Defending Julio Rodríguez
Some fans are judging Julio too harshly. At least, that's how I see it.
In his first three big-league seasons, Julio Rodríguez has been Rookie of the Year, won two Silver Slugger awards, and appeared in a pair of All-Star games - all before reaching his 24th birthday. Yet, a vocal segment of Mariners Twitter is not impressed.
Complaints about Rodríguez include he’s regressing, not clutch, overrated, and overpaid. Quite a mouthful for a player with a career 128 wRC+, which happens to be fifth best among Mariners with at least 2,000 plate appearances.
Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) quantifies how a hitter’s total offensive value compares with the league average after adjusting for park effects. League-average is always 100. Therefore, a wRC+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 wRC+ would be 20-percent below average.
Personally, I don’t get the Julio bashing. He’s the most talented Mariner and one of the most valuable contributors on the team. Let’s turn to the numbers.
Then and now
The contention that Rodríguez has slipped is true. After boasting an eighth-best wRC+ as a rookie, his wRC+ fell to 54th place last season. Entering today, 70 qualified hitters were better than the All-Star center fielder.
Still, Rodríguez’s history suggests he may be positioned to have a monster summer. To see what I mean, let’s compare his 2025 season to previous campaigns at the same point.
Following Saturday’s win against the Guardians, Rodríguez had played in 68 contests. A review of his production through game-68 in 2022-2024 reveals the native of the Dominican Republic has similar numbers to his ballyhooed freshman year.
There’s no guarantee that Rodríguez’s final stat line will resemble or be better than what he did in 2022. A lot of things, both good and bad, can happen between now and the end of September. However, the right-handed hitter producing at a similar level to his magical rookie campaign is encouraging.
Another factor fueling my optimism is Rodríguez’s record over the final three months of 2022-2024. Between July and October, his wRC+ ranked no worse than 18th in any of the three seasons. Perhaps we’ll see more of the same as the temperatures rise in the Emerald City.
It’s worth noting Rodríguez has already begun to heat up. Entering Father’s Day, he boasted a .315 AVG, .339 OBP, and .450 SLG with a 129 wRC+ in 115 plate appearances dating back to May 16. Not a large sample, but noteworthy nonetheless.
Heck of a center fielder
Rightfully so, a large emphasis is placed on Rodríguez’s production at the plate. But we shouldn’t overlook his contributions as a defender.
Since debuting in 2022, Rodríguez has logged significantly more center field innings than anyone in MLB. This is a testament to his durability, productivity, and value to the Mariners.
Most CF Innings (2022-25)
Julio Rodríguez (4,204.1)
Michael Harris II (3,791)
Cedric Mullins (3,716)
Leody Taveras (3,449)
Trent Grisham (3,357.1)
Luis Robert Jr. (3,309.1)
Jake Meyers (2,899.1)
Myles Straw (2,811.1)
Michael A. Taylor (2,790)
Brenton Doyle (2,744.2)
This season, Rodríguez (602 innings) only trails Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs (627.2) and Atlanta’s Michael Harris II (604.1). Once again, Rodríguez is logging a ton of innings at one of baseball’s most demanding positions, while continuing to perform at a high level.
Rodríguez’s defensive acumen harkens back to other great Mariner center field defenders such as Ken Griffey Jr., Mike Cameron, and Franklin Gutiérrez. I realize comparing Rodríguez to Griffey in any manner is destined to annoy some fans. But Seattle’s current center fielder rates extremely well when compared to his contemporaries.
Dating back to 2022, only two players have accrued more OAA than Rodríguez (36) - Jose Siri (39) and Jake Meyers (37).
Outs Above Average (OAA) is a range-based metric that quantifies how many outs a defender has saved compared to the average player. League-average is always ZERO. Source: Baseball Savant
It’s important to note that OAA is a counting stat. Therefore, playing the most innings at the position since 2022 does provide a distinct advantage to Rodríguez. That said, his eight OAA is seventh best among all position players this year.
Not only does Rodríguez have exceptional range, he has a “rocket for an arm,” as Frank Costanza once said about Mariners Hall of Famer Jay Buhner. Rodríguez’s arm strength is 15th best in MLB and ranks seventh among his center field peers.
Perhaps Griffey and Cameron were superior to Rodríguez. But he’s currently one of baseball’s best defensive center fielders with the Mariners reaping the benefits on a regular basis. That’s all that really matters.
A disruptor on the bases
Through Flag Day, Rodríguez shared the team lead in stolen bases with Randy Arozarena. Not a surprise considering Rodríguez is the fastest Mariner. The fourth-year player also has the ninth most bolts in baseball. Statcast defines a “bolt” as any run with a sprint speed of 30 feet-per-second or greater, which is considered elite.
What I’m trying to say is that Rodríguez is really fast.
This means WAR!
Rodríguez’s wRC+ is ninth-highest among center fielders, which won’t excite his critics. But when we include contributions as a defender and runner in the conversation, the 2022 AL Rookie of the Year is the second most valuable player at the position.
Whether we use the FanGraphs or Baseball Reference version of WAR, Rodríguez’s 3.3 bWAR and 2.5 fWAR are second-best among center fielders behind Crow-Armstrong.
“Wins Above Replacement (WAR) measures a player's value in all facets of the game by deciphering how many more wins he's worth than a replacement-level player at his same position (e.g., a Minor League replacement or a readily available fill-in free agent).” - MLB.com
We won’t go down the rabbit hole of discussing which version of WAR is better. But consider this. Rodríguez’s bWAR is sixth best in baseball, his fWAR ranks 18th. Either way, he’s among the 20 most valuable players in MLB.
That’s good, right?
Not a superstar!
A recurring gripe about Rodríguez is that he’s not a “superstar.” Therefore, he’s not worth the big contract the Mariners gave him. We’ll get to his salary momentarily. But first, what exactly is a superstar?
Dictionary.com defines a superstar as “a person, such as a performer or athlete, who enjoys wide recognition, is esteemed for exceptional talent, and is eagerly sought after for their services.” Rodríguez fits this description.
Rodríguez is well-known in baseball and the face of the Mariners franchise. Moreover, he’s extremely talented and would be in high demand if he were a free agent or available in the trade market. Still, how many superstars does MLB actually have?
The answer depends on the eye of the beholder. Personally, my list of current superstars is relatively short. Maybe yours is longer. Hitters immediately coming to mind include Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, and Francisco Lindor. These players are on a path leading to the Hall of Fame.
Rodríguez doesn’t appear destined for enshrinement in Cooperstown, although that could change. Therefore, he’s not a superstar for me at this time. But he’s a great Mariner and vital to the team’s overall success.
About that contract
For me, the most confounding aspect of the Rodríguez discourse is his long-term contract extension with the Mariners. The deal irks some fans and I don’t get it.
Let’s begin by considering the terms of Rodríguez’s extension. Please note that the details we’re about to discuss can be found at Spotrac and are based on the reporting of ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
The annual average value (AAV) during the first seven years of Rodríguez’s pact with Seattle is $17.4 million. A reasonable amount by baseball standards.
Remember, Rodríguez’s value is top-20, regardless of which version of WAR you fancy. As a run producer, we acknowledged earlier that he was 54th best last year. And guess what? His AAV ranks 54th among all position players with 15 outfielders ahead of him. I fail to see how Rodriguez is overpaid.
As for the option years of Rodríguez’s contract, his AAV remains at-or-near $17.4 million unless he meets performance-based milestones, which the following illustration details.
Since Rodríguez already has two top-10 MVP finishes, his annual salary will jump to $25 million five years from now. That’s right, 2030 and not a moment before. This assumes Seattle exercises its option following the 2028 season.
If the Mariners don’t pick up Rodríguez’s option, he could exercise a five-year player option with an AAV of $18 million. Again, there are performance-related escalators that can sweeten the pot up to $25 million. However, a 29-year-old who hits those prerequisite milestones and has been rejected by his team likely tests free agency.
To me, Rodriguez’s contract is very club friendly. His pay ranks much lower than the overall value he’s provided this season. And from a historical perspective, the 24-year-old’s AAV compares well to other Mariners dating back to 2011.
Highest AAV of Mariners (2011-25)
Félix Hernández ($25 million)
Robinson Canó (24 million)
Robbie Ray ($23 million)
Luis Castillo ($21.6 million)
Ichiro Suzuki ($18 million)
Cal Raleigh ($17.5 million)
Julio Rodríguez ($17.4 million)
One more thought on Rodríguez’s salary. A considerable number of fans believe the Mariners don’t spend enough on payroll. Yet, some of the same people complaining about the team’s spending habits are expressing buyer’s remorse after it invested in a player on the brink of earning Rookie of the Year honors. This makes no sense to me. You can’t have it both ways, folks.
The bigger picture
Just to be clear, fans are entitled to fan however they please. But I can’t fathom being so sour on someone as talented and valuable as Rodríguez.
Sure, it’d be great if Rodríguez was a top-10 player. But there’s still time for him to ascend to that level. After all, he’s just reaching the 500th game of his big-league career and is already one of baseball’s best center fielders. Therefore, it’s reasonable to expect that the best is yet to come.
I also believe we should keep the big picture in focus. In early May, Rodríguez was one of several high-profile Seattle-area athletes targeted in a robbery spree. He recently spoke to the media, including Daniel Kramer of MLB, about the attempted burglary of his residence, which occurred while he was away and his girlfriend was home alone.
“It was a very difficult time for me and my family, to be honest. And obviously, like, they just [made it public] now, but it happened a while back ago. And that's a lot of the things that kind of happened behind the scenes that a lot of people don't know. But it was very difficult, man, at times to be out there. Very scary.” - Julio Rodríguez
Obviously, any of us could be a crime victim. So, I’m not going to make Rodríguez’s situation sound more important than anyone else’s just because he’s a baseball player. But several aspects of his story stood out to me.
First, Rodríguez was willing to publicly discuss a deeply personal and traumatic event. It would be understandable if he chose to keep the matter private. It turns out that he’s just a human being like the rest of us.
Furthermore, Rodríguez didn’t allow something awful that happened away from the ballpark affect his play. Quite the opposite. Since the burglary attempt on May 1, he’s produced a .306 AVG, .335 OBP, and .463 SLG with a 131 wRC+.
Finally, Rodríguez’s enthusiasm for the game and interaction with fans haven’t diminished since May 1. This is admirable considering his popularity likely played a role in being targeted for robbery. How many of us would keep smiling knowing someone broke into our home and could’ve harmed a loved one just six weeks ago?
Closing argument
It’s true. Julio Rodríguez’s offensive performance isn’t what it was in his first two seasons. However, he remains an above-average run producer, an elite defender, and a disruptive force on the bases. It’s also worth noting Rodríguez signed a long-term deal that’s below market value.
Not only that, Rodríguez has been an upstanding member of the community who plays the game with unbridled joy - even when he’s confronted with personal adversity. Who wouldn’t want a player with so many positive qualities on their team?
The defense rests.
My Oh My…
Having been the victim of a home invasion (while we were home), the trauma of those events is real. It's not quite accurate, but it's a little like the after-effects of being in a significant earthquake (something I've also experienced). The ground moved, and for some time after that you don't trust the ground.
Also leads the team in Hits and a close second in Runs. Too many hits are singles but that's a guy you want on base no matter how. If he picks up his slugging, he's in superstar category or damn near it.