Mariners Primer: Position Players
Can Seattle's lineup adequately support the team's outstanding rotation? We shall see.
As has been the case in recent years, an inconsistent Mariners offense couldn’t provide adequate run support for arguably the best starting rotation in baseball. Hitters were good at drawing walks and average at hitting home runs. But they ranked in the bottom-third of MLB in many other ways.
Notable departures: Justin Turner, Luis Urías, Josh Rojas, Sam Haggerty
Looking ahead
The Mariners were relatively inactive in the offseason with Rowdy Tellez, Jorge Polanco, and Donovan Solano being the most prominent names acquired.
Tellez will see time at designated hitter and first base. That said, the 30-year-old’s numbers in 2024 were suboptimal (.243 AVG, .299 OBP, .392 SLG). Furthermore, Tellez’s 91 OPS+ suggests he was nine percent less productive than the average hitter.
On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) is a normalized version of OPS that adjusts for park and league conditions. OPS+ is scaled so 100 is always. Therefore, an OPS+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 OPS+ would be 20-percent below average.
It should be noted that Tellez was extremely unproductive in the first two months of the season before rebounding. As you can see below, the seven-year veteran was a completely different hitter after May 31.
Tellez’s Uneven 2024 Campaign
Mar-May: 142 PA/.177 AVG/.239 OBP/.223 SLG
Jun-Sep: 279 PA/.277 AVG/.330 OBP/.478 SLG
Defensively, Statcast rated Tellez’s range at first base as below average. In 2024, he accrued minus-5 OAA, which tied for 30th-lowest.
Outs Above Average (OAA) is a range-based metric that quantifies how many outs a defender saved compared to the average player. League-average is always ZERO. Source: Baseball Savant
Polanco isn’t exactly a new addition. Seattle’s 2024 Opening Day second baseman returns after testing free agency. The 11-year veteran experienced one of his worst seasons last year. Not only was Polanco a below-average run producer (93 OPS+), his minus-10 OAA ranked last of 37 qualified second basemen.
Despite knowing this, the Mariners re-signed Polanco and intend on having the 31-year-old play third base. The former All-Star last played the position in 2023 when he accumulated minus-2 OAA in 103 innings.
Something else to consider. Polanco underwent offseason knee surgery. Perhaps his injured knee contributed to his offensive woes. Hopefully, this is the case. However, the Dominican Republic native has been striking out more frequently since 2020.
In 309 plate appearances last year, the right-handed hitting Solano produced a .286 AVG, .343 OBP, and .417 SLG with a 112 OPS+.
Entering camp, it appeared that Solano would share time at first base with the left-handed hitting Luke Raley. But this spring, the 37-year-old spent about twice as much time at the hot corner than first base. Perhaps this was done to hedge against any transition issues Polanco might encounter.
Raley likely spends more time at first base than the outfield, his primary position in the past. Last year, the Ohioan set career highs in games, home runs, and OPS+. Most of his work at first base took place later in the season. In 44 contests at the position, he reached minus-3 OAA.
Second base will be handled by Ryan Bliss. The 25-year-old made his MLB debut with Seattle last year, although his playing time was limited to just 33 games between Memorial Day and early August. One area he’ll need to address is his swing and miss.
Bliss had a 31-percent strikeout rate - untenable for a disruptive force on the base paths. That said, the Auburn product made loud contact during his brief audition with above-average 46.5-percent hard-hit and 9.3-percent barrel rates. He also accrued 2 OAA in 177 innings.
Injuries limited shortstop J.P. Crawford to 105 games. His fewest in a normal season since becoming a Mariner in 2019. Crawford saw his OPS+ drop from an exceptional 133 two seasons ago to a suboptimal 86 last year. I’ve long maintained that the Californian returning to 2021-22 production levels would be a big boost to the lineup.
Sure, I’m rooting for Crawford to repeat his great 2023. But consider how differently we would view last season if the 30-year-old’s stats resembled what he did in 2021-22.
After being acquired last July, left fielder Randy Arozarena was a run producer despite not being a big bopper. In 54 games with Seattle, the 30-year-old slugged just .377 with five home runs. But he boasted a superb .356 OBP and 118 OPS+.
Last year, center fielder Julio Rodríguez delivered above-average production (116 OPS+). But in the first three months of the season, Rodríguez hit just seven home runs with a .297 OBP and .327 SLG. The two-time Silver Slugger then generated a .364 OBP and .528 SLG with 13 home runs for the rest of 2024. Still, this level of inconsistency proved problematic for a lineup straddled with so many struggling hitters.
Right fielder Víctor Robles joined the Mariners in early June and became a catalyst for the lineup. In Seattle’s final 100 games, Robles led the team in doubles, stolen bases, AVG, OBP, and OPS. Considering he had an 81 OPS+ in eight seasons with Washington, it’s reasonable to wonder about the 27-year-old’s bat entering 2025.
Cal Raleigh led the team with 153 games played and 34 home runs. Not only that, the 28-year-old was the Platinum Glove winner and received MVP consideration.
Key Position Players (and 2024 OPS+)
1B - Luke Raley (129)
2B - Ryan Bliss (102)
SS - J.P. Crawford (86)
3B - Jorge Polanco (93)
LF - Randy Arozarena (109)
CF - Julio Rodríguez (116)
RF - Víctor Robles (140)
C - Cal Raleigh (119)
DH - Rowdy Tellez (91)
Dylan Moore could be in the mix at second base, too. But considering Moore’s versatility, manager Dan Wilson may prefer moving the Gold Glove Utility-Man around the diamond rather than anchoring him to one position.
Another consideration, Moore’s splits over the past three seasons suggest the 32-year-old is better-suited for a utility role than full-time starter. Playing home games at T-Mobile Park hasn’t benefited Moore’s offense. Similarly, there’s a discernable difference between his productivity against right- and left-handed pitching.
Dylan Moore’s Home/Away Splits (2022-24)
Home: 415 PA / 33 SO% / .164 AVG / .283 OBP / .278 SLG
Away: 442 PA / 26.2 SO% / .253 AVG / .372 OBP / .489 SLG
Dylan Moore’s Platoon Splits (2022-24)
v RHP: 470 PA / 30.2 SO% / .190 AVG / .310 OBP / .352 SLG
v LHP: 387 PA / 28.7 SO% / .233 AVG / .351 OBP /.425 SLG
I suspect a large segment of Mariners fans was aware of the right-handed hitting Moore’s platoon splits. But his T-Mobile Park numbers are striking. It’s worth noting that the Central Florida alum was extensively discussed in a comprehensive article about Seattle’s home field authored by Mike Petriello of MLB.
Opening Day designated hitter Mitch Garver struggled so much (85 OPS+) he was moved to the backup catcher spot by summer. Garver started just 35 second-half games after having his name in the starting lineup 69 times prior to the All-Star game.
Notable Reserves (and 2024 OPS+)
INF - Donovan Solano (112)
UTL - Dylan Moore (104)
C/DH - Mitch Garver (85)
UTL - Miles Mastrobuoni (35)
INF - Leo Rivas (84)
OF - Dominic Canzone (91)
1B/3B - Austin Shenton (MiLB)
1B - Tyler Locklear (MiLB)
UTL - Samad Taylor (MiLB) +
2B - Cole Young (MiLB) +
C - Harry Ford (MiLB) +
3B - Ben Williamson (MiLB) +
+ Not on 40-man roster
Miles Mastrobuoni projects to be on the bench. Over the last three seasons, he’s appeared in 118 MLB games with the Rays and Cubs. The 29-year-old’s value will most likely come from his above-average speed and positional versatility.
In 2024, Mastrobuoni’s sprint speed was 28 feet-per-second, which would’ve tied him with Moore for fourth quickest on the Mariners. This spring, Mastrobuoni played second base, third base, left field, and center field.
If Crawford was sidelined for an extended period, Leo Rivas would likely get recalled from Class-AAA Tacoma. Rivas played 43 games with the Mariners last year, starting 21 contests at shortstop and two at second base.
Dominic Canzone begins the year with Tacoma. If an outfielder went down, he’d probably be the first choice to join the big-league club.
As for the organization’s talent-rich prospect pipeline, catcher Harry Ford (22), second baseman Cole Young (21) and third baseman Ben Williamson (24) are frequently mentioned as potential call-ups this year.
Outlook
Assuming good health, Rodríguez, Raleigh, Crawford, Raley, and Arozarena should form a solid core. But I’m less confident about the other main contributors.
Hopefully, Garver’s bat will rebound. But potential availability must be considered, too. In 2024, he appeared in a career-high 114 games. Now, entering his age-34 season, the New Mexico native may be asked to catch more often than he’s done since 2021.
Over the last two seasons and 746 plate appearances, Tellez has an 86 OPS+. This year, he’ll be playing home games at baseball’s most extreme pitcher’s park.
Bliss is a good defender and a stolen base threat. Whether his offense will justify his starting gig is unclear. Perhaps Young gets a chance if Bliss were to falter. But he’s an unknown quantity, too.
Perhaps Polanco’s struggles were rooted in his balky knee. Then again, strike outs have been on a steady climb for a half decade and he’s entering his age-32 season.
Robles probably doesn’t repeat his tremendous 2024 success. Still, if he reaches base at an average rate, the former top-five prospect will be extremely valuable.
Having said all that, I lean towards cautious optimism with this offense. The current stable of hitters may not be as dynamic as fans would prefer. But it’s better than last year’s group. This may be all that’s needed to propel the Mariners into the postseason.
Then again, it’ll be months before we know whether my confidence in the lineup was justified, or whether the team squandered another opportunity to play meaningful October baseball.
Opening Day can’t get here soon enough.
My Oh My…