What about Gavin Lux?

Could the Dodgers' abundance of infielders lead to the Mariners finding a second baseman?

Morry Gash / AP Images

With the Dodgers and free agent infielder Hyeseong Kim agreeing to terms on a contract, Los Angeles boasts a deep stable of infield-experienced players. Is it possible the team would consider leveraging this depth to improve another part of its roster?

Hard to know. But the Dodgers’ 40-man roster currently lists Kim, Gavin Lux, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Mookie Betts, and Miguel Rojas as infielders. Moreover, former Mariner Chris Taylor and Tommy Edman - both classified as outfielders - have extensive infield experience. That’s a lot of names.

The player in this group intriguing me most is Lux.

This assumes the Dodgers would be amenable to moving an infielder - that might not be the case. I’m also guessing the organization has zero interest in trading Freeman, Betts, Muncy, or Edman, who recently signed a contract extension. This leaves us with Rojas, Taylor, and Lux to consider.

Rojas, who’ll be entering his age-36 season, had a career-year in 2024. But he dealt with health-related challenges. They included a forearm strain that landed him on the IL and a sports hernia, which affected his postseason availability and required offseason surgery to correct. Per Spotrac, the 11-year veteran is set to make $5 million in 2025.

As for Taylor, he’s coming off his worst season as a Dodger in terms of availability and productivity. The 34-year-old missed a month with a groin strain and delivered a .202 AVG/.298 OBP/.300 SLG when he did play. Spotrac lists Taylor’s salary for this year at $13 million with a $12 million club option or a $4 million buyout for 2026.

And that brings us to Lux.

Selling points: After a slow start to the 2024 campaign, Lux’s bat heated up in the summer. In the second half of the season, the left-handed hitter produced a 154 wRC+ in 210 plate appearances. Just two Dodgers were ahead of him: Shohei Ohtani (180) and Muncy (158). The lone Mariner with a better second-half wRC+ than Lux was Luke Raley (159).

Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) quantifies how a hitter’s total offensive value compares with the league average after adjusting for park effects. League-average is always 100. Therefore, a wRC+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 wRC+ would be 20-percent below average.

Lux’s average-ish production numbers may not enthuse some fans. But his presence on the Mariners’ roster would represent a potential upgrade at second base over what the team received from the position in 2024.

This nerd nugget is a little off the beaten path. But Lux had a 19.3-percent fly ball rate last season. Among 237 players with at least 250 batted balls, only 19 produced fly balls less frequently than the two-time World Series winner did. And why might this matter?

Dating back to the beginning of the 2021 season, only two venues produced a lower AVG on fly balls than T-Mobile Park (.243). They were Comerica Park (.234) and the now-retired Oakland Coliseum (.239). The MLB AVG during this four-year window was .269.

Since debuting in 2019, Lux has demonstrated some level of positional versatility. Primarily a second baseman with 270 starts at the keystone, the Wisconsin native has also started 50 contests at shortstop, another 34 in left field, and six in center field.

Over his last three seasons, Lux had a 21.5-percent strikeout rate, which aligns closely to the league average. During this span, he struck out noticeably more often at Dodger Stadium (23-percent) than on the road (19.6-percent).

Selected 20th-overall in 2016, just two first rounders have accrued a higher bWAR than Lux (7.6). They are teammate Will Smith (18.4) and Rockies reliever Cal Quantrill (8.2).

Potential concerns: Lux experienced a decline in sprint speed from 2023 when it was 28.8 feet-per-second to last season (27.7 feet-per-second). Perhaps this is attributable to an ACL tear that cost him the entire 2023 season.

In 2021-22, Lux accrued seven OAA, which was 14th-best among 41 qualified second basemen. But last season, his minus-2 OAA ranked 26th of 37 among peers. This suggests a decrease in range. As with sprint speed, it’s plausible a reduction in mobility has something to do with the ACL injury.

Lux’s OAA at 2B

2019 (1)
2020 (1)
2021 (4)
2022 (3)
2024 (minus-2)

Outs Above Average (OAA) is a range-based metric that shows how many outs a player has saved. League-average is always ZERO. Source: Baseball Savant

During his big-league career, Lux has been far more productive against right-handed pitching (.264 AVG/.337 OBP/.408 SLG) than southpaws (.202/.279/.274).

Thoughts: Since he’s still relatively young, Lux’s speed and range could return to pre-2023 levels as he distances himself from that knee injury.

It’s worth noting a newly-released Statcast metric suggests Lux was adept at taking an extra base when the opportunity presented itself last season. Furthermore, the Indian Trail High School product would’ve paced the Mariners in this category. This was accomplished despite being slower than in years past.

It’s true that Lux was a slightly below-average defender in 2024. But to put things into perspective for Mariners fans, he was still significantly better than Seattle’s regular second baseman. Jorge Polanco ranked 37 of 37 with minus-10 OAA.

As for his draft pedigree, I’d be remiss if I didn’t note several recognizable position players selected in later rounds of the 2016 draft have delivered more value to their respective teams than Lux has. This group includes Pete Alonso (19.8 bWAR), Bryan Reynolds (19.5), Edman (17.9), Bo Bichette (17.5), Sean Murphy (13.3), and 13th-rounder Nathaniel Lowe (11.5).

Something else to mull over. For three consecutive winters, I’ve suggested Adam Frazier, Kolten Wong, and Polanco each represented a potential upgrade at second base over what Seattle had the season prior. None met expectations.

Still, Lux is several years younger than Frazier, Wong, and Polanco were when they became Mariners. Not only that, his expected salary would fit well into Seattle’s reportedly limited budget.

Lux is entering his second year of arbitration eligibility with MLB Trade Rumors projecting a $2.7 million salary. This assumes both parties don’t agree to a contract prior to meeting with an arbiter.

From a production and financial perspective, Lux makes sense for the Mariners in 2025 and beyond with a platoon looking like the best way to maximize his skills. Whether Seattle’s baseball operations department, which is teeming with people much smarter than me, agrees is unclear.

Also uncertain, the Dodgers’ appetite to trade a relatively inexpensive former first rounder, who may be primed for a breakout now that he’s healthy and possesses an extra year of big-league experience.

My Oh My…