Nolan Arenado and the Mariners, in this economy?
Nolan Arenado may be destined for Cooperstown. But what would a prospective buyer be getting from Arenado in 2025 and beyond?
An idle winter has left Mariners fans antsy for any kind of acquisition-related news about their favorite baseball team - even the seemingly absurd. For example, a Twitter post by Jon Morosi of MLB Network undoubtedly generated some level of churn in the Seattle, Detroit, and St. Louis markets this morning.
Morosi suggested the Mariners and Tigers could be options for Nolan Arenado, if the Cardinals couldn’t agree to terms on a deal to send the eight-time All-Star to Boston.
In the Emerald City, a comment like this from a well-regarded national reporter undoubtedly rekindles the hot stove for a brief time. Perhaps it prompts a few Mariners-related radio and podcast conversations over the next 24 hours. Morosi’s words also give bloggers, including me, something new to write about. Still, does acquiring Arenado make sense for Seattle?
Before addressing this question, we should consider a topic I tend to avoid.
Show me the money
I usually resist discussing salaries since it’s impossible to determine the validity of publicly available information. Besides, the subject bores me. I’d prefer to be talking about the on-field stuff. But I’m making an exception since what the Cardinals still reportedly owe the 12-year veteran will influence Arenado-related conversations Mariners fans might have with one another.
Arenado’s contract has many twists and turns. There are deferred payments running from now until 2041. Colorado is still chipping-in $5 million annually for the next two seasons. Plus, the Cardinals tacked-on an additional season (2027) to the original pact.
That said, after reviewing Arenado’s pages at Spotrac and Baseball Prospectus, I think (hope) the following numbers accurately reflect what he’s owed by St. Louis over the final three years of his contract.
Arenado’s Projected Salary from Cardinals (2025-27)*
2025: $21 million
2026: $16 million
2027: $15 million
* After subtracting Colorado’s contributions and deferments
Sources: Spotrac and Baseball Prospectus
Even though St. Louis still owes Arenado a significant amount of money, it’s plausible a potential buyer could broker an economically-palatable deal to acquire the Californian - even the Mariners.
Okay, let’s get back to what we normally do.
Selling points: Arenado puts the ball in play. Only 11 of 129 qualified hitters had a lower strikeout rate than he did last season. The best Mariners were Víctor Robles (16.8-percent) and Justin Turner (18.4-percent).
Using the FanGraphs version of WAR, Arenado’s 3.4 fWAR was sixth-best among MLB third basemen in 2024. For context, Seattle’s Josh Rojas provided 1.4 fWAR of value.
Arenado remains one of baseball’s best fielders at the hot corner. His nine outs above average (OAA) ranked third among 43 qualified third basemen. Rojas delivered six OAA.
Outs Above Average (OAA) is a range-based metric that shows how many outs a player has saved. League-average is always ZERO. Source: Baseball Savant
Over the last decade, Arenado played in 95-percent of his teams’ games with just two notable injury-related absences. In 2020, he missed a week with a shoulder bruise. Back spasms cost the 33-year-old the final 10 days of the 2023 campaign.
Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported in December that Arenado was amenable to a position change to facilitate a trade even though he’s never played any position other than third base. Specifically, the 10-time Gold Glove winner is willing to move across the diamond to first base.
Potential concerns: There was a noticeable decline in Arenado’s power last year. Excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, the five-time Silver Slugger’s 16 home runs were the fewest he’s hit since his rookie season in 2013. Similarly, Arenado’s 23 doubles were a career-low.
Taking it a step further, advanced metrics also paint a bleak picture. Arenado’s 31.3-percent hard-hit and 3.2-percent barrel rates both ranked in the bottom ten-percent of our pool of 129 qualified hitters. Furthermore, both stats were the worst he’s produced since the Statcast era began in 2015.
It’s also worth noting that, in 2024, Arenado was significantly less productive on the road than at St. Louis’ Busch Stadium.
Whether these extreme splits mean anything moving forward is unclear. But Statcast does rate the Cardinals’ home field as much more welcoming to hitters than Seattle’s T-Mobile Park.
Arenado has never been fleet-footed. But perhaps some of you aren’t aware of what the data says about the former second-round pick’s quickness. Of 290 players with 100-plus competitive runs last year, only 16 had a lower average sprint speed than Arenado’s 25.3 feet-per-second.
Thoughts: In theory, the Mariners could make an offer to land Arenado that would work financially in the near term. Including the contract of Mitch Haniger or Mitch Garver in any deal would potentially save both Seattle and St. Louis money this year. But I’m making broad assumptions without knowing several critical details.
First, the Mariners would have to be interested in landing Arenado. I am skeptical about this. Plus, both sides would need to agree on whether St. Louis would help pay down Arenado’s salary. The Cardinals would also have to accept the compensation offered to them. Finally, let’s not forget Arenado has full no-trade rights. Perhaps he wouldn’t view the Pacific Northwest and T-Mobile Park as appealing destinations at this point of his career and life.
Still, let’s momentarily suspend reality and assume all of these hurdles could be overcome and return to our original question. Does acquiring Arenado make sense for Seattle?
Throughout his career, Arenado has done an outstanding job of minimizing strikeouts and putting the ball in play. Important considerations for a team, like the Mariners, that’s been deficient in both areas. Not only that, the El Toro High School product continues to be a premium third base defender and could potentially be a great glove at first base, too. Still, his recent production numbers provide reason to pause.
The diminished potency of Arenado’s bat is a foreboding sign for a player entering his age-34 season. Especially, when there are two more years of club control remaining after the 2025 campaign. If this decline in power were to worsen, it’s plausible the most valuable contribution he’d make to a new club would be his defense.
Would Arenado provide more offense to the Mariners than the team received from its third basemen in 2024? Assuming good health, yes. Then again, that’s not a particularly high bar to get over.
My Oh My…