Rounding Out the Numbers: Motor City bound
Rounding Out the Numbers: Motor City bound
Off day reflections from the Consigliere.
Before the Mariners begin a nine-game road trip in Detroit tomorrow, I want to pass on a few random items bouncing around my pea-sized brain. Doing so should help open storage space for more nerd-related stuff, which I’ll share with you at a later date.
Julio and the Grounders
Sounds like a rock band, doesn’t it? Actually, I’m referring to the near non-existent ground ball success of Julio Rodríguez has experienced this season.
Last year, only three hitters had a higher AVG on ground balls than Rodríguez posted (.341). They were Leody Taveras (.353), Andrés Giménez (.352), and Xander Bogaerts (.346). This season, Seattle’s center fielder has a .167 AVG on grounders, which ranks in the bottom-15% of MLB.
Taking it a step further, Rodríguez has a suboptimal .125 AVG on ground balls with an exit velocity of 95-plus mph. Conversely, the league has a .386 AVG. Last season, the Dominican Republic native was much more productive on “hard-hit” grounders.
Perhaps what Rodríguez is experiencing this season is nothing more than the randomness of baseball. It’s certainly plausible considering the large gap between his actual AVG and expected batting average (xBA), a metric that removes the influence of good and bad defense.
More ground ball talk
Check out what opponents are hitting against Matt Brash and Trevor Gott on grounders. Both pitchers are experiencing significantly less success than their bullpen-mates and the league in general.
Ground Ball AVG of Seattle Relievers
Matt Brash - .444
Trevor Gott - .348
Gabe Speier - .250
Justin Topa - .231
Paul Sewald - .231
Diego Castillo - .214
Chris Flexen - .125
Penn Murfee - .077
MLB AVG on Ground Balls = .237
It’s important to recognize reliever numbers are small samples at this point of the season. Therefore, their stats can experience major swings in a short period. That said, I’ll be intently watching the ground ball numbers of Brash and Gott as the season progresses.
Oppo Taco Time
Per Statcast, the Mariners have hit 10 opposite field home runs - third most in MLB. The teams ahead of Seattle are the Rays (13) and the Yankees (11).
Mariners With Opposite Field Home Runs
Jarred Kelenic - 2
Ty France - 2
Julio Rodríguez - 2
Eugenio Suárez - 2
Teoscar Hernández - 1
Taylor Trammell - 1
Goin’ deep
The rotation has done an exceptional job of giving manager Scott Servais length more often than not. In fact, his pitchers have made starts of six-or-more innings in 58% of the team’s 36 games this season.
Most Six-Plus Inning Starts
MIN – 22
SEA – 21
CHC – 19
SDP – 19
PIT – 19
TOR – 19
HOU – 18
LAD – 18
CLE – 18
To be clear, all 21 outings didn’t qualify as a quality start (six-plus innings, three-or-fewer earned runs). However, a starter covering innings - even when he’s struggling - helps preserve the bullpen.
Mariners With Six-Plus Inning Starts
George Kirby - 6
Logan Gilbert - 5
Luis Castillo - 4
Bryce Miller - 2
Marco Gonzales - 2
Easton McGee - 1
Chris Flexen - 1
As an aside, only Framber Valdez (5) and Eduardo Rodriguez (4) have more starts of seven-plus innings than George Kirby (3) does. Is it possible Kirby could attain “staff ace” status sooner than some of us thought possible?
Appreciating Penn Murfee
It’s easy to become enamored with the swing and miss stuff of back-end relievers Andrés Muñoz, Paul Sewald, and Matt Brash. After all, each helped propel the Mariners to the postseason in 2022. Still, we shouldn’t overlook contributions made by Penn Murfee since his big-league debut last year.
Murfee paced Seattle’s bullpen in 2022 with 67.1 innings pitched, plus he was top-30 among qualified relievers in multiple statistical categories. The 29-year-old was particularly adept at avoiding loud contact.
Before landing on the IL last week, Murfee was once again doing good things. In fact, the Tennessee native’s sweeper pitch was holding opponents to a paltry .040 AVG - lowest among any pitcher facing at least 20 hitters.
Murfee being out of commission doesn’t receive the same attention as Muñoz’s current IL stint does. However, getting the Santa Clara product back is also vital to sustaining the bullpen’s success.
Bullpen depth matters
Last week, Corey Brock of The Athletic tweeted the status of Seattle’s Opening Day relievers. On the surface, the situation could be perceived as bleak. Yet, that may not be the case.
Seeing so much reliever turnover, especially this early in the season, can be unsettling. Still, we should remember Seattle experienced substantially similar churn in 2022 before having one of the best bullpens in MLB by season’s end.
2022 Opening Day Bullpen
Andrés Muñoz
Paul Sewald (IL) - April 20
Justus Sheffield (Optioned) - May 2
Matthew Festa (IL) – May 5
Yohan Ramirez (DFA) - May 13
Erik Swanson (IL) - May 14
Anthony Misiewicz (Optioned) - June 10
Drew Steckenrider (DFA) - June 11
Sergio Romo (DFA) - June 20
Diego Castillo (IL) - July 28
Relievers falling out, while unfortunate, did lead to Matt Brash and Penn Murfee joining the 2022 bullpen. This year, we’re witnessing more of the same with Justin Topa, Gabe Speier, Tayler Saucedo, and Juan Then filling voids created by injury and ineffectiveness.
Bend, don’t break?
Still, I do have a concern regarding Seattle’s bullpen - the current usage rate of its top relievers. The Mariners have a league-leading six pitchers with 15-plus relief appearances.
Relievers with 15+ Games
Matt Brash - 20
Trevor Gott - 19
Paul Sewald - 19
Gabe Speier - 18
Justin Topa - 16 (Also had 3 appearances at AAA)
Penn Murfee - 15 (IL)
Consider this: Brash, Gott, and Sewald have pitched in over 50% of Seattle’s games. This isn’t a sustainable model for a 162-game season.
An unfortunate second-order effect
To me, the Mariners’ heavy early-season reliance on key relievers is partially attributable to a lineup struggling to consistently plate runs. For proof, look no further than the team’s high number of one-run games.
To date, Seattle has played 15 one-run games - only Cleveland (17) and Cincinnati (16) have competed in more. But there’s a noticeable difference between Seattle and many clubs during these tightly-contested games - run production.
The Mariners are scoring an average of 2.86 runs in one-run games (league-average is 3.95). Even with the rotation delivering length, the bullpen’s best arms are being repeatedly called upon to give Servais’ crew a chance to win lose games.
In reality, the shortest path to sustaining the bullpen’s superiority may be fielding a more potent lineup.
Piece of cake, right?
My Oh My…