 2020 campaign.
Thoughts: Perhaps Kepler’s recent lower body injuries amount to a red flag now that he’s on the wrong side of 30. Then again, the nine-year veteran remained an above-average right field defender despite these issues. Plus, he possesses a potent bat. These two qualities are exactly what Seattle needs more of on its roster.
Note: The Twins hold a $10 million club option on Kepler for next season.
Justin Turner, DH/1B
Selling points: Despite being in his age-38 season, Turner continued to be an above-average run producer. Although the Cal State Fullerton product played the majority of his games as Boston’s designated hitter (98), he did appear at first base in 41 contests and made a combined 11 starts at second base and third base.
Turner was successful against breaking stuff, which was a weakness of the 2023 Mariners. The two-time All-Star’s .268 AVG versus sliders, sweepers, and curve balls ranked fifty-third among 365 hitters seeing at least 750 breaking pitches.
The veteran of 15 seasons also has a long history of delivering in October. In 368 postseason plate appearances, Turner has hit 19 doubles and 13 home runs with a .270/.370/.460 slash-line. In 2023, he won a World Series with the Dodgers and was MVP of the 2017 NLCS.
Potential concerns: Well, Turner will be 39 next year. In the last three seasons, just one 39-or-older position player has appeared in more than 125 games - Nelson Cruz (140) in 2021. Therefore, it’s reasonable to speculate whether he can buck this trend.
Thoughts: Obviously, acquiring a position player approaching his fourth decade is a risky proposition. Still, doubting Turner may be a mistake. After all, he was waived twice early in his career before transforming into a two-time All-Star and a fixture in a championship lineup.
Note: Turner has a $13.4 million player option for 2024.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF
Selling points: Among qualified Mariner hitters, Gurriel’s SLG would’ve placed second behind Julio Rodríguez (.486). Only Rodríguez (.275) and J.P. Crawford (.266) had a higher batting average. Furthermore, the right-handed batter’s 35 doubles would’ve tied Crawford for second-most by a Mariner behind, you guessed it, Rodríguez.
According to Statcast’s Fielding Run Value, Gurriel (3) was third-best among MLB left fielders with 500-plus innings at the position. Seattle’s Jarred Kelenic (-2) was twelfth.
Entering this season, Gurriel’s playoff experience was two games and eight plate appearances with Toronto in last year’s wild card series loss to Seattle. The 2023 All-Star padded his résumé this postseason by helping Arizona reach the World Series.
Potential concerns: Gurriel hit a career-high 24 home runs and 35 doubles during his lone season as a Diamondback. But the 30-year-old also saw his OBP plummet 34 points.
Gurriel’s production was uneven this year. The Cuban had an above-average OPS in three months. But it was suboptimal in March/April, June, and July.
Gurriel’s Monthly OPS (2023)
Mar/Apr - .699
May - 1.130
Jun - .625
Jul - .480
Aug - .846
Sep/Oct - .826
MLB average OPS = .728
Thoughts: The combination of Gurriel’s bat and defense makes him an intriguing target. That said; it’s important to remember he’s a good player - not a great one. His presence would lengthen a Mariners lineup that was too short in 2023. But it’ll take more than adding the six-year veteran to transform Seattle’s offense this offseason.
My Oh My…