The great unknown facing the Mariners
The appetite to improve, rather than stand pat, can be the difference between postseason glory and a winter of regret.
With Opening Day upon us, postseason predictions are everywhere. Most are based on current information about clubs and players, although some may be rooted in gut feel or inspired by sentimentality. But there’s a critical factor few prognosticators ever consider. It’s the willingness of clubs to make impactful deals prior to the MLB trade deadline.
For an example of what I’m referring to, consider the Mariners’ approach leading up to the last two deadlines and the divergent conclusion to each season.
In July 2022, Seattle made what might be best characterized as a go-for-it move, trading several prospects to get starting pitcher Luis Castillo from the Reds. Castillo was sought-after by multiple contenders and arguably the highest-profile deadline pickup in Mariners franchise history.
Castillo lived up to his billing as a top-of-the-rotation arm. The three-time All-Star helped the Mariners snap a decades-old postseason drought and win a wildcard series. He even agreed to a five-year extension to remain in the Emerald City before the end of the 2022 campaign.
One year later, the Mariners gave off a different vibe. A far more reserved strategy was executed at the end of July. The team’s biggest deal was essentially a lateral move that wasn’t well received by the fan base.
Seattle sent its best reliever, Paul Sewald, to Arizona in exchange for veteran Josh Rojas, rookie Dominic Canzone, and minor-leaguer Ryan Bliss. Relievers Trent Thornton and Eduard Bazardo were also added via minor deals.
Unfortunately, these moves didn’t result in a postseason appearance. Instead, the Mariners missed out on securing a wildcard berth by one win and winning the AL West division title by two victories. But it gets worse. Houston and Texas played for the AL championship with the Rangers going on to win their first-ever World Series title.
So, why were the Mariners less aggressive in 2023 than the season prior?
Hard to know from afar. Perhaps there were budgetary considerations. Maybe management looked at the standings and determined the roster’s outlook didn’t warrant assuming further risk. To see what I mean, consider Seattle’s place in the AL standings at the end of July in 2022 and 2023.
If the 2022 campaign had ended on the day the Castillo deal was completed, the Mariners would’ve finished 11 games behind the Astros in the AL West. That said, the club would’ve held the second wild card spot, just one and one-half game behind the Blue Jays.
Things didn’t look as promising for Seattle a year later. Not awful, but the situation appeared far more challenging than it did in 2022.
The Mariners were closer to the top of the AL West than the season prior. But three clubs stood between them and the division lead - the Rangers, Astros, and Angels. Seattle was also four and one-half games out of the final wild card berth with multiple clubs vying for the same spot.
Not insurmountable leads in the division and wild card races. But Seattle’s tenuous place in the standings may have motivated management to be a picky shopper rather than an aggressive buyer.
Ironically, after making the Sewald deal, the Mariners experienced a historically good August. The team had a 21-6 record and was tied with Houston for the AL West lead on Labor Day. That said, we’re all in the future now and know what happened next. Just 12 wins over the final 29 contests of the regular season.
Adding salt to the wound for Mariners fans, each club ahead of Seattle in the division standings on August 1 added recognizable names. None dealt a key contributor, like Sewald.
Houston reunited with Justin Verlander and Kendall Graveman to shore up its pitching staff. Texas also focused on pitching by adding starters Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery, plus a trio of relievers. The Angels went in a different direction - buying in bulk. Their Costco strategy didn’t deliver wins. But it did lead to a late-August fire sale in Anaheim.
Looking forward, what might the Mariners do this coming July?
Again, hard to know. Obviously, the club’s position in the standings will factor into its deadline decision-making. So will money.
As Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reported in December, the Mariners now own 100-percent of ROOT Sports. This long-expected development seemingly snuck up on ownership this winter to cast a long shadow over the organization’s financial outlook. Therefore, it’s plausible the salaries of potential trade targets could unduly influence the front office’s ability to add an impact bat and/or arm that otherwise makes baseball sense.
Still, this nerd believes Seattle’s ownership should empower its baseball people with the necessary wherewithal to do baseball things in July. The Mariners’ white-hot August should serve as a reminder that the current postseason format permits .500-ish teams to remain in contention for much longer than in the past.
So should an 84-win Arizona Diamondbacks team reaching the World Series with Paul Sewald spearheading its bullpen.
My Oh My…