No, the sky isn't falling in Seattle
The Mariners' season has gotten off to a slow start. But there's no reason for panic. Not yet, at least.
Week-three of the 2023 MLB season is complete and anxiety levels are already on the rise in Seattle. The Mariners, a team expected to be a postseason contender, are off to a lethargic 8-11 start.
It’s understandable if fans are feeling frustrated by the Mariners’ sluggish performance. After all, the team’s record doesn’t align with the championship aspirations expressed by management in the offseason.
Consequently, there’s a bevy of grievances being aired by fans via Twitter. Most notably: payroll size, the Opening Day roster, the performance of players acquired in the offseason, the performance of players let go this winter, bullpen management, and lineup construction. There are probably others, but you get the gist.
It’s a target-rich environment for anyone wanting to gripe about the Mariners.
Despite the social media turmoil the slow start has created, I’m not shying away from my preseason prediction - the Mariners will win the AL West this season. Granted, the early results aren’t encouraging. But I believe the team will eventually get on track for three reasons.
The offense will improve
Clearly, run production has been suboptimal. The Mariners are averaging 4.47 runs scored/game, which is slightly below the league average (4.61) and only 19th-best in MLB. From a conventional standpoint, the team’s AVG, OBP, and SLG fall in the bottom-20%.
Still, advanced metrics based on quality and quantity of contact suggest the Mariners should be producing better results than they’ve experienced thus far. Specifically, expected batting average (xBA), expected slugging percentage (xSLG), and expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA).
I get it. Some fans don’t subscribe to nerd stats, which is fine. But the following table convinces me the Mariners’ offense will see better days.
While the Mariners are in the lower end of the league in actual results, expected metrics paint the picture of a top-10 offense. Please note the differences (highlighted in red above) are among the most extreme in baseball.
What might be causing the large rift between actual results and expected metrics for the Mariners? Since the season is so young and essentially a small sample, bad luck and good defense are likely leading to less-than-desired outcomes. This will normalize through time, as it does every season.
To see what I mean, look at the split between Seattle’s numbers in 2022. The actual stats aren’t identical to the expected ones, but they are very close. I expect the same to be true by October. If I’m correct, the Mariners will experience more acceptable levels of success in the near future.
To be clear, not all the issues the offense has encountered can be traced back to large gaps between actual and expected numbers. There are several notable hitters underperforming in a big way.
The following illustrates the wOBA and xwOBA of Seattle’s main positions players. Mariners fans won’t be surprised to see who’s bringing up the rear.
Four players receiving significant playing time - Kolten Wong, AJ Pollock, Cooper Hummel, and Tommy La Stella - have a combined .103 AVG/.195 OBP/.171 SLG slash-line with a .178 wOBA and .241 xwOBA in 133 plate appearances. Please note this foursome has accounted for 18% of the team’s total plate appearances.
It’s certainly plausible age-related regression is to blame for the poor starts of Wong, Pollock, and La Stella. All are at least 32-years-old and Father Time arrives at different points for all of us. Plus, Hummel is an unproven 28-year-old with just 244 big-league plate appearances.
Still, I struggle with the notion Wong and Pollock have permanently cratered. Is it conceivable they deliver less production than last season? Absolutely. After all, they’re thirty-somethings. But not to the levels we’ve witnessed from the pair thus far.
Something else to consider regarding Wong. He posted a .183 AVG/.219 OBP/.267 SLG through his first 18 games with Milwaukee last year. He finished at .251/.339/.430. Considering he’s an 11-year veteran with an established record of success, the Hawaiian deserves the benefit of the doubt.
On the other hand, La Stella struggling isn’t as surprising - at least to me. The 34-year-old has been hampered by injuries in recent seasons and during Spring Training this year. Furthermore, he was a below-average hitter (.677 OPS) with the Giants in 2021-22.
For the most part, the players at the top shouldn’t surprise fans except for one - Teoscar Hernández. But it’s important to note the large gap between Hernández’s below-average wOBA and excellent xwOBA suggests to me his stat line will improve as the season progresses.
In fact, an uptick in Hernández’s production may already be underway. After recording one hit in 17 at bats (.059 AVG) during his first five games, he has three home runs with a .293 AVG/.312 OBP/.466 SLG and 121 wRC+ (100 is average) in his next 61 plate appearances.
The pitching has been good
The pitching staff has allowed 4.42 runs/game, which is basically league-average (4.61). But the team’s 3.64 ERA is tenth best in the majors, while opponent AVG, SLG, wOBA, and xwOBA are top-six or better.
I won’t dwell on the pitching staff because it’s doing well based on the metrics I value. Yes, three individuals have scuffled more than the rest. But so many others are delivering outstanding results during the majority of their appearances.
Having said that, Chris Flexen and Diego Castillo having an xwOBA significantly worse than the MLB-average (.325) is troublesome. The difficulties each has encountered have been amplified by the losses of Robbie Ray and Andrés Muñoz to the IL.
Flexen has been on shaky ground since replacing Ray in the rotation during the second game of the season. Meanwhile, the absence of Muñoz resulted in more high-leverage opportunities for Castillo, who struggled in those situations. So much so, his recent outings have been mop-up duty.
Despite the difficulties Flexen and Castillo have encountered and the absences of Ray and Muñoz, the Mariners’ pitching staff is doing its job. Sure, there has been an occasional meltdown. But overall production has been superb. For this reason, I anticipate more of the same moving into May and beyond.
They’ve played 19 games
I’m not going to tell fans how to fan. But their hot takes and strong reactions won’t change the fact the Mariners have played just 19 games with only six being on the road. The size of this sample is mind-numbingly small, folks.
It really is.
The Mariners are currently 4.5 games behind the first-place Rangers. Sitting just ahead of Seattle are the World Series champion Astros and the Angels. I suspect the fan bases of those teams aren’t happy with their starts either.
Current AL West standings
TEX (12-6)
LAA (9-9)
HOU (9-9)
SEA (8-11)
OAK (3-16)
Then again, where teams sit today in the standings is irrelevant.
For proof, look back to the 2022 campaign through 19 games. The Angels were kings of the hill with the Mariners close behind. Tied for third place were the eventual cellar-dwelling A’s and the future champs.
AL West standings through 19 games (2022)
LAA (12-7)
SEA (11-8)
OAK (10-9)
HOU (10-9)
TEX (6-13)
A review of the league-wide standings through 19 contests reveals four of six first-place teams didn’t reach the postseason. Again, I fail to see the importance of win-loss records three weeks into the season.
Division leaders through 19 games (2022)
AL East - NYY (13-6)
AL Central - MIN (11-8)*
AL West - LAA (12-7)*
NL East - NYM (14-6)
NL Central - MIL (13-7)*
NL West - SFG (13-6)*
* Missed postseason
Sure, it’d be a lot more fun if the Mariners had gotten off to a hot start and went wire-to-wire in first place. That said, just one of the division leaders listed above finished in first place - the Yankees.
Finally
If the Mariners have the same .421 winning percentage they currently have on Memorial Day with the same players not producing, I’ll be concerned. Until then, I’ll continue to enjoy watching the Mariners play and hope the weather warms up soon.
My Oh My…