AL West Primer: Athletics
The A's have an exciting young core of hitters. But is there enough pitching on hand to compete for a postseason berth?
We’ve already covered the Angels in our AL West primer series. Let’s turn our attention to the Athletics.
During their first season in Sacramento, the A’s had a 41-57 record at the All-Star break. The club ultimately improved to finish fourth in the AL West with 76 wins.
Offense was a strength. The lineup produced the same batting average as the reigning World Series champion Dodgers. Moreover, just three clubs – the Yankees (.455), Dodgers (.441), and Phillies (.433) had a higher slugging percentage than the A’s.
Pitching was a completely different story. The Athletics surrendered a lot of home runs. The staff also provided too many free passes via the walk and wasn’t proficient at generating strikeouts.
It’s worth noting the bullpen significantly improved later in the year. The .295 xwOBA of A’s relievers in the second half was fifth best in baseball. A rapid departure from a 28th-ranked .329 xwOBA prior to the All-Star Game.
Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) uses quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle) to determine what should’ve happened to batted balls. A key advantage to xwOBA is defense (good or bad) doesn’t influence it. This gives us a truer sense of how a hitter or pitcher is performing. MLB league-average xwOBA last year = .316
Something else to consider. The Athletics allowed the third most runs by a home team. But they permitted 73 fewer runs on the road - nearly a run less per-game. That said, there was a late-season improvement.
Sacramento’s Home ERA
First half - 5.40
Second half - 4.30
One more thing. The A’s offense was productive regardless of location. It scored 368 runs at Sutter Health Park and 365 on the road.
Notable departures: José Leclerc (RP), Sean Newcomb (RP), JJ Bleday (CF), Ken Waldichuk (SP), Max Schuemann (IF), Mitch Spence (SP), Grant Holman (RP), Jason Alexander (SP)
Position players
Jeff McNeil joins a young infield to play second base, which he did 79 times with the Mets last year. The 33-year-old also started 35 contests in the outfield, including 28 in center field. Injuries kept him from reaching 130 games in 2024 and 2025. McNeil also underwent a thoracic outlet procedure in the offseason.
AL Rookie of the Year winner Nick Kurtz and runner-up Jacob Wilson, are at first base and shortstop, respectively. Max Muncy and Darell Hernaiz appear to be the top candidates for third base. All four players are 24-or-younger.
Kurtz clobbered 36 home runs in 117 games. Just two hitters with 450 plate appearances, bested his 173 OPS+. They were Aaron Judge (215) and Shohei Ohtani (179). Seattle’s Cal Raleigh (169) finished right behind the rookie.
On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) is a normalized version of OPS that adjusts for park and league conditions. OPS+ is scaled so 100 is always league-average. As a result, an OPS+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 OPS+ would be 20-percent below average.
Wilson had a 7.5-percent strikeout rate that was second best in MLB behind Luis Arráez (3.1-percent). However, the 23-year-old didn’t make a lot of quality contact. His hard-hit and barrel rates were both bottom-10.
A wrist injury cost Muncy two months in 2025. When available, he generated a below-average 75 OPS+. Hernaiz was an injury call-up at shortstop when Wilson was out for a month. The 24-year-old subsequently started 28 contests at second base and third base. As with Muncy, Hernaiz’s 67 OPS+ wasn’t good.
Key Position Players (and 2025 OPS+)
1B - Nick Kurtz (173)
2B - Jeff McNeil (111)
SS - Jacob Wilson (121)
3B - Max Muncy (75) / Darell Hernaiz (67)
LF - Tyler Soderstrom (126)
CF - Denzel Clarke (78)
RF - Lawrence Butler (96)
C - Shea Langeliers (134)
DH/LF - Brent Rooker (123)
Tyler Soderstrom and Lawrence Butler return in the corner outfield spots. Soderstrom had a tremendous year with 34 doubles, 25 home runs, and a 126 OPS+.
Unfortunately, Butler regressed from an outstanding 131 OPS+ in 2024 to a below-average 96 last year. Moreover, his strikeout rate increased to 28.4-percent. It should be noted that after the 2025 campaign the 25-year-old had a procedure on his right patella tendon and received a platelet-rich plasma injection in the other knee.
Projected center fielder Denzel Clarke is an outstanding defender (11 FRV in just 384 innings) with top-20 sprint speed. But a 78 OPS+ and 38.4-percent strikeout rate in 159 plate appearances does provide reason to pause. Also, an abductor strain limited the 25-year-old to three games after the All-Star break.
Fielding Run Value (FRV) is Statcast's metric for capturing a player’s overall measurable defensive performance. ZERO is always average.
Brent Rooker likely plays designated hitter most days, although he did start 27 times in a corner outfield spot last year. Still, his minus-3 FRV in the small sample of 216 innings hints that DH may be the best spot for the 31-year-old. Offensively, Rooker and Pete Alonso were the only hitters to hit 30 home runs and 40 doubles in 2025.
Behind the plate, Shea Langeliers possesses a potent bat. His 134 OPS+ tied with former Mariner Jorge Polanco for 20th best last year. Furthermore, he was one of two catchers with at least 30 doubles and 30 home runs. The other was Salvador Perez.
Notable Reserves (and 2025 OPS+)
C- Austin Wynns (132)
IF - Andy Ibáñez (81)
OF - Carlos Cortes (MiLB)
OF - Colby Thomas (86)
2B - Zack Gelof (39)
IF - CJ Alexander (MiLB)
3B - Brett Harris (MiLB)
OF - Junior Perez (MiLB)
C/1B - Shane McGuire (MiLB)+
C- Bryan Lavastida ((MiLB)+
C - Chad Wallach (MiLB )+
C - Brian Serven (MiLB)+
1B/RF - Joey Meneses (MiLB)+
IF - Euribiel Angeles (MiLB)+
IF - Michael Stefanic (MiLB)+
IF - Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (MiLB)+
IF - Leo De Vries (MiLB)+
OF - Henry Bolte (MiLB)+
OF - Clark Elliott (MiLB)+
OF - Cade Marlowe (MiLB)+
OF - Ryan Lasko (MiLB)+
+ Not on 40-man roster
Backup catcher Austin Wynns produced a superb 132 OPS+ with the Reds and A’s last season. But Wynns had an 85 OPS+ and missed the final two months of the season with an injury after joining Sacramento in June.
With Detroit and Class-AAA Toledo last season, Andy Ibáñez started games at every infield position and right field. Ibáñez had a low 81 OPS+. But his work in the field resulted in 2 FRV.
Zack Gelof is recovering from shoulder surgery and not expected to be ready for Opening Day. It’ll be interesting to see how manager Mark Kotsay uses the 26-year-old with McNeil taking over at second base. As a rookie in 2023, Gelof hit 20 doubles and 14 home runs with a 134 wRC+ in 69 games. Since then, he has a 75 OPS+ in 168 contests.
Starting Rotation
Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs return after pitching 160-plus innings. Severino, who missed three weeks in August with an oblique strain, was significantly better away from home. At Sutter Health Park, he had a 6.01 ERA compared to a 3.02 ERA on the road.
Springs also experienced a noticeable split. At home, opponents produced a .769 OPS against him and a .666 OPS away from the “City of Trees.”
Newcomer Aaron Civale made 23 appearances, including 18 starts, for the Brewers, White Sox, and Cubs last year. It should be mentioned the Cubs used the 30-year-old solely as a reliever in the final month of the season. Perhaps this small sample is a nothing-burger. But Civale was more effective out of the bullpen (.286 xwOBA, 28% strikeout rate) than as a starter (.318 xwOBA, 19.2% strikeout rate).
Based on their experience with the team last season, Jacob Lopez and Luis Morales seem to make sense for the final two rotation spots. Lopez appeared in 22 games (17 starts) posting a 4.08 ERA and a .297 xwOBA. Morales had a superb 3.09 ERA in nine starts. But his average-ish .322 xwOBA makes me skeptical of the ERA.
Starter Stable (and 2025 xwOBA)
Luis Severino (.331)
Jeffrey Springs (.321)
Aaron Civale (.314)
Jacob Lopez (.297)
Luis Morales (.322)
Jack Perkins (.297)
Gunnar Hoglund (.408)
Joey Estes (.364)
J.T. Ginn (.310)
Mason Barnett (MiLB)
Braden Nett (MiLB)
Henry Baez (MiLB)
Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang (MiLB)
Gage Jump (MiLB)+
Kade Morris (MiLB)+
Yunior Tur (MiLB)+
Domingo Robles (MiLB)+
Wei-En Lin (MiLB)+
Kenya Huggins (MiLB)+
Jamie Arnold (NCAA)+
+ Not on 40-man roster
Other potential candidates include pitchers who started for Sacramento last year: J.T. Ginn, Gunnar Hoglund, Mason Barnett and Jack Perkins. Perhaps top-100 prospect Gage Jump can help the team in some capacity this year.
Bullpen
Kotsay isn’t going to name a closer. He’ll likely lean on some combination of newcomers Mark Leiter Jr. and Scott Barlow, plus Hogan Harris, Michael Kelly, and Elvis Alvarado to cover late-inning duties.
Bullpen pool (and 2025 xwOBA)
Hogan Harris (.289)
Justin Sterner (.278)
Mark Leiter Jr. (.301)
Michael Kelly (.301)
Scott Barlow (.323)
Elvis Alvarado (.305)
Brady Basso (.307)
Tyler Ferguson (.296)
Eduarniel Núñez (MiLB)
CD Pelham (MiLB)
Luis Medina (INJ)
Nick Anderson (MiLB)+
A.J. Causey (MiLB)+
Gustavo Rodriguez (MiLB)+
Joel Kuhnel (MiLB)+
Geoff Hartlieb (MiLB)+
Wander Suero (MiLB)+
Brooks Kriske (MiLB)+
Ben Bowden (MiLB)+
Nick Hernandez (MiLB)+
Matt Krook (MiLB)+
JJ Goss (MiLB)+
+ Not on 40-man roster
Outlook
The Athletics should be better than the Angels in the AL West. But to contend, they must accomplish two things.
The lineup will have to build upon last year’s success. This requires good health, growth from its young stable of hitters, and the bats of Rooker and McNeil remaining productive. If Butler and Gelof return to their rookie form, even better.
This may be a big ask for starting pitchers whose home field had the highest SLG on fly balls last year. But more is needed. Civale was the lone addition to a rotation that ranked 27th in ERA and 25th in xwOBA. Perhaps the young guys emerge. But they are unproven, unlike their position player counterparts.
I suspect the A’s will be fun to watch in 2026. But eventually, they will fall short of a postseason berth. That said, Sacramento likely makes its division rivals uncomfortable throughout the season.
Including the Mariners.
My Oh My…