Second-half Julio or something else?
The "second-half Julio" moniker makes less sense to me in 2025 than it did during Julio Rodríguez's three previous campaigns.
Since the All-Star break, Julio Rodríguez has been the Mariners’ best hitter.
Not exactly a bold statement considering Rodríguez leads the team in doubles, home runs, AVG, SLG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ since the Mid-Summer Classic. This uptick in productivity has prompted the return of a phrase that makes me cringe.
“Second-half Julio.”
Don’t get me wrong. I’m a huge Julio proponent who believes the 24-year-old receives more criticism than he deserves. But I’ve grown weary of the generalization that Rodríguez’s improved production numbers over the last month is a repeat of previous seasons when his bat became white-hot after the All-Star break.
Yes, I realize Rodríguez’s stat line since mid-July is significantly better than what he delivered beforehand. Particularly in the power department, which is clearly evident in the home run and SLG categories.
I’m also aware that a quick comparison of the first- and second-half wRC+ in each of Rodríguez’s four big-league seasons hints at “second-half Julio” potentially being a thing again in 2025.
Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) quantifies how a hitter’s total offensive value compares with the league average, which is always 100, after adjusting for park effects. For example, a wRC+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 wRC+ would be 20-percent below average.
Considering the conventional and sabermetric evidence provided up to this point, some of you are probably wondering why I’m so resistant to the use of “second-half Julio” this year. My aversion is rooted in a statistical factor seemingly lost in the noise.
It turns out that Rodríguez was a very good hitter in the first half of the 2025 campaign. More specifically, he was a top-15 run producer when he wasn’t at T-Mobile Park.
Road wRC+ Leaderboard (First Half of 2025)
Aaron Judge (221)
Cal Raleigh (178)
Shohei Ohtani (169)
Pete Alonso (156)
Juan Soto (153)
Kyle Schwarber (151)
Bobby Witt Jr. (150)
Seiya Suzuki (150)
Taylor Ward (149)
Kyle Tucker (149)
TJ Friedl (147)
James Wood (140)
Manny Machado (140)
José Ramírez (139)
Julio Rodríguez (134)
It wasn’t just the modern metric wRC+ that set Rodríguez apart during the first three months of the 2025 campaign. His 10 home runs, .292 AVG, and .502 SLG were all 15th best. Moreover, he boasted a 22nd-ranked .348 OBP. Maybe this high level of road productivity played a role in Julio’s peers selecting him to be an All-Star this year.
Taking the road production theme a step further, I separated Rodríguez’s home and away wRC+ into monthly segments to see what happened. As you can see below, extreme splits appeared. With the exception of a sluggish March and April, the native of the Dominican Republic has been exceptional on the road all season.
Conversely, Rodríguez was slightly above average at T-Mobile Park early in the year before he cratered in June and July. That said, it’s important to note his combined home and away SLG, OPS, and wRC+ in August are currently top-10 in baseball.
Perhaps what Rodríguez has accomplished this month signals he’ll be a top run producer for the rest of the season, regardless of location. That’s what my emotional side is hoping for - Julio propelling the Mariners to the postseason for the second time in his young career. I really want to see this guy thrive.
Still, the analytical part of this nerd’s brain is in charge. Therefore, a wait-and-see approach will remain in place until a larger second-half sample size is available to consider. With this in mind, I currently view “road warrior Rodríguez” as a more fitting characterization of his 2025 campaign than “second-half Julio.”
That said, Rodríguez staying hot during the upcoming homestand would be an encouraging development and a good first step towards changing my mind. Naturally, that’s exactly what I’m hoping to see happen beginning this weekend.
Did I mention I really want to see this guy thrive?
My Oh My…