AL West Primer: Astros
For the first time since 2016, Houston missed the postseason. Does the club rebound or regress this year?
We’ve already discussed the Angels and the Athletics. Now, let’s consider an Astros team that dominated the AL for a decade before stumbling in 2025.
Unusually low run production undermined Houston. Two seasons ago, the lineup scored the 11th most runs before sinking to 21st last year. Its strikeout rate also exceeded 20-percent for the first time since 2016 when the team last missed the playoffs.
Fortunately, Houston had a ninth-place ranking in runs allowed. That said, injuries exacted a heavy toll on the rotation. Just two Astros made more than 15 starts.
Despite the health-related adversity, the rotation’s 70 quality starts were third most in MLB. Not only that, its .306 xwOBA was fourth best. Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) relies on quality of contact and removes defense from the equation.
The bullpen generated the best strikeout rate and ranked second in xwOBA, AVG, and WHIP. It’s worth noting the group’s 33.5-percent ground ball rate was the lowest in baseball, while its 3.3-percent home run rate was fifth highest.
Defensively, the Astros’ Fielding Run Value (FRV) was eighth best in baseball. The infield ranked third, while the outfield was ninth. However, catchers were 22nd-ranked.
Notable departures: Framber Valdez (SP), Chas McCormick (OF), Mauricio Dubón (UTL), Brendan Rodgers (IF), Victor Caratini (C), Craig Kimbrel (RP), Kaleb Ort (RP)
Position players
Looking towards the upcoming year, first baseman Christian Walker and second baseman Jose Altuve enter their age-35 and age-36 seasons, respectively. Both showed signs of potential regression in 2025.
Walker averaged a 122 OPS+ in three previous seasons with Arizona, which suggests he was 22-percent more productive than the average hitter. Last year, the 11-year veteran had a 97 OPS+.
Something else to consider. Daikin Park seemingly suppressed Walker’s power. He slugged .342 with eight home runs in Houston and had a .482 SLG and 19 dingers on the road. It’ll be interesting to see whether this extreme split continues.
Even Walker’s defense seemed to slide. In 2024, he won a third consecutive Gold Glove when his 10 FRV was highest among NL first basemen. Last year’s 2 FRV was above average, but not elite as it had been with the Diamondbacks.
Altuve remained an above-average run producer. However, output has fallen since 2022 when his 163 OPS+ was fourth best in baseball. Last year, the nine-time All-Star had a relatively modest 112 OPS+.
Key Contributors (and 2025 OPS+)
1B - Christian Walker (97)
2B - Jose Altuve (112)
SS - Jeremy Peña (132)
3B - Carlos Correa (117)
IF - Isaac Paredes (123)
LF - Taylor Trammell (75)+
CF - Jake Meyers (103)
RF - Cam Smith (87)
C - Yainer Diaz (92)
DH - Yordan Alvarez (121)
+ Not on 40-man roster
At 31, third baseman Carlos Correa isn’t as “elderly” as Walker and Altuve. But his OPS+ dropped 49 points to 103 last year and he has an extensive injury history. Since 2022, Correa has averaged 122 games annually.
Shortstop Jeremy Peña is Houston’s best position player and an above-average defender. Peña suffered a fractured finger in the World Baseball Classic. His Opening Day status is unknown.
Then, there’s Isaac Paredes - the infielder without a home. The 27-year-old was acquired to play third base last winter and was enjoying a strong season until a hamstring injury cost him most of the second half. His absence spurred Houston to acquire Correa, leaving Paredes without a permanent spot.
The outfield situation is unclear since manager Joe Espada hasn’t named starters.
Opening Day center fielder Jake Meyers had a .292 AVG and .354 OBP in 102 games until a calf injury sidelined him for two months. Despite missing a third of the season, his FRV was eighth best among center fielders.
Cam Smith was a Gold Glove finalist as a rookie right fielder. However, Smith will need to improve on a 27.8-percent strikeout rate that led to an 87 OPS+.
Other outfield candidates include offseason pickup Joey Loperfido, youngsters Zach Cole, Zach Dezenzo, Brice Matthews and non-roster invite Taylor Trammell. There’s also talk of Yordan Alvarez playing in left field. But based on his offensive value and injury history, designated hitter makes more sense.
Since 2021, just three players with 2,000 plate appearances have a better OPS+ than Alvarez - Aaron Judge (196), Shohei Ohtani (171), and Juan Soto (163). Unfortunately, Alvarez and his 161 OPS+ averaged just 118 games annually during this span.
Catcher Yainer Diaz experienced a sharp decline in offensive production last year. Compounding matters, Statcast rated Diaz as a below average framer.
Notable Reserves (and 2025 OPS+)
C - César Salazar (MiLB)
IF - Nick Allen (53)
OF- Zach Cole (MiLB)
IF/OF - Zach Dezenzo (MiLB)
IF/OF - Brice Matthews (MiLB)
IF/OF - Shay Whitcomb (MiLB)
OF - Taylor Trammell (75)+
C- Christian Vázquez (52)+
IF/OF - Cavan Biggio (55)+
C/1B - Carlos Pérez (MiLB)+
C/1B - Collin Price (MiLB)+
C - John Garcia (MiLB)+
C/1B - Garret Guillemette (MiLB)+
IF/OF - Jax Biggers (MiLB)+
IF/OF - Riley Unroe (MiLB)+
OF - Joseph Sullivan (MiLB)+
+ Not on 40-man roster
César Salazar is the current backup catcher, although Salazar has just 36 games of MLB experience. Perhaps non-roster invite Christian Vázquez ends up getting the job. The 35-year-old was an Astro in 2022 and has always been a plus defender.
Veteran infielder Nick Allen has an unappealing career 55 OPS+. But his 12 FRV at shortstop last year was elite. Then again, a youngster with more offensive upside may inevitably be a better choice than Allen.
Starting Rotation
Last season, Hunter Brown was top-10 in multiple categories including xwOBA, ERA, AVG, K%, and WHIP. After the Cy Young Award finalist, the rotation gets squishy.
Cristian Javier made eight starts after returning from Tommy John surgery in August. The club is counting on Javier to regain his pre-injury form in 2026.
Spencer Arrighetti suffered an early-season broken thumb. The 26-year-old would return in August only to be shut down after five starts due to elbow inflammation. In 2024, Arrighetti made 28 starts with a 4.53 ERA and .314 xwOBA.
This offseason, the Astros signed Tatsuya Imai, Ryan Weiss, and Nate Pearson. With the Saitama Seibu Lions of the JPPL, Imai averaged 25 starts and 168 innings with a 2.13 ERA over the last two seasons.
Weiss has yet to make his MLB debut. In 2025, he made 30 starts and logged 178.2 innings with the Hanwha Eagles of the KBO.
Houston is converting Pearson into a starter; the role he debuted in with Toronto in 2020. The 29-year-old is ramping up following an offseason elbow procedure. His availability for the season opener is in doubt.
The team also traded for Mike Burrows, who had an average-ish 4.15 ERA and .322 xwOBA in 19 starts with Pittsburgh. That said, opponents had a suboptimal 10.8-percent barrel rate against Burrows.
Starter stable (and 2025 xwOBA)
Hunter Brown (.277)
Cristian Javier (.286)
Spencer Arrighetti (INJ)
Tatsuya Imai (JPPL)
Mike Burrows (.322)
Lance McCullers Jr. (INJ)
Ryan Weiss (KBO)
Nate Pearson (MiLB)
Jason Alexander (.339)
AJ Blubaugh (MiLB)
J.P. France (INJ)+
Ronel Blanco (INJ)
Hayden Wesneski (INJ)
+ Not on 40-man roster
The Astros likely use six starters early in the year. Imai was accustomed to pitching every sixth game in Japan. Plus, the team has a condensed schedule with 26 contests in the first 28 days of the season. This strategy may also benefit oft-injured Lance McCullers Jr., who was on the IL four times in 2025.
Bullpen
Closer Josh Hader owned the lowest xwOBA among relievers in 2025. He starts the year on the IL with a bicep issue after a shoulder strain ended his season last August.
Another banged up reliever, former Mariners farmhand Enyel De Los Santos, is recovering from a right knee strain and expected to face hitters soon.
Bryan Abreu will close games during Hader’s absence. Excellent holdovers Steven Okert, Bennett Sousa, and Bryan King will be responsible for getting the ball to Abreu.
Kai-Wei Teng started seven games for San Francisco in 2025. Perhaps the 27-year-old serves as a multi-inning relief option and rotational depth.
Reliever pool (and 2025 xwOBA)
Josh Hader (.221)
Bryan Abreu (.289)
Bryan King (.274)
Bennett Sousa (.266)
Steven Okert (.253)
Enyel De Los Santos (.316)
Kai-Wei Teng (.311)
Jayden Murray (MiLB)
Roddery Muñoz (MiLB) ++
Peter Lambert (JPCL)+
Logan VanWey (MiLB)+
Tom Cosgrove (MiLB)+
Christian Roa (MiLB)+
Amos Willingham (MiLB)+
+ Not on 40-man roster
++ Rule 5 draft pick
Rule 5 pick Roddery Muñoz could make the Opening Day roster. If this happens, Muñoz must remain with Houston all season or he must be offered back to the Reds.
Beginning the season without Hader and possibly De Los Santos would unduly pressurize the bullpen. Perhaps an unheralded arm, like Muñoz, fills a greater role. We’ve seen this happen several times in Seattle over the last half decade.
Outlook
For an 87-win team returning eight hitters from last year’s Opening Day lineup, there is a surprising amount of uncertainty.
The thirty-something infielders regressed. Yet, the team reportedly wanted to trade Paredes this winter. This nerd believes Houston would be better served by keeping him. Paredes is younger and more productive than Walker, Altuve, and Correa.
The Astros also lack an established outfielder. Meyers is a superb defender with a 90 OPS+ in over 1,500 plate appearances. He too is the subject of trade rumors. Smith is extremely talented and could become a star. But like everyone else, he’s unproven.
And then there’s the rotation. Replacing the quality and quantity Framber Valdez provided won’t be easy. Perhaps someone from the group of Imai, Arrighetti, McCullers, Burrow, Weiss, and Pearson will rise to fill the void. But color me a skeptic.
Houston led the AL West as late as September 17 last year and shouldn’t be dismissed from consideration as a postseason contender. Having said that, it’s been a very long time since I’ve been this low on the Astros in March.
My Oh My…