Six hitters capable of solving the Mariners’ contact riddle
Six hitters capable of solving the Mariners’ contact riddle
The Mariners struck out too much in 2023. Getting help from outside the organization is the best and perhaps only way to make significant progress with the issue next year.
Mariners President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto recently told the local media, including Adam Jude of the Seattle Times, the team needed to solve its “contact riddle.”
To me, the solution to Seattle’s quandary is simple: strike out significantly less often. Easier said than done.
You see, Seattle’s 25.9% strikeout rate was second-highest in MLB this year. Two Mariners ranked fifth and sixth respectively in the category: Teoscar Hernández (31.1%) and Eugenio Suárez (30.8%). Furthermore, Cal Raleigh (27.8%) and Julio Rodríguez ( 24.5%) placed in the top-30.
Since reversing this trend will require outside help, I decided to identify trade candidates capable of being part of the solution. After the World Series, we’ll circle back to discuss free agents and potential additions to the bench.
My search placed a strong emphasis on three factors: strikeout rate, hard-hit rate, and batting average against breaking balls (AVG vs BB).
Obviously, decreasing strikeouts is a must. That said; the Mariners can ill-afford to sacrifice quality of contact to achieve this goal.
Look at it this way. In 2022, the low strikeout rates of Adam Frazier, Jesse Winker, and Abraham Toro were a positive. But their below-average hard-hit rates diminished the value of not whiffing often because too many of the trio’s batted balls didn’t have the necessary exit velocity to result in a base hit.
This year, Seattle hitters combined for a .206 AVG against curveballs, sliders, and sweepers - just five teams were worse. To this point, Rodríguez (.263) and Ty France (.238) were the lone regulars to be better than the league average versus the breaking stuff (.221)
Okay, let’s begin with a player generating a ton of trade chatter in the Seattle market lately.
Juan Soto, LF/RF - Padres
Selling points: Soto’s .424 OBP since the beginning of 2019 is the best in baseball. The next closest hitter was Freddie Freeman (.405). From a total production perspective, only Aaron Judge (169) and Yordan Alvarez (165) had a higher OPS+ than the native of the Dominican Republic (160) during this five-year span.
With 127 postseason plate appearances on his résumé, Soto is playoff-tested. As a 20-year-old, he propelled the Nationals to victory over the Astros in the 2019 World Series with three home runs and a .333/.438/.741 slash.
Potential concerns: Statcast’s Fielding Run Value rates the 25-year-old as a below-average left field defender.
LaMonte Wade Jr., 1B/LF/RF - Giants
Selling points: Wade’s .373 OBP was fourteenth-best among 133 qualified hitters. Only six players, including Soto (18.2%) and J.P. Crawford (14.7%), had a lower strikeout rate than the former Maryland Terrapin.
The 29-year-old primarily played first base for San Francisco in 2023. He also made 10 combined starts in left field and right field.
Potential concerns: Injuries have previously slowed Wade. In 2022, a knee issue cost him about 70 days. The year prior, an oblique strain sidelined the left-handed hitter for a month. That said; he did appear in a career-high 135 games this year.
Wade’s -4 fielding run value ranked twenty-fourth among first basemen. For context, France (-1) placed fourteenth.
Josh Naylor, 1B - Guardians
Selling points: Naylor appears to be very capable of succeeding at T-Mobile Park - even during cold and dreary early-season games. In 98 career appearances when the first-pitch temperature was under 50 degrees, the Canadian has slashed .299/.371/.414.
The left-handed hitter didn’t deliver as much power at home (Progressive Field). But his AVG and OBP were strikingly similar whether in Cleveland or on the road.
Naylor in 2023
Home - .309 AVG/.354 OBP/.450 SLG
Away - .306 AVG/.353 OBP/.526 SLG
Only 11 hitters with 450-plus plate appearances produced a lower strikeout rate than Naylor did (13.7%). The 12th overall draft pick of 2015 was significantly better than Seattle’s leader - France (17.6%).
Defensively, Naylor ranked third among MLB first basemen behind a pair of 2023 Gold Glove finalists - Christian Walker and Anthony Rizzo.
Potential concerns: Naylor has yet to play more than 122 games in a season. A fractured ankle ended his 2021 prematurely and delayed the beginning of the 2022 campaign. This year, an oblique strain cost the 26-year-old a month.
Naylor’s 39.5% chase rate was fourteenth-highest in MLB. This would’ve led the Mariners edging out Rodríguez (37.4%) and Hernández (35.2%).
Yandy Díaz, 1B/3B - Rays
Selling points: The AL batting champion was one of just four hitters with an AVG over .320 and more than 30 doubles and 20 home runs. The others were Freeman, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Corey Seager.
Díaz’s .385 AVG against breaking balls was the highest in MLB by a comfortable margin. NL batting champion Luis Arraez was runner-up with a .359 AVG.
The right-handed hitter demonstrated a knack for making loud contact without whiffing too much. Only three qualified hitters with a hard-hit rate greater than 45-percent had a lower strikeout rate than the Cuban did: Acuña (11.4%), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (14.7%), and Mookie Betts (15.4%).
Potential concerns: Defense hasn’t been a strength for Díaz. He ranked twentieth among first basemen in fielding run value this year. Similarly, the 32-year-old was twenty-fifth among third basemen in 2022.
Note: Tampa Bay holds a $12 million club option for 2026.
Randy Arozarena, LF - Rays
Selling points: If Arozarena were a Mariner in 2023, he would’ve been top-3 or better in OBP, SLG, OPS+, stolen bases, and walk rate. Furthermore, his above-average 28.4 ft/sec sprint speed would’ve been fifth-best behind Rodríguez (29.6), Sam Haggerty (29.2), José Caballero (29.0), Cade Marlowe (28.9), and Hernández (28.6).
Potential concerns: The 28-year-old had a dismal .148 AVG and .225 SLG when fed sliders and curveballs. Both stats ranked in the bottom-four of 191 hitters seeing over 500 of these pitches.
Arozarena’s defense ranked twentieth among left fielders - just behind Soto.
Pete Alonso, 1B - Mets
Selling points: Alonso is one of baseball’s premier home run hitters. The former Florida Gator’s 46 home runs were third-most in baseball, his .504 SLG was top-20.
Even Alonso’s power bat was suppressed by pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Yet, he still managed to hit 22 home runs and slug .470 in Flushing (24 HR and .537 SLG on the road). This is relevant considering Statcast ranks the Mets’ home field just two spots ahead of T-Mobile Park.
Potential concerns: Alonso experienced career lows in AVG, OBP, and hard-hit rate this year. Plus, his strikeout rate jumped over four percent.
It was feast or famine against sweepers and sliders for Alonso with the right-handed hitter having a .195 AVG and 34.5% strikeout rate. Yet, he posted a .504 SLG and hit the fourth-most home runs (12) when confronted with these breaking pitches.
Thoughts
Considering Seattle’s recent spending history, it’s reasonable to wonder how adding Soto’s projected $33 million salary for next season would influence the team’s offseason strategy.
The Mariners need to add multiple players to the roster. Would acquiring Soto discourage management from investing significant dollars to further improve the starting lineup, pitching staff, and bench?
He’s not a bopper, but Wade’s plate discipline and overall productivity make him an intriguing option. His ability to occasionally play the outfield is a bonus. Still, there’s risk associated with a 30-year-old, who’s appeared in over 130 games just once.
Naylor doesn’t strike out often, is productive in lousy weather, and plays above-average defense. This makes him an ideal fit for a Mariners team that ranked twenty-second in first base OPS.
Díaz’s presence might mean a step-back defensively for Seattle’s defense. But it’s hard to overlook his offensive production. Besides, designated hitter is always an option.
MLB Trade Rumors projects Arozarena will earn $9 million in his second of three remaining arbitration years. It’s conceivable the low-revenue Rays entertain moving him to manage payroll. After all, his salary will only continue to rise until he reaches free agency.
Perhaps the Mariners could broker a deal with Tampa Bay to acquire Arozarena and then approach him about signing an extension through or beyond his arbitration years.
We know the Mets aren’t cash-strapped like the Rays. But it’s plausible New York considers dealing Alonzo and his projected $22 million price tag this offseason. Especially if management is truly focusing on 2025 and can’t find common ground with the two-time Home Run Derby champion on a contract extension.
My Oh My…