Rounding Out the Numbers: Memorial Day
Watching Mariners baseball hasn't been fun lately.
It’s been a minute since I published a Rounding Out the Numbers edition. The Mariners having a losing record on Memorial Day is a good reason to get back in the saddle.
.667
The Mariners’ winning percentage in the 27 games they’ve allowed three-or-fewer runs. This may sound encouraging, but it’s not. Last season, Seattle boasted an .813 winning percentage when it kept the opposition under four runs in 80 contests.
Obviously, run support for the pitching staff is the underlying issue. The lineup has been held to three-or-fewer runs in half of this year’s 54-game schedule. Suboptimal for a club with World Series aspirations.
Six
The number of Mariners with 100 plate appearances and an average-or-better OPS+. They are Luke Raley (151), Brendan Donovan (145), Randy Arozarena (145), Julio Rodríguez (121), Dominic Canzone (116), and J.P. Crawford (100).
Even though Seattle is tied for third most hitters matching our criteria, the club hasn’t been able to generate an adequate amount of offense. I see three factors affecting this issue.
First, the absence of AL MVP runner-up Cal Raleigh (62 OPS+) and Josh Naylor (94 OPS+) from our list speaks volumes about the team’s early-season woes.
Compounding matters, the currently injured Brendan Donovan has missed 19 games. In his absence, Leo Rivas (30 OPS+) covered third base more often than preferred before being reassigned to Class-AAA Tacoma last week.
Finally, the productive left-handed hitting pair of Raley and Canzone have started 38 and 35 games respectively as part of platoons. Yet, their right-handed counterparts have underwhelmed. This brings us to our next nugget.
.594
Seattle’s MLB-worst OPS against left-handed pitching, which is significantly worse than what it managed to produce a season ago.
SEA vs LHP (First 54 games)
2025: 613 PA, .245 AVG, .321 OBP, .403 SLG
2026: 595 PA, .190 AVG, .278 OBP, .315 SLG
Just two Mariners have an above-average OPS against lefty hurlers. Not only that, offseason acquisition Rob Refsnyder, known for mashing southpaws, has fallen on hard times.
SEA OPS vs LHP
Julio Rodríguez (1.079)
Randy Arozarena (.830)
MLB OPS vs LHP (.698)
Mitch Garver (.686)
Connor Joe (.642)
Cole Young (.599)*
J.P. Crawford (.567)*
Victor Robles (.538)
Josh Naylor (.494)*
Colt Emerson (.425)*
Dominic Canzone (.400)*
Cal Raleigh (.396)**
Brendan Donovan (.382)*
Rob Refsnyder (.359)
Leo Rivas (.291)**
* Left-handed hitter
** Switch-hitter
So, what’s changed since last year? Raleigh had the fifth highest OPS versus lefties in 2025. This season has been much worse for the switch-hitter.
Raleigh vs LHP Thru SEA’s First 54 Games
2025: 73 PA, 8 HR, .290 AVG, .329 OBP, .681 SLG
2026: 51 PA, 1 HR, .133 AVG, .196 OBP, .200 SLG
Also, Jorge Polanco (.888 OPS versus lefties) is now a Met. His replacements at second base and designated hitter haven’t delivered results. Furthermore, J.P. Crawford (.678), Mitch Garver (.718), and Naylor (.759) were noticeably better in 2025.
Something else to consider. When Canzone received opportunities against left-handers in 2025, he produced a .276 AVG and .368 OBP. Granted, it was a small sample of 68 plate appearances. This season, he’s had 10 opportunities. Considering the team’s current struggles, would starting Canzone against southpaws be worth a try?
.375
The Mariners’ 23rd ranked slugging percentage. Through 54 contests last year, they were tied for 12th best. The lineup has hit the 10th most home runs. However, just five clubs have fewer doubles than Seattle with Arozarena and Rodríguez producing 33-percent of the team’s two-baggers.
36
Runs scored by Arozarena, which ties him for 12th most in MLB. What I find fun about this tidbit is that much of Arozarena’s success was produced as the number-five hitter. No one has scored more from the fifth spot than the two-time All-Star.
Obviously, Arozarena couldn’t have scored so often without his teammates driving him in. That said, the Cuban is helping his team’s cause by frequently getting into scoring position. He leads Seattle in doubles and is top-five in steals of second base.
.511
The May OPS of Cole Young entering Memorial Day. The left-handed hitting Young got off to a fantastic start in March and April. But the bat has gone cold this month.
Young’s Monthly Numbers
Mar/Apr: 129 PA, .286 AVG, .357 OBP, .420 SLG
May: 85 PA, .173 AVG, .271 OBP, .240 SLG
Young was also very productive against lefty pitchers early this season (.940 OPS). But that success has evaporated in May (.198 OPS).
27.2%
This one may come as a surprise after his four-hit performance yesterday. The strikeout rate of Colt Emerson in 38 games and 169 plate appearances with Tacoma led this nerd to question the timing of his promotion. I still have reservations.
Am I suggesting disaster awaits Emerson because of a minor-league stat? Of course not. But it’s reasonable to expect the 20-year-old will encounter difficulties. For this reason, he deserves our patience. I’m rooting for the kid!
29th
The Mariners’ Fielding Run Value ranking, although it’s important to note they’re essentially tied with the Angels for last place. This aligns with the eyeball test and the resultant level of scrutiny the defense has received on a variety of media platforms.
Fielding Run Value (FRV) Captures the overall measurable defensive performance of a player or team. It looks at range and throwing for fielders. For catchers: blocking, framing, and throwing are considered. ZERO is always average.
M’s Positional FRV Rankings
C (11th)
1B (15th)
2B (14th)
SS (26th)
3B (22nd)
LF (18th)
CF (30th)
RF (25th)
Center field being ranked 30th is a shocking development considering only five center fielders had a higher FRV than Rodríguez in 2025. This season, he ranks last in his peer group.
Crawford recently offered to move to third base so the slick fielding Emerson could take over at shortstop. Perhaps the veteran’s transition to the hot corner leads to better defense than what the team has received from the position thus far.
.311
The rotation’s xwOBA, which ties it for 8th best in MLB. This is my favorite metric for looking at pitchers since it removes defense from the equation. Relevant considering the team’s FRV ranking.
Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) uses exit velocity and launch angle to determine what should’ve happened to batted balls. A key advantage to xwOBA is defense doesn’t influence it. This gives us a truer sense of how a hitter or pitcher is performing.
The lone starter with a suboptimal xwOBA is Luis Castillo, who ranks 122nd of 138 pitchers who’ve faced 150 batters. If we do a somewhat flawed “what if” drill and replace Castillo with the recently returned Bryce Miller, the rotation elevates to a third-best .299 xwOBA.
Starter xwOBA
Bryce Miller (.225)
Bryan Woo (.282)
George Kirby (.292)
Logan Gilbert (.315)
Emerson Hancock (.320)
MLB Average for SP’s (.323)
Luis Castillo (.366)
The team is currently piggybacking Castillo and Miller, a strategy that’s been well received by fans and local sports talk radio. How long this arrangement lasts is unclear.
Editor’s note: Piggybacking has not been well received.
.244
The xwOBA of Jose A. Ferrer, which is 17th best among 244 relievers. Unfortunately, the 26-year-old is one of just three Seattle relief pitchers who are better than the MLB average. All told, the bullpen is tied for 20th.
SEA Reliever xwOBA
Jose A. Ferrer (.244)
Matt Brash (.298)
Cooper Criswell (.305)
MLB Average for RP’s (.317)
Eduard Bazardo (.318)
Andrés Muñoz (.331)
Gabe Speier (.337) *
Alex Hoppe (.339)
Nick Davila (.347)
Casey Legumina (.351) +
Cole Wilcox (.409) **
Domingo Gonzalez (.422) **
* Injured
** AAA
+ DFA
On a positive note, closer Andrés Muñoz has been improving after a string of bumpy appearances. Same with Eduard Bazardo. There’s also promising news on the health front. Matt Brash returned from the injured list on Friday and Gabe Speier may be back with the team this week.
32,697
The Mariners’ average home attendance. That’s an increase of 5,813 fans-per-game over last year and a total bump of 168,588. Only Seattle’s ALCS opponent, Toronto (339,396), has experienced a larger jump.
It’s amazing how winning leads to greater fan enthusiasm and support.
My Oh My…