Three positions the Mariners should address at the deadline
Seattle is in first place. But that doesn't mean the lineup is ready for a postseason run.
Two months of the season are in the books, so we should begin considering areas of the roster that the Mariners may choose to address by the July 31 MLB trade deadline. For now, let’s focus on hitters.
It’s important to acknowledge upfront that the Mariners likely see things differently than we do. After all, management maintains visibility on factors such as financial considerations, scouting evaluations, analytic data, health reports, and market trends. This type of information isn’t publicly available. Still, I believe three positions would benefit greatly from outside help.
First base
Left-handed hitting Rowdy Tellez is the primary first baseman with veteran Donovan Solano making starts against southpaw pitching. The offense provided by the position has been suboptimal.
The combined productivity of Mariners first baseman is significantly worse than the league-average, which is reflected by a 79 wRC+ that ranks 24th in baseball.
Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) quantifies how a hitter’s total offensive value compares with the league average after adjusting for park effects. League-average is always 100. Therefore, a wRC+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 wRC+ would be 20-percent below average.
Shifting our focus to individual contributions reveals a large disparity between Tellez and Solano.
wRC+ of Seattle’s First Base Platoon
Rowdy Tellez (96)
Donovan Solano (20)
Clearly, Solano’s contributions are a drag on the position’s overall numbers. His wRC+ signals he’s 80-percent less productive than the average hitter. The 37-year-old’s conventional stats (.173 AVG/.213 OBP/.200 SLG) support this assessment.
Tellez’s wRC+ is more palatable. However, his .261 OBP ranks 222nd of 233 players with at least 140 plate appearances. Then again, the 30-year-old has hit eight home runs and boasts a .420 SLG.
Defensively, the situation doesn’t look great either. The Mariners’ minus-four OAA ranks 27th in MLB. The only clubs worse than Seattle are San Diego (-5) and San Francisco (-6). But this time, Tellez is the weaker link.
Outs Above Average (OAA) is a range-based metric that quantifies how many outs a defender saved compared to the average player. League-average is always ZERO. Source: Baseball Savant
Tellez’s minus-five OAA ranks 35th of 36 qualified first baseman. Only Luis Arráez (minus-7) is worse. Conversely, Solano’s one OAA indicates he’s been slightly above average in limited action.
From a total player perspective, the FanGraphs version of wins above replacement (fWAR) tells us that neither Tellez (minus-0.2 fWAR) nor Solano (minus-0.4) are providing overall positive value.
Some fans may propose Tyler Locklear, currently with Class-AAA Tacoma, as a possible option. The right-handed hitter has a .284 AVG/.370 OBP/.408 SLG with 13 doubles and four home runs.
Perhaps. But Locklear’s 22.6-percent strikeout rate is commensurate with this year’s MLB average, which suggests he’ll be prone to striking out more often against big-league pitching. In a small sample audition with Seattle last season, the 2nd rounder had a 40.8-percent strikeout rate and a 58 wRC+ in 49 plate appearances.
Right field
Current starter Leody Taveras was selected off waivers about a month ago. Tavares was made available by the Rangers after he began the season with a 66 wRC+ on the heels of an 82 wRC+ a year ago.
Perhaps a change of scenery and exposure to Seattle’s hitting gurus, Edgar Martínez and Kevin Seitzer, can help Tavares rediscover the mojo that led to a .266 AVG/.312 OBP/.421 SLG with Texas in 2023. Still, that season has the appearance of an outlier. In over 1,900 plate appearances as a Ranger, the switch-hitter had a .238 AVG/.288 OBP/.367 SLG with an 84 wRC+.
Tavares is starting because injuries to Víctor Robles and Luke Raley spoiled the great outfield depth the Mariners possessed entering the season. There’s a chance Robles returns late in the year. But the 28-year-old’s career numbers don’t inspire confidence.
I suspect many Mariners fans view Robles as the player who was a force of nature after being acquired via the waiver wire early last June. The Dominican Republic native’s .328 AVG/.393 OBP/.467 SLG and 154 wRC+ led his new club in each of these categories. But his stat line prior to arriving in the Emerald City was considerably worse.
In over 1,800 plate appearances over eight seasons with Washington, Robles posted a .236 AVG/.311 OBP/.356 SLG with an 81 wRC+. For me, it would be unwise to expect a player with an extended history of subpar production to be a difference-maker during a postseason chase.
That said, the return of a healthy and productive Raley potentially solves the right field conundrum. This assumes the Mariners opt to primarily use him as an outfielder rather than at first base.
Catcher
Cal Raleigh is on a trajectory to receive MVP consideration this year. But when Raleigh isn’t behind the dish, there’s an immense decline in offensive output.
Backup Mitch Garver has cut strikeouts by about three percent from last season and he has a career-high 13.8-percent walk rate. But his overall productivity is markedly below average (81 wRC+).
Currently, 299 hitters have at least 100 plate appearances. Garver’s .258 SLG ranks 291st within this group. Between 2022 and 2024, the 34-year-old had a .410 SLG. A far cry from what he’s produced since joining the Mariners last year.
This blogger doesn’t possess the talent to evaluate hitters. But two things about Garver stand out to me. First, he whiffs often against velocity. His 52.2-percent whiff rate on pitches thrown at 96 mph-or-greater is higher than any other batter seeing at least 50 such offerings.
Also, a significant portion of Garver’s strikeouts (43.3%) have been the result of a called strike three. Only six hitters with 30-plus strikeouts this season have been called out on strikes more frequently than the New Mexico native.
Realistically, Raleigh is going to catch the vast majority of games for Seattle. However, a productive reserve might make it easier to spare the Platinum Glove winner from the rigors of catching a bit more often. This could help Raleigh perform at a high level through the end of October.
Something else to consider. The team would be in a lurch if Raleigh were lost to injury, even if it were just a brief IL stint. Granted, it’s unreasonable to expect any backup to replicate the 28-year-old’s offense. Catcher is baseball’s least productive position. On the other hand, getting more than what Garver has produced as a Mariner would help depressurize an unplanned Raleigh absence.
It’s possible the organization turns to Harry Ford. The top-100 prospect currently has a .325 AVG/.437 OBP/.484 SLG with Tacoma. Still, it’s important to remember that the 22-year-old must master the catcher position in addition to being a productive contributor to a lineup. For this reason, I suspect the Mariners will cautiously manage Ford’s development.
Looking forward
The positions management addresses this summer depends on multiple factors. The first one coming to mind is the performance of all hitters. Perhaps some of the players we’ve discussed become more productive. Maybe someone else at another position craters between now and the end of July.
Player health can also influence decision-making. An injury to a key run producer would realign priorities in a hurry. And let’s not overlook the team’s record.
If the Mariners are still leading the AL West division, or are close to first place as the deadline nears, the front office will likely be an aggressive buyer as it was last season when Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner were acquired. Then again, a freefall in the standings could lead to an entirely different market strategy.
Assuming the Mariners continue to contend, you can count on us discussing potential trade candidates over the next eight weeks.
Sounds like fun!
My Oh My…